PAHWM - 1/3 at the Aria (2 Viewers)

[PokerDogDoc]

@JustinInMN , it seems that you and I have very similar (identical) playing styles and thought processes.

I agree with other commenters that I could have check-shoved the turn on the strength of my combo draw, or even lead shove on the river in hopes of getting a crying call—but happy how I played it.

But villain's river shove is a punt, no other way to think of it.

Bottom line, his shove ensures he loses the maximum every time he's beat and never gains himself any value when he's ahead.

Agreed. I don’t actually believe what he said about me having the flush, I think he was just trying saving face… rather than honestly saying that he just couldn’t give up top set and got married to his hand.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[JustinInMN]

I agree with other commenters that I could have check-shoved the turn on the strength of my combo draw, or even lead shove on the river in hopes of getting a crying call—but happy how I played it.

Maybe, but I really think as an infrequent raiser, villain just doesn't have folding hands very often here. I think he probably has no worse than two tens on the flop as played, maybe he c-bet 99 (which is now a set on the turn) or 88 so he can be shoved off the hand.

We have 12 outs to the nuts, and probably some assumption that the some of the 6 pair outs are good. (Though I don't know how strongly I would count the aces due to the threat of reverse domination if villain has AQ or AT.)

But it is just one card to come and we are about a 3-1 dog if only the outs to the nuts are good and we are trying to check raise a situation without the benefit of fold equity.

I think we check-call any bet on the turn, but it better for us long-term if we don't pay full price since we will miss more than we hit, and playing for the check raise ensures we pay full price.

@JustinInMN , it seems that you and I have very similar (identical) playing styles and thought processes.

Thanks, though I think I may have ranged the villain pretty tightly compared to you and the other commentors based on the infrequent 3-bettor description. That did tip me to the more passive line out of position here.

I also think check-call is a grossly underrated tactic in poker.

 

[dannyssteez]

1/3, 8-Handed at the Aria during the WSOP
No straddle
HERO is UTG with $475
Villain is UTG+1 and the effective stack with $400

Villain is loose-aggressive with a high raise frequency but typical (low) 3-bet frequency for these stakes.

Villain rarely has true bluffs but he bets made hands aggressively… sometimes he has it at showdown, but he’s also frequently getting better hands to fold due to aggressive betting and check-raising.

UTG / Hero = and open raises to $10 (standard for the table)
UTG+1 / Villain = 3-bets small to $25
Folds around to Hero who __________ (folds / calls / 4-bets)

———

don't think you can ever fold this strong of a hand to this sizing, but if you really think his 3 betting range is tight then I'd opt for flatting no need to inflate the pot when your hand is going to be very uncomfortable to play OOP on most flops.

 

[dannyssteez]

Hero’s image is solid, aggressive, and suspected to bluff (which I have), though no one’s called it yet.

Villain has shown aggression on good hands but not always top of range. Based on his play I put the villain on a fairly strong but wide range of 99+, 2 Broadway cards (suited or unsuited).

Villain almost always 3-bets wider to immediately apply pressure, but this is a tiny one.

I’m not ready to play for stacks preflop or lose villain with a big 4-bet if he’s semi-bluffing.

***
UTG / Hero = and open raises to $10 (standard for the table)
UTG+1 / Villain = 3-bets small to $25
Folds around to Hero who CALLS.
Pot is $54, SPR = 7

FLOP


Hero has a gut shot straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and 2 overs
Ranges are fairly close and I’m not sure if I’m ahead or behind, but I’ve got a world of possibilities.

HERO checks… I’m checking my entire range here in flow to see how the VILLAIN plays it.

VILLAIN bets $40

75% pot bet shows strength but the absolute dollar amount seems fair, especially given my hand and implied odds. Plus, VILLAIN loves to stab/overstab flops to apply pressure, even with A high and moderate made hands.

I’m never folding here and I see no reason to raise (better hands don’t fold and worse hands don’t call).
HERO calls to realize equity

TURN


Board is now


Hero still doesn’t have a made hand but has improved to a combo draw: gut shot straight and nut flush draws with 2 over cards.

Hero decides to ___________ (check or lead out).

definitely a check here as played. If villain never 3 bets worse than ace-10 utg+1 here than this board is pretty bad, really only beating AJ so proceed with caution but likely will be priced in to call especially with implied odds, nothing better folds so no point in check raising either.

 

[dannyssteez]

HERO checks turn.

VILLAIN thinks for 15 seconds and bets $100.

Pot is now $234, SPR = 1

Villain has $235 behind

HERO ranges Villain to sets, two-pair, AQ and AJ, along with some bluffs (weak A’s), semi-bluffs (under pairs), and weak moderate made hands (QJ, JT, 98, etc) based on previously shown hands.

I’ve eliminated AA, KK, and AK from his range as he would have 3-bet bigger preflop. I’m interpreting that small 3-bet size as a bit of tentativeness, not trapping.

I feel with the nut flush draw and gunshot to the nut straight + 2 overs that if I hit I’m likely good vs. that range, my hand has about 30-33% equity.

(Someone want to run the numbers on that to confirm?)

So a $100 call to win a total of $334 gives 30% pot odds.

So even though I am probably behind, I’m getting the right odds…

HERO calls $100 and hopes to realize equity on the river.

RIVER is an interesting one


Full board is

Board doesn’t pair (Villain has no full houses) and HERO makes the A-high flush — but it’s only the 3rd nuts, losing to the Q-high straight flush and T-high straight flush).

Do I ever put the Villain on QJd or 76d?

HERO thinks for 30 seconds and ________ (shoves all in, leads for $100, checks)

*post your answer +/- reasoning

easy shove only like a half pot sized bet left, villain is not going to bluff this river enough at all, and has plenty of straights, sets and maybe even overs that will feel obligated to call for such a price.

 

[dannyssteez]

For me, I view “Play A Hand With Me” as sharing interesting hands that can demonstrate how different players can have different strategies—both to illustrate various playing styles (and outcomes) and to generate conversation.

My hands and discussion are also geared to both new and experienced players, so I tend to dive a bit deeper into my game theory to give background and insight to my decision points.

Sharing how you would have played the hand and your feedback is appreciated, but is obviously different from my style of play. In my eyes, neither one is correct or better than the other, just different.


Versus Villain’s specific hand, yes. And if we were playing with face up cards I would have folded on the flop.

But since I don’t know his actual hand, I’m playing my 2 specific cards vs. Villain’s entire range, choosing to make my decisions based on mathematics, saying “what are the odds he’s got …?”

Villain’s assigned range:

View attachment 1688124

My equity calculations vs. that range preflop (63%), flop (even), and turn (34%) are shown below. So it wasn’t until the turn that I was mathematically behind his assigned range which, given the action, I still had as quite wide on the turn.

View attachment 1688125
View attachment 1688126View attachment 1688127

Villain’s turn bet was 75% pot, so I needed 30% equity to mathematically make it profitable to call and continue, playing the 33% odds to make my hand on the river that beats his range.

View attachment 1688129


Agreed. See above pot odds calculation. 33% > 30%, so I make the call and see if I hit the river 1 out of 3 times. This time it did.


I agree, though we differ in terminology. I don’t view it as a “life vest”, I see it as hitting a river that was expected to hit only 1/3 of the time… but I was mathematically getting the right price to do so. If I whiffed (67% chance), then I have to decide whether to fold the river or bluff. In this hand vs. this Villain I would check-fold here.


I also agree… but the Aria wasn’t allowing photos or video at the table.

Thanks again for your comments and feedback.

three betting from utg+1 with j9o is hard to believe lol, If you actually believe this is his range it is 100% a 4bet pre