PAHWM - 1/2 NLHE Deep Dive at Hollywood Casino St. Louis (7 Viewers)

PokerDogDoc

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The Setup
Living in Columbia, MO, I live 2 hours from the closest casino with a poker room so I don't get to play live 1/2 or 1/3 NLHE as often as I'd like. I recently accompanied my wife on a conference to St. Louis and thought I'd play during the day while she was at her meeting and use it as a great way to get "warmed up" for our upcoming trip to Vegas in late May.

I've been working on my live game strategy while playing in some local home games, especially improving on categorizing my opponent's "player type" so I can understand their strategies when in the hand (i.e. TAG, LAG, OMC, NIT, Reg, Rec, Whale, Calling Station, Maniac, etc.). I've been also working on hand-ranging my opponent, and assessing and knowing when to try and realize my equity (or fold) on each street.

I realize that early afternoon on a weekday is not the ideal time to find a soft game at the casino, but that's what I had to work with, so keeping that in mind, let's dive in.

The Game
Hollywood Casino St. Louis, 3:30 pm, Monday 4/27
New table of $1/$2 NLHE, 9-handed
Max buy-in $300
The entire table is composed of OMC's (Google it if you don't know) and late middle aged/semi-retired men who seem to be local Regs
We're 1.5 hours into play at this table so I've got a pretty good feel for all of them

The Players
Villain is ~55-60 years old (like me) and has been pretty chatty. Seems to use poker as a socialization event. Likes to win but doesn't sulk when he loses.
Villain typically plays a tighter range but not afraid to mix it up multiway.... let's call him a "solid" but still unbalanced and profitable OMC/Reg with moderate aggression. Lost $150 in a 3-way all-in 1 hour ago (that did NOT include our Hero) when his QQ ran into KK and AK (AK hit the A on the turn to win it) and laughed it off, but keeps bringing it back up in conversation.

Hero is 61 and is a solid Rec who only gets to play live poker in a casino a few times a year (and once a year in Vegas) and plays an exploitation strategy vs. opponents. Aggressive when appropriate, passive at other times, willing to bluff slightly more than typical at these low stakes if the story and opponent makes sense, but tends to over-fold vs. push back from most OMCs (who always have HUGE hands if in the pot) and large River bets (which are rarely bluffed at these stakes).

The Hand, and The Play
Effective stack is $315 (Hero); Villain covers me by $50

PREFLOP
UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 all limp for $2
LJ (Villain) raises to $25 (standard open is $10)
HJ & CO fold
BTN (Hero) looks down at :js::ts: , considers for 10 seconds and elects to call*
SB, BB, and all limpers fold
2 to the flop, Hero has position
Pot = $59
SPR = ~5+

*When in-position I tend to 3-bet (~2.5x the last bet amount + dead money) in an attempt to isolate the raiser with my hands that have good equity vs. early opens. This is mainly QQ+, AK, and good suited combo draws that can make Broadway straights or flushes. If I don't take it down pre-flop I'll at least feel good heading to the flop and go from there, even when multiway. Yes, this is unbalanced (purposefully so) as I have no bluffs here, but at these stakes I've found that opponents assume that I have bluffs in my range here because they've caught me bluffing at a higher rate than the rest of the table in other (but smaller) pots.

However, given my stack size at this table and against these super-tight players, I didn't want to 3-bet to $75 into an already bloated pot and be pot-committed before the flop if called by the Villain. The pot would have been ~$160, leaving me with an SPR of only 1.5 and I didn't want to 3-bet / fold if 4-bet. In my mind, there's no doubt that I'm behind here but wanted to realize my flop equity and implied value if I hit, so I elected to call and re-evaluate on the flop instead, anticipating the rest of the table would fold and we'd go heads up. Success.

Villain’s range = uncapped but tight: 99+, KT+. I didn't see him doing this with anything weaker (i.e. QJs) from what I'd seen in the last 90 mins of playing together... yes, these guys are that tight and he's the "loosest" of the bunch!

I discounted any of the above hands with a J or T in them as I've got those cards in my hand, so it's less likely (but not impossible) for him to have those.

Hero's play so far?
Agree? Disagree?
Would you play this differently?
 
