Hand review in 2-3 (1 Viewer)

[valleychips]

2-3. $300 effective. 9 handed.

I'm in BB with Ad Kd.

5 limpers to me. I make it $25. One caller from MP.

Flop is 4d 5s Ks

I bet $75 (pot) because of all the draws that hit a limp call range.

He calls.

At this point, I think he has 2 pair, a set, a combo draw (like 6s 7s). Not putting him on a weak king. If he'd raised my bet, I would have folded, knowing how these players and how they generally operate.

Turn is 9d. Pot is $215ish.

Now I have even more equity, but still need to deny. I bet $100 or so (half pot). Pot is now $315.

He shoves and has me covered. I only have $100 left, so we can say pot is $515 and my call will make it $615. Now I know he's ahead. But I still think 2 pair, maybe set.

Looking at how much is in the pot plus my equity, I call because I think it's positive EV.

He has 2 pair (4-5). River bricks.

Ran it through odds calculation and I had 36% equity. So according to it, call was correct by the time the turn shove happened. Even when I was first to act on the turn, if I had shoved for my remaining $200 into a pot of $215 and he calls, then I'm essentially in for 30% of the pot, which makes it slightly +EV. If I had any fold equity, all the better.

But would folks have played the hand differently, especially on earlier streets? Was I too worried about letting draws get there? Was this outcome avoidable in any reasonable way? I'm pondering if I should have only bet half pot on the flop or even checked flop... but would that have made it too cheap for people to draw? If I'd done that, he likely would have raised me on the flop... then do I call or just fold? It's easy to say in hindsight that I'd fold, but... if we don't know his hand, couldn't that have been a high equity draw he was holding?

Or... was it fine and I just ran into it?

Thanks!

 

[DrStrange]

Preflop - fine and dandy. The raise got exactly one caller. Pot is ~$60 - $65 = ($25+$25+$3x4 +$2 -rake)

Effective stack is $275. SPR = 4 1/2. Good for "one pair" hands.

Flop - Pot+ sized $75 bet gets called. If Hero is planning a turn shove on a safe card, fine. Otherwise, the price seems a bit steep. Villain reads matter a lot here. Ranging is dependent on the villain. Pot is $210-$215, effective stacks are $200. Perfect for a pot sized shove on a safe turn.

Turn - I think Hero bets too small with a $100 bet. Villain is getting proper odds to call all sorts of draws. Hero is stacking off his last $100 if villain bets it. IF hero knows villain will pay off with a weaker one pair hand, maybe the $100 could be a suck bet to pot commit villain. Personally, I think a jam is best.

As noted, calling the last $100 is easy given Hero's equity. Plus, we don't want to train villains they can bluff shove and get folds in this type of situation.

Can Hero escape the trap? I don't think so. Catching the back door flush draw on the turn locks Hero into playing for stacks.

Sometimes the Villain wins -=- DrStrange

 

[Coyote]

 

[valleychips]

Thanks for the input. Yeah, perhaps half pot on flop is a better move. If he smooth calls, still likely to end up stacking off when that diamond hits on the turn. But perhaps the half pot bet on the flop would have tempted him to raise me, and that could have allowed me to dump the hand given that I don't think this player pool raises with draws/open enders all that much (villain was a stranger to me, so no history-based reads).

Of course, if he just calls half pot flop bet, and then a card completing a draw hits on the turn, maybe I would have been annoyed... or perhaps I could have just checked, he would have bet, and I would have dumped the hand and eaten the loss, knowing that he might not have folded a strong draw regardless of what I did, even if I'd shoved flop. Again, player pool tendencies.

I was betting so strong on the flop because I figured he likely wouldn't fold a draw, so I wanted to extract a lot of money, but at the same time I thought that a set/two pair would still raise me on the flop and allow me to bail... but it's a risk in either direction. Probably best to go half pot and have the escape hatch avail...

Half pot turn bet was to keep villain in with his whole range, given that I gained so much equity and wasn't folding either. To your point, could have just shoved there too.

Again, a smaller flop bet would have give me some room to maneuver here. We probably end up with the same result, but it's a better way to play.

I think I played the hand well enough (though feel free to disagree!), but always trying to improve my execution, even if the outcome wouldn't change in this particular hand.

