Getting close to the bubble with black 66. (1 Viewer)

[WedgeRock]

Easy fold.

Why?

Spoiler

Seriously, don't click unless you want a hand reveal.

Spoiler

I checked your name on WSOP.com and saw you didn't cash this event.. so I assume you called and busted before the cash.

 

[power13]

Any physical reads coming off villain?

 

[ChaosRock]

Any physical reads coming off villain?

None. I was focusing a little bit on Villain but was more concern (right or wrongly) in running thought some of the possible hands he would take this line with, both value and bluffs.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Well, I think given the possible range of hands villain can have here plus stack and pot sizes this is a must call, our hand is just too strong to fold. Villain could make this play with AJ and smaller sets.

The worrying part is that if villain is competent he knows we're essentially pot committed and should be stacking off the majority of the time here. If we are beat I'm leaning towards being the most likely culprit, with JJ next in line.

That being said, I stack off here. The combos of hands we beat in villains range are just too great. Not to mention there's a LOT of terrible players out there that would think they "trapped" you with their AK in a hand like this too.

EDIT: I don't think Villain CAN be bluffing here very often, because of stack to pot sizes, he has no fold equity. That being said, he could believe top two or a smaller set are ahead of you and put you on an AK/AQ type hand that has to pay him off now so I still call

 

[power13]

None. I was focusing a little bit on Villain but was more concern (right or wrongly) in running thought some of the possible hands he would take this line with, both value and bluffs.

Yep easy(?) to do this over a few hours in a forum let alone in-game.

 

[JustinInMN]

So you think Villain shoves with his As-up? Would you? Not making any judgments, really want to know if you would...

I think this is a reasonable line for a player to take with aces-up. I might personally (specifically with AJ for sure), depending on how wide I think the opponent is calling. I might check call too if I think the opponent is on the bluffy side.

 

[ChaosRock]

That being said, I stack off here. The combos of hands we beat in villains range are just too great. Not to mention there's a LOT of terrible players out there that would think they "trapped" you with their AK in a hand like this too.

For whatever it's wroth, I think it's more likely he is shoving with a hand like or or something akin to that than with . The guys seemed to be really good. As I said, all patched up. I don't think many players shove there at all tbh. maybe at home games.

 

[Anthony Martino]

For whatever it's wroth, I think it's more likely he is shoving with a hand like or or something akin to that than with . The guys seemed to be really good. As I said, all patched up. I don't think many players shove there at all tbh. maybe at home games.

The players at my local room will shove 47k pre at the 50/100 level with pocket 5's.

I don't assume many of my opponents actually have a clue

 

[JustinInMN]

For whatever it's wroth, I think it's more likely he is shoving with a hand like or or something akin to that than with . The guys seemed to be really good. As I said, all patched up. I don't think many players shove there at all tbh. maybe at home games.

I would agree with this, a player check-shoving AK is turning this hand into a bluff just like he would be with busted hearts. (maybe trying to get you to fold a chop?) I guess that means he's probably representing Aces-up for value. But if you think there's any chance this player is capable of this with hearts I still say this is a call regardless of how he plays AK.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I have trouble seeing villain run a bluff here with KQ or KJ of hearts

It makes no sense. The flush draw missed, and there is zero fold equity

They're more likely to run a bluff if they think YOU whiffed the flush draw. But if they block you from having that nut draw, it's less likely that you were drawing as well

 

[ChaosRock]

...and there is zero fold equity

I disagree with that personally. I still have 40BB and will certainly have a value bet/fold range on that river, not to mention some bluffs.

 

[v1pe]

I'm calling, if we really have no reads we can fall back on our hand distribution and check to see how high up in our range we are. I think the only better hands we show up with in yours situation are AA and JJ...so we are near the very top of our range. We have all the AK AQ and AJ hands, we have KJhh, and KQhh we might be triplling off with, we probably have some more hands I'm not thinking of this moment.

We bet small enough that although we look strong I think we can be perceived as still having some bluffs and also some stronger Aces.

Don't think we can reasonably get away from this one.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I disagree with that personally. I still have 40BB and will certainly have a value bet/fold range on that river, not to mention some bluffs.

You're right, my bad. Just got home from work, was thinking you both had 40 bigs and you were betting half of your stack for some reason.