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Honestly I think this is just a fold. That raise size from that type of player is usually pretty value-heavy, and even with position JTs is going to struggle to realize equity against a tight range.
Suited connectors do a lot better against wider ranges and multiway pots, not tight heads up ones like this.
 
I probably agree its just a fold with low ev with your exact holding against his perceved value range in this spot. While discounted, JJ, TT, AJs, even KJs have you flopping pretty thin, etc. That said, I probably call anyway, since it could be a fun hand, its 1-2, and there's a nice [narrow] range of flops that will give you some nice implied odds against the top end of his range - AA, KK, QQ, AKs - to continue profitably. I agree with not 3 betting for the same reasons stated, but recognize given the low ev and just the call (leaving his range uncapped), puts you in the challenging position of having little or no clue where you stand on most flops - but maybe thats the fun part! lol
 
I fold here as well, your moderate hand vs tight player making a pre-flop big bet. From your description he most likely has two overcards (probably even the same two; QQ or KK). I guess for 25 you can see if you nail the flop but I'd rather do that at a cheaper price on another hand.
 
I'm shocked by the people saying to fold.

You're in position. Suited connectors that can hit flushes, straights, and flop two pairs that crack those hands that the OMC's raise.

Call all day and see a flop.

Call>>>Raise>Fold
 
I'm shocked by the people saying to fold.

You're in position. Suited connectors that can hit flushes, straights, and flop two pairs that crack those hands that the OMC's raise.

Call all day and see a flop.

Call>>>Raise>Fold
It's the price for me and the opponent, 12-13 BB to see this flop. In another situation can def see calling.
 
I identify with Villain. While keeping an open mind, that over-sized preflop raise feels like TT or JJ. My open mind range is 99+, KQs, AJs, AQo with a tiny splash of "what the hell?"

Hero's hand is speculative. The SPR is going to be low enough to favor one (top)pair hands just matching villain's range. This would be a fold for me.

If Hero continues, he will need to bluff a significant part of the time. OMC are relatively easy to bluff. RIO issues are fully in play. Let's hope villain isn't tricky/trappy because that style of OMC is getting all of Hero's stack as he snaps off a bluff.

Go get 'em tiger. -=- DrStrange

PS for those advocating calling because JTs is such a good speculative hand - - - - If the SPR weren't five, I could be persuaded. Speculative hands need deep stacks to thrive. The villain set the price too high to support JTs as a viable hand to continue with
 
I’m calling all day. If the guy flips AA over and shows me preflop, I’m still calling in position and seeing a flop. You literally have the best hand in the deck to crack AA. For $25, yep, I’m calling hoping he has aces and I can get his whole stack, as no one folds Aces at this level. If you stone cold whiff on the flop, then you fold. $25 to potentially stack this guy. Sold.
 
I identify with Villain. While keeping an open mind, that over-sized preflop raise feels like TT or JJ. My open mind range is 99+, KQs, AJs, AQo with a tiny splash of "what the hell?"

Hero's hand is speculative. The SPR is going to be low enough to favor one (top)pair hands just matching villain's range. This would be a fold for me.

If Hero continues, he will need to bluff a significant part of the time. OMC are relatively easy to bluff. RIO issues are fully in play. Let's hope villain isn't tricky/trappy because that style of OMC is getting all of Hero's stack as he snaps off a bluff.

Go get 'em tiger. -=- DrStrange

PS for those advocating calling because JTs is such a good speculative hand - - - - If the SPR weren't five, I could be persuaded. Speculative hands need deep stacks to thrive. The villain set the price too high to support JTs as a viable hand to continue with
I agree with the thought process, but what am I missing with the SPR here? Pot is $60 with $290 behind. Deep SPR scenarios like this are the exact times to play these hands in position, no?

If the flop comes with all red cards and no jacks or tens, hero can fold and get away cheaply.
 
I agree with the thought process, but what am I missing with the SPR here? Pot is $60 with $290 behind. Deep SPR scenarios like this are the exact times to play these hands in position, no?

If the flop comes with all red cards and no jacks or tens, hero can fold and get away cheaply.
And since hero states he’s playing exploitive, what better way to exploit someone than to take his rebuy when he’s tilting from getting Aces cracked. Obviously no guarantees, but that’s the upside in my mind vs a $25 call.
 
