Getting close to the bubble with black 66. (2 Viewers)

[JustinInMN]

With that in mind, I'm gonna go nuts and go for an overbet shove. You bust either way if you're behind, but an overbet shove may look like enough of a bluff that Villain may just snap it off with a bluff-catcher.

My concern here is you let the Ax or random -x hands get away that may call a small sizing. If we overbet we are really hoping to be against exactly AJ or hoping the villian isn't terribly price sensitive.

 

[BGinGA]

I think that's seeing monsters under the bed.

Sometimes when you see monsters under the bed, there's actually one under there. Just sayin'....

As somebody else posted elsewhere here recently, that little voice in your head is usually a better player than you are.

 

[BGinGA]

Personally, I wouldn't chase a flush draw unless I had the in my hand. I guess that makes me a nit!

But would you chase a flush draw with the in your hand if the was on the board? Same nut flush draw...

 

[Darson]

But would you chase a flush draw with the in your hand if the was on the board? Same nut flush draw...

I would have folded pre with and another heart to a min raise on the bubble. If i'm stacked, I may play it. But then I'm a crappy poker player.

 

[Steve Birrer]

All these lines of thinking are why I like bigger bets along the way. I am happy to win decent pots and not get into a potential predicament. But the check/calling on three streets has certainly set bells off in my head.

So what to do on the river.
1. Check has some merit. It does let Villain pressure Hero if he bets big. But you don't get raised all in. If he shoves then you are in a fix.
2. Bet on the small side. May encourage Villain to stay with a strong A or two pair. But then what to do if he raises or shoves?
3. Bet big. Forget value just tell Villain I have the best hand. Problem here is that to me only one of two things happens here. He calls or shoves nd in either case I think a set of 6s is beat. Or he folds.

So to me the best option is a smallish size bet.

 

[CraigT78]

The hands that beat 66 seem so unlikely here based on Villain's line that I don't think we should worry about them

With this said, I'm betting to get called and if a shove happens next, so be it. I'm not open shoving as if it leads to a fold, I've lost value.

 

[v1pe]

Beeeettttttt. This check/call line certainly has me a bit concerned, but we've given him a pretty good price on each street to call down. Something like KJhh, KQhh, KThh, QThh, or QJhh seems very very likely to me here. Yes, he could have played JJ passively on the turn but I think both that and the check on the river make it pretty unlikely. Yes, he could have played AA mega passively too, but I heavily discount it. I'm heavily weighting him towards combo draws and pair+draw type hands.

I could get behind a smallish bet for value or an overbet, depending on the player type and hero's image. I'm not sure we are getting looked up by worse than AJ, A3, A6, AT, AQ, AK, KJ, or QJ here. I'm probably betting smaller (~15BBs) and hoping for a crying call.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I like a slightly less than half pot bet (say 15-18bb).

I think it's most likely to get value out of a mid-strength hand and also has the best chance to induce a shove, which I'm snap-calling.

 

[bivey]

I know this hand intimately. But with villain checking the river, it appears as played he has missed a flush draw or has a weak ace. If that’s the case, inducing a bluff is probably path of most profit.

Just because this is a format where we see some tough stuff, the far more common situation is that you are betting for value here. How much value does villIn typically hold? Two pair seems best holding to me, but more likely a whiff or single pair. I bet relatively small to induce a bluff.

I like Toms post, but I disagree that villain has enough of a holding to call the overbet very often.

Smallish value bet. Maybe similar to turn bet. 12-15BB.

 

[ChaosRock]

I know this hand intimately.

Many hours and drinks discussing this hand (and others), man... (y) :thumbsup:

 

[CraigT78]

Waiting for the results is worse than busting out of a tournament and waiting for the cash game to start.

 

[ChaosRock]

I think just like the other streets, with the possible exception of the pre-flop action in which some were advocating either a fold or a limp, the main variable and source or divergency was betting sizing. And that is absolutely fine in my book since that's one of the things I kept thinking the most about this hand. And of curse, what really matters is the reason each one of you would bet a certain way, and those reason were across the board. Great seeing all the perspectives. I guess I should point out there was also a suggestion of a check behind on the River, so it wasn't unanimous that Hero should value bet
So because the discussion on this decision point was about bet sizing, I didn't think there's much need to drag the discussion further on Hero's decision at this point: So Hero pondered many of the consideration you guys laid out here. Not as in depth of course as I had just a couple of minutes, or less to act. I thought I could get value from Villain's good Ax, 2-P and 33, but one of the things I did not do at the time was to consider what would happen if Villan was to shove. Yep, I should have. Should have had a plan. But anyways. Pot is about 42BB and I went smallish, with 20BB, so ⅓ of my stack. As probably all of you are expecting, Villain shoves. Action to Hero?

Pre-Flop (2.5BB)
Hero (80BB) opens for 2.5BB
CO (30BB) Calls
SB (85BB) Calls

Flop (9.5BB)
SB (83BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (77.5BB) bets 5BB
CO (27.5BB) Folds

Turn (19.5BB)
SB (78BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (72.5BB) bets 11BB

River (41.5BB)
SB (67BB) Checks/Shoves for Hero's remaining 41.4BB)
Hero (61.5BB) bets 20BB/?

 

[JustinInMN]

Call. I'm guessing the way you talk about this hand you're beat somehow, but you can beat aces up and lower set.

If you have bet fold hands they should look more like AK and AQ. Three sixes isn't the top of your range, but it's close. Call.

 

[Poker Zombie]

Yep. Definitely a monster under the bed.

 

[colter ripton]

Definatley a call. I dont think there is any way to fold here. In a cash game it's a snap call, for my tournament I probably think about it for a min but it's still a pretty standard/easy call.