Well, yes, this makes your call even easier, because now Villain can have bluffs. And your bets haven't signaled any super strength to be able to stack off, so now Villain CAN be bluffing here to try and get you to fold one pair hands since 40 bigs is still playable, and he can also think he's value shoving with top two or a set in this spot as well.

 

[power13]

Just running some equities on this from the villain's perspective if he had 7h5h. Obviously the call pre-flop is loose. On the flop, he has about 40% equity vs your continuing range assuming you had a 15% PFR pre-flop and 40% continuation range. The turn is now like 25% equity, so now we are in the range where it's dicey for him to continue. He has decent but still slightly -EV direct odds, but you have a lot of better flush draws in your range so I don't think he has great implied odds except hitting a non-heart 4 which are only 3 outs for him. I think it's a very marginal call for him out of position since the flush coming in wouldn't make him feel great. And a lot of his equity on the river is him pairing one of his cards which would not actually be that helpful out of position facing a 3rd barrel from a pre-flop raiser -- he'd need to be ready to bluff catch with a super weak hand on a board where there is a lot of big value potential for you. So if he did call the turn with that hand it was super marginal. If you read him as a good player I would have further discounted that possibility. A bigger turn bet would have made it even harder for him to call with that, but even as played I think it's a really bad call and just bad luck for you if he hit one of his 3 clean outs.

 

[Highli99]

We’ll see how it plays out but this hand illustrates why value bets on the river are a little dicey in tournaments, especially in big pots.

 

[Mr Tree]

I call. The villain’s story doesn’t make sense the way this hand has played out which means either he has played an exceptionally long con or is bluffing/overbetting here. I expect to show up with the winner more often than not. Never underestimate villain’s abilities to make strange plays that seemingly make no sense.

 

[Mr Tree]

I know this hand intimately. But with villain checking the river, it appears as played he has missed a flush draw or has a weak ace. If that’s the case, inducing a bluff is probably path of most profit.

Just because this is a format where we see some tough stuff, the far more common situation is that you are betting for value here. How much value does villIn typically hold? Two pair seems best holding to me, but more likely a whiff or single pair. I bet relatively small to induce a bluff.

I like Toms post, but I disagree that villain has enough of a holding to call the overbet very often.

Smallish value bet. Maybe similar to turn bet. 12-15BB.

Are you saying you think the villain does have enough to call an overbet? Because I was saying I doubted he did.

 

[bivey]

Are you saying you think the villain does have enough to call an overbet? Because I was saying I doubted he did.

Oops, sorry, thanks for correcting me.

 

[Anthony Martino]

 

[Mr Tree]

Oops, sorry, thanks for correcting me.

Yup, I am pretty sure we were both advocating the exact same response so that’s why I was confused.

 

[bivey]

Yup, I am pretty sure we were both advocating the exact same response so that’s why I was confused.

Go back to sleep

 

[Mr Tree]

Go back to sleep

I wish

 

[ChaosRock]

Alright guys, no more waiting...

I guess I hinted about my thought process facing the shove a bit last night. Realistically, is the second best hand I have in this spot. maaaaaybe the third as more often than not, I might be check/calling on the flop instead of leading. So the only hand I have that is better than is . So my hand is part of my top 6 combos. I certainly get to the river with way, way more combos that. So in my mind, if I fold the set here I am folding way too much.

However, also realistically (and that's why I made a comment about playing your ranges correctly vs. what Villain might be actually doing), I remember thinking although in theory Villain has to have some bluffs here, and even possibly some Value check/shoves that Hero beats, I'm not sure he does. I think even very, very good players are not willing to risk their tournament lives on thin/bluff shove against a UTG+open. Again, realistically, I think Villain might just call with all his value hands unless it's a hand that beats Hero. If you add Villain's action on the previous streets, he doesn't have many hands that actually beat Hero here, which should be a reason to cut the number of his bluffs also. He pretty much never has AA. JJ is a possibility although more often that not he is raising the turn, maybe even donking the turn. 33 is a possibility but a shove starts to become less profitable, although it is still probably a good shove. Why do I said that? Well, here's Hero holding and thinking about folding. A 2-P in Hero's hand looks a heck lot like a bluff catcher (just from a perspective of what Hero would call the shove with). And if I put myself in Villain's position, I'm not certain I'd shove AJ there.

So there's this dichotomy between those two ways of thinking.