Agree with @Jers28 and @JMC9389 I’m calling to see if I smash the flop.

If miss flop and villain keeps betting, then easy fold. Speculative call with potential for big payoff for flush and straight draws etc.

The fact the table has been so Nitty and OMC, you can put villain on a fairly tight range so you can also exploit that if the flop has no face cards and they potentially check /back off.
 
And since hero states he’s playing exploitive, what better way to exploit someone than to take his rebuy when he’s tilting from getting Aces cracked. Obviously no guarantees, but that’s the upside in my mind vs a $25 call.
The best way to exploit an OMC raising from $2 to $25 is to fold.

I get that there's implied odds if we slam a flop, but that's why he's laying a horrible price. Just too much to burn hoping to get him. Do we feel safe when we hit J 8 2? How many times are we still dominated by QQ/KK/AA? Or he shoves on an ace-high, 2 spade board?

Call and gamble and have fun, but our speculative calls make the $25 bet profitable instead of letting the OMC grab the blinds. And we have 5 players left to act, any of those others limping Aces to let someone hang themselves? Are any capable of squeezing us?
 
the odds of outflopping AA here is pretty slim.. 5-6%.. so you would need implied pot odds of ~20:1 to make this make sense imo, and you're only getting 12:1 if he does indeed stack off.
IMO its also not a guarantee old man coffee gets his stack in with AA if you do hit it hard -- three spades, 7 8 9. Some are treating it like its a near certainty.
 
You can and probably should fold but also calling isn’t a disaster. I think I give action here if the blinds and limpers seem passive enough.
 
Front door spades, :as: on the flop. Boom, smashed it.
 
This is just a fold pre. Even in position, you just need much larger implied odds to continue than 11 to 1. So often, the flop is just going to miss you and this type of villain is just going to fire near pot with his overpair. You very often won't have a big enough SPR to get him off TPTK or better.
 
Okay, let's move on, shall we?

All valid points made by all the PCF'ers chiming in... maybe some additional background on the Villain will flesh this out, too.

When Villain lost $150 on the 3-way all-in hand I mentioned above (holding QQ), he opened for $10, got 3-bet to $35 by a super-nit (AK), then the 3-bet was called by 3rd super-nit (KK).... Back to Villain who 4-bet jams his QQ for $150 effective (then call, call).
So in my mind he's not so nitty that he won't put a good (but not nutted hand) at risk.

I'm usually willing to gamble a bit at such low stakes since I'm in position and the absolute $ amount at risk is relatively low... let's see if I can see the flop heads up and re-evaluate as needed.
-------------------

PREFLOP
UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 all limp for $2
LJ (Villain) raises to $25 (standard open is $10)
HJ & CO fold
BTN (Hero) looks down at :js::ts: , considers for 10 seconds and elects to call*
SB, BB, and all limpers fold
2 to the flop, Hero has position
Pot = $59
SPR = ~5+

FLOP
:ks::jd::th:

Villain thinks for 10 seconds and.... CHECKS (say what?)

Hero has middle and bottom pair, a backdoor royal flush, and a backdoor straight.
Hero decides to..... ? (please justify your answer)
 
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Oooo juicy flop.

You can be fairly confident now your backdoor flush is probably the best with :ks: out. Villain might have :as: Kx for top pair, very unlikely he’ll have the nut straight/flush draw :as: :qs:.

Worst case scenario, he’s just made a cowboy or jiggities set. Best case is he has top pair top kicker AK.

I would bet here, probably 75%- pot for $45-$60 and see how he reacts.
 
Smash. Bet half pot.

Aces are still calling here. AK too. If you're up against Kings, Jacks or 10's, GG, rebuy.

Best flop you could hope for here with this hand unless you flop a boat or a flush.
 
Clear check back for me. While we miss out on value from some of the weaker combos in his range like 99, AJs, QQ, AK, I feel like there's enough AQ, KK, JJ, and TT in his range that he might slow play to warrant pot control at this point.
 
Everyone saying check, why?

Hero is ahead a good deal of the time and you're missing a ton of value against sticky villains.
 
Great comments so far... keep them coming.
I've gotta get into a late meeting but will update this in a bit
 

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