 

[jxfan]

Personally not a fan of half pot bets, but given your stack size I guess that made sense on the turn. I think a pocket pair would have called you on the flop bet as well, even with the strong bet, so you more so ran into a lucky two pair this time around. Hey, if he's willing to call with 4-5 preflop for 8bb then you'll get your money back next time

 

[valleychips]

Personally not a fan of half pot bets, but given your stack size I guess that made sense on the turn. I think a pocket pair would have called you on the flop bet as well, even with the strong bet, so you more so ran into a lucky two pair this time around. Hey, if he's willing to call with 4-5 preflop for 8bb then you'll get your money back next time

He was likely putting me on an overpair and trying to crack it. If I'd had K-K that would have been great. But yeah he hit it and it was the worst turn for me... unless my flush hit on 5th st haha

 

[DrStrange]

Don't focus solely on the top of villain's range. Keep your eyes on the draws, floats and the weaker one pair hands in villain's range

If villain is playing 45o for a $25 raise, he is playing all sorts of other hands. KQ has the same frequency as 54, ditto KJ and KT or even K9. All sorts of suited cards too. Will villain pay $40 to keep Hero honest with a weaker pocket pair? How about second pair - say 57? Could he float AQ or AJ with the naked ace of spades?

The flop is a pretty good candidate for a c-bet. I play with more than a few people who will float a reasonable flop bet on that board if Hero gives them a chance.

There is plenty of value to extract from a sticky villain. Of course, Hero will want to protect his stack. But don't worry about monsters under the bed unless this villain is that nitty. There are lots more losing hands calling a reasonable flop bet than there are hands than crush Hero's top/Top hand

Just FYI - my default c-bet size heads up is 60% pot. Adjusting as needed for the actual situation in the hand.

 

[Phoe9x]

Just FYI - my default c-bet size heads up is 60% pot. Adjusting as needed for the actual situation in the hand.

I would also like to do around 50% pot on the flop.

Incentivize him to call with his drawing range. Decentivize him from flatting with his great hands (two pair+). If he has a good hand he will want more money on a small bet.

As played, if you already think he has two pair + on the turn, what happens if you bet? His good hands are either automatically calling or raising, and what do his drawing hands do? Fold? Call?

 

[Legend5555]

The issue with a $75 flop bet is that you really only get called by hands that beat you and hands that have good equity, unless he has a K too. This size causes you to get no value from smaller pocket pairs and 5x.

 

[ImaHalfwit]

2-3. $300 effective. 9 handed.

I'm in BB with Ad Kd.

5 limpers to me. I make it $25. One caller from MP.

Flop is 4d 5s Ks

I bet $75 (pot) because of all the draws that hit a limp call range.

He calls.

At this point, I think he has 2 pair, a set, a combo draw (like 6s 7s). Not putting him on a weak king. If he'd raised my bet, I would have folded, knowing how these players and how they generally operate.

Turn is 9d. Pot is $215ish.

Now I have even more equity, but still need to deny. I bet $100 or so (half pot). Pot is now $315.

He shoves and has me covered. I only have $100 left, so we can say pot is $515 and my call will make it $615. Now I know he's ahead. But I still think 2 pair, maybe set.

Looking at how much is in the pot plus my equity, I call because I think it's positive EV.

He has 2 pair (4-5). River bricks.

Ran it through odds calculation and I had 36% equity. So according to it, call was correct by the time the turn shove happened. Even when I was first to act on the turn, if I had shoved for my remaining $200 into a pot of $215 and he calls, then I'm essentially in for 30% of the pot, which makes it slightly +EV. If I had any fold equity, all the better.

But would folks have played the hand differently, especially on earlier streets? Was I too worried about letting draws get there? Was this outcome avoidable in any reasonable way? I'm pondering if I should have only bet half pot on the flop or even checked flop... but would that have made it too cheap for people to draw? If I'd done that, he likely would have raised me on the flop... then do I call or just fold? It's easy to say in hindsight that I'd fold, but... if we don't know his hand, couldn't that have been a high equity draw he was holding?

Or... was it fine and I just ran into it?

Thanks!

Lots of other people have talked on the street by street. But it's also worth mentioning your "gut" read on the flop. You sort of knew (or at least suspected) where you stood after the flop. The call the flop, shove the turn play I see all the time, and it's almost always two pair or better. That was another data point. But on the individual streets, your action was fine. Even calling the river you only had to win about 1 time in 5 in that spot for the call to make sense. So the adjustment might have been to listen to your read on after the flop and check the turn and see what he does. My hunch is that villain shoves the turn if you check and then you can evaluate.