So Hero went to the tank and start thinking about all those things on the spot. Ultimately he decides to make the call. Villain shows which is the only value hand that really makes sense. The results are not really that important tbh. I think the two point of this hand for me were: the betting size on all streets and ultimately, how many combos should Hero really call on the River shove when it's not likely Villain is doing it without the nuts (or a hand that beats Hero).

I think regarding betting size, I probably played a little too much like cash. I was just greedy trying to extract all the value I could and it might not have been the best way of going about it. Not sure it would have change the outcome but it would have increase the chance of a fold, specially on the turn. But again @power13 ran the numbers and it was a bad call by Villain vs Hero's range. So isn't that what we want?

Regarding the number of combos to call the River check/shove, I thought it was the right call when I made it. After the call, I discussed the hand with some friends playing the tourney also, and they unanimously said it's almost impossible for Villain to make this move light/bluffing. I think I tend to agree with that, although here in the thread, it was almost unanimous Hero had to call.

Anyways, great input by all! It is very much appreciated!

Pre-Flop (2.5BB)
Hero (80BB) Opens for 2.5BB
CO (30BB) Calls
SB (85BB) Calls

Flop (9.5BB)
SB (83BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (77.5BB) Bets 5BB
CO (27.5BB) Folds

Turn (19.5BB)
SB (78BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (72.5BB) Bets 11BB

River (41.5BB)
SB (67BB) Checks/Shoves for Hero's remaining 41.4BB)
Hero (61.5BB) Bets 20BB/Calls and hit the showers.

 

[detroitdad]

Paulo, I cold read your hand analysis all day long.

Thank you for posting.

 

[upNdown]

I think the two point of this hand for me were: the betting size on all streets and ultimately, how many combos should Hero really call on the River shove when it's not likely Villain is doing it without the nuts (or a hand that beats Hero).

How about the river bet?
You were given a chance to showdown for 40bb. I realize some guys WANTED to get stacks in on the river, so I know their answer to this question. But that wasn't your intention. So my question is, in a tournament (where the chips in your stack are arguably worth more than the chips in the pot) do you reconsider the wisdom of that bet?

 

[ChaosRock]

How about the river bet?
You were given a chance to showdown for 40bb. I realize some guys WANTED to get stacks in on the river, so I know their answer to this question. But that wasn't your intention. So my question is, in a tournament (where the chips in your stack are arguably worth more than the chips in the pot) do you reconsider the wisdom of that bet?

I personally think the river bet is mandatory. There's a LOT of hands that can call that bet. I am not as fixated in getting stacks in as I am about that specific spot, in this case, what should I do when facing a check on the river with third set, without much chance of Villain having any of the top two sets. So no, I would not reconsider that bet at all. As I said, I think it's mandatory. Jut my opinion though.

 

[power13]

What a bummer. I think villain made multiple mistakes -- calling very wide pre-flop, calling with almost no safe outs on the turn, and then checking the nuts on the river when you could have easily been checking back TPTK or 2 pair. But it had the effect of even further disguising the one magical combo that he could realistically have to beat you. I think it's definitely helpful to analyze these spots, but my opinion is you played this well and the planets just aligned against you. It's easy to second-guess your play in these situations, but I still think 9 times out of 10 here you end up as a big stack on the bubble, get to bully the small stacks and are set up for a deep run, not thinking about this hand for another minute. In hindsight you can say he is never betting a bluff or worse value on the river, but as is very evident in this hand, people make big mistakes all the time. it just happened that this guy's mistake wasn't the mistake you wanted.

 

[BGinGA]

To me, this is the hardest decision of the hand, and one I anticipated. I prefer a smaller river bet, but am still folding to the check-shove as played with 40bb back. I don't think he's bluffing here ever, and expect to see 75hh or JJ if shown. Anything else with showdown value he's just calling.

Even though 66 is at the top of our range, sometimes you're just beat and there is a monster under the bed.

 

[Highli99]

Good example of +EV cash move that can be -EV in a tournement. You only live once in a tournament. Unless it’s a rebuy.

 

[Poker Zombie]

It should be a rule: All hand analysis threads should be done Paulo style, with the complete recap, so I dont have to scroll back through 6 pages, or remember the action over 3 days. I'm not doing either, so I rarely reach the outcome because I have the attention span of a gnat.

I just wonder if my strategy of an overbet after the flop would have ended the hand. Smaller profit than you could/should have extracted, but tournaments aren't about stacking your opponent, they're about chipping them down and survival.