 

[JustinInMN]

I just realized what's going to happen

Spoiler

Hero folds and is shown

 

[bivey]

I call all day. I wanted to induce the bluff. Here it is. Unless you sense he bet this way because he wants a call...

What hands realistically beat you?
AA is legit but played strangely.
52h and 75h make sense. Limited info on villain. If he has these hands, kudos, you pay him off, game over.
33 yatzee
JJ I guess. But like the aces, certain streets make no sense. I’m paying it off.

The big limitation here is we don’t known villain at all. Info like would he push top two on the river? or is he capable of bluff shoving? would be useful here.

So what do we think his bluff % is? Critical info we don’t have.

 

[ChaosRock]

If you have bet fold hands they should look more like AK and AQ. Three sixes isn't the top of your range, but it's close. Call.

I guess the above is kinda the crux of the situation. Yes, I'd definitely have room in my river bet for some folds. Not only value hands but also or . So is a set of 6 part of that range of part of my shove/calling range? I definitely have way more AA and JJ than Villain for example. But more than that, how and when you deviate from range reading and MCF when you don't really know if Villain is playing optimal (I'm using this term loosely of course) and have some bluff there as well, even a hand like . Does he have enough value hands he is shoving that we beat? Do we have a bluff catcher?

 

[JustinInMN]

he have enough value hands he is shoving that we beat? Do we have a bluff catcher?

I think so, I think you probably take this line with your AK, AQ type hands. Villian has all the aces up in his range I'd assume and may have played this just to trap the river on a clean runout.

 

[Poker Zombie]

Since I would have been over-betting after the flop, there is no way I'd be anything but pot-committed here. You don't have the nuts, but anything he played that beats you was played poorly to get here. Call and wince.

 

[ChaosRock]

So what do we think his bluff % is? Critical info we don’t have.

I guess he could be bluff shoving with ,

 

[bivey]

Yes of course Paulo. I neglected to comment on what does it look like hero has? AA/big pair and AXs certainly dominate, especially the latter. A shove could represent two pair in that case but you’ve already bet 1/3 your stack.

 

[ChaosRock]

Yes of course Paulo. I neglected to comment on what does it look like hero has? AA/big pair and AXs certainly dominate, especially the latter. A shove could represent two pair in that case but you’ve already bet 1/3 your stack.

I guess to be way more direct, since you set it up for me: Does Villain shove his stack with AJ or 33?

 

[ChaosRock]

I think so, I think you probably take this line with your AK, AQ type hands. Villian has all the aces up in his range I'd assume and may have played this just to trap the river on a clean runout.

So you think Villain shoves with his As-up? Would you? Not making any judgments, really want to know if you would...

 

[power13]

I would call. There is some value that you beat, and some bluffs that could take this line vs a small bet. There is so little value that beats you. 7h5h kind of adds up but that is one combo. It ultimately comes down to personal preference though. If you care a lot about min cashing then lay it down, you still have a reasonable stack. But if you call and win here you have a great stack to go very deep. And you are not definitely beat here, you are up against pocket 3s or AJ more than a higher set or straight. Unfortunately you can't always wait for the absolute nuts in tournaments given the time pressure.

 

[ChaosRock]

I would call. There is some value that you beat, and some bluffs that could take this line vs a small bet. There is so little value that beats you. 7h5h kind of adds up but that is one combo. It ultimately comes down to personal preference though. If you care a lot about min cashing then lay it down, you still have a reasonable stack. But if you call and win here you have a great stack to go very deep. And you are not definitely beat here, you are up against pocket 3s or AJ more than a higher set or straight. You can't only wait for the absolute nuts and expect to win tournaments.

I wasn't concerned about min cashing whatsoever. In those big tourneys, I wanna go as far as I can and try to play without much care, ie: how I think it's the right play for that street. However, I do question if some of bet sizing were aimed too finely to get max value as opposed to lower a bit of variance and maybe get some fold I wouldn't otherwise. So playing more like cash than a tourney, really.

But anyways, back to the value hands that Villain shoves with AJ or 33, is he counting on Hero calling with AK or A3, maybe an AJ chop?

 

[ChaosRock]

I think so, I think you probably take this line with your AK, AQ type hands. Villian has all the aces up in his range I'd assume and may have played this just to trap the river on a clean runout.

Very true, that's the line I'd take with AK/AQ. But do I call a shove with those hands?

 

[colter ripton]

Only hand that has you beat that this line seems reasonable for is 75 of hearts. I think if he had jj or aa he would have put in a raise on the turn.

I think he very well might shove aces up. He would definatley shove 33, and he might shove on some bluffs.

Your line with the smallish bets does not seem particularly strong. It would look like, atleast to me, that you had an Ak or Aq type hand. Maybe he thinks his two pair is good, maybe he thinks he can push you off too pair. I just dont see how I could fold a set on that board.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I guess to be way more direct, since you set it up for me: Does Villain shove his stack with AJ or 33?

Many villains do, because you have a lot of big aces and aces up in your range, almost never a straight, and sets have less weight given his holdings and your UTG+1 preflop raise.

As stated earlier, I happily call the shove expecting to see a lot of hands I beat.

 

[power13]

[QUOTE="But anyways, back to the value hands that Villain shoves with AJ or 33, is he counting on Hero calling with AK or A3, maybe an AJ chop?[/QUOTE]

I think a bluff shove is more likely than a value shove with 2 pair. I think a shove with 3s is possible though I think we would have seen a raise before now.

I think check shove on a bluff isn't a crazy line. Seeing worse value is possible but less likely imo.

I still feel like this is a profitable call if tournament life is not an overwhelming factor for you.