Getting close to the bubble with black 66. (1 Viewer)

[Mr Tree]

Why is any J a scare card?

Maybe I’m being overly cautious but AJ fits villains actions so far very well. Although to think about it with two hearts out the villain is probably raising AJ on the turn most of the time so maybe it should not be too much of a worry.

 

[ChaosRock]

Maybe I’m being overly cautious but AJ fits villains actions so far very well. Although to think about it with two hearts out the villain is probably raising AJ on the turn most of the time so maybe it should not be too much of a worry.

Gotcha, of course! Yeah, AJ is a definitely a possibility here, although I think Villain 3-bets it more often than not and if not.

 

[Mr Tree]

Gotcha! Yeah, AJ is a definitely a possibility here, although I think Villain 3-bets it more often than not.

Yeah I just went through my head and I agree. I put myself in villain’s shoes and I absolutely would pop you on the turn with AJ here. We would probably get it in for stacks.

When I was going through this from villain’s perspective I asked myself what does villain think you hold (based on the idea villain has AJ). From the earlier description I would probably default to you being a most likely competent TAG. The raise from early position indicates a holding of good value which could be quite a few hands. The lead out on the flop doesn’t say much, but the second lead out on the turn after being called tells me you likely have something here. I think the primary hand I would make Hero for here is AK. If you are villain you just got firmly ahead of AK and could likely get paid off from a lot of players holding it.

 

[BGinGA]

Because quads beat a full house.

 

[v1pe]

It might have a sad ending.

They often do...not that that means we should have played the hand any different - we just tend to analyze our losses more than our wins.

OTTH:
We are definitely going to want to continue betting, the question is...how much?

We are trying to get stacks in on a clean river (basically any non-heart, I think). There are two different ways we could go about it, IMO. My default here if we were shorter stacked would be to bet small 1/3 to 1/2 pot to set up a shove that's going to be at least 1/2 pot. Since we are deeper stacked and there's not enough yet in the pot we have to get a bit more creative. I think we could either:

1) Bet 17 - 17.5 BBs to set up a pot sized river shove.
2) Bet 13 - 15 BBs to set up a small-ish river overbet.

I think I like option 2...for a couple of reasons. If we bet a little bit smaller on the turn, we are more likely to continue to get called by naked flush draws. V is probably going to call with all of his made hands here anyway, but a slightly smaller bet on the turn entices him to continue drawing with naked flush draws and combo draws with no made hand. If/when river bricks out, we have a very bluffy looking river shove with the overbet. We are really polarizing our range when a brick comes on the river, but this bluffy sizing might entice villain to spaz out with a decent Ax and will definitely get a call from any 2-pair. Villain is probably not calling any river bet if he has a naked flush or straight draw (KQhh, KThh, QThh are really the only ones that make sense), so why not go for max value?

A 3rd option if we have an extremely agro villain might be to check the turn or bet really small (1/4 - 1/3 pot or so) to induce a raise, but I don't think we have a read on villain that good so I don't prefer this option.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Why is any J a scare card?

Villain holding AJ for one.

 

[v1pe]

The one thing I don’t like is roughly a third of the deck is a scare card.



There is a good chance we are going to see a caution flag river card.

I'm personally loving it if we find an A on the river since it so often gives V trips and improves us to a full house. If he gets there with A6 or A3 then GG NH sir (tap tap). I agree a Jack is a bit more scary, if he has AJ or JJ I think it's reasonable to expect a check/raise or even a donk lead on the turn, so I think those hands are less likely (pending Villain's action on the turn after we bet).

 

[Mr Tree]

I'm personally loving it if we find an A on the river since it so often gives V trips and improves us to a full house. If he gets there with A6 or A3 then GG NH sir (tap tap). I agree a Jack is a bit more scary, if he has AJ or JJ I think it's reasonable to expect a check/raise or even a donk lead on the turn, so I think those hands are less likely (pending Villain's action on the turn after we bet).

Yeah I made the realization that AJ likely raises the turn after I typed this so I would definitely discount the weight of it on the river if villain just calls a bet on the turn again. I would put AJ on the short list of hands villain could be playing right now based on action to this point.

 

[ChaosRock]

Yeah I made the realization that AJ likely raises the turn after I typed this so I would definitely discount the weight of it on the river if villain just calls a bet on the turn again. I would put AJ on the short list of hands villain could be playing right now based on action to this point.

We haven't gotten to Villains turn to act after he checks the turn to Hero. maybe he raises, maybe he doesn't... Maybe he folds to Hero's bet...

 

[Mr Tree]

We haven't gotten to Villains turn to act after he checks the turn to Hero. maybe he raises, maybe he doesn't... Maybe he folds to Hero's bet...

 

[Poker Zombie]

I'm waiting for Paulo to pull off an M. Night Shyamalan level twist, where we find out he is actually the villian

 

[Psypher1000]

Wait...Lord Stark dies?!?

Hodor.

 

[Mr Tree]

I'm waiting for Paulo to pull off an M. Night Shyamalan level twist, where we find out he is actually the villian

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm waiting for Paulo to pull off an M. Night Shyamalan level twist, where we find out he is actually the villian

Somebody did this here a couple weeks ago.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Somebody did this here a couple weeks ago.

I do it from time to time so that way people don't captain hindsight me and say how I clearly should've folded, etc. Instead they bash the villain who they think is me for playing it terrible and praise me (who they think is my opponent) for playing so masterfully lol

 

[timinater]

But I am always paranoid these strategy posts have a sad ending.

Yeah, I see lots of "play a hand with me" or similar posts where the results of the hands get posted. They are fun, but if you want to get some good discussion, forget about the results. They are irrelevant, and if people keep posting coolers and cold decks, the discussion is going to skew that way.

If it's me, I'm posting action up to the part of the hand where I faced a tough decision that I'm not sure about so I can get feedback on what others think about the situation.

Also, if you are only posting/reviewing losing hands, you're missing a pile of hands you could mine for lessons learned.

As for the hand. Pot or 3/4 pot the turn.

 

[ChaosRock]

It seems there's consensus here that Hero should bet (duh!), the only disagreement being how much, again, going from ½ pot to over pot.

Hero opted to go closer to the lower end of that range. I think greed played a little part on that. I didn't want to loose a bad A to a larger bet and I think strong hands would c/r the turn anyways. Right or wrong I though the payoff of keeping a bad A was was worth it. Also, increasing the bet size here wouldn't significantly set a better shove situation on the River. So Hero bets 11BB and Villain calls after a brief tanking, nothing that gave me any pause for concern. River is a . Villain checks. Hero?

Pre-Flop (2.5BB)
Hero (80BB) opens for 2.5BB
CO (30BB) Calls
SB (85BB) Calls

Flop (9.5BB)
SB (83BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (77.5BB) bets 5BB
CO (27.5BB) Folds

Turn (19.5BB)
SB (78BB) Checks
Hero (72.5BB) ?

River (41.5BB)
SB (67BB) Checks
Hero (61.5BB) ?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Well that river shouldn't change much, unless this guy was chasing a gutshot and/or had a combo draw (i.e. a flush and gutshot). I think we should be betting for value here against an opponent who most likely has Ax and seems willing to pay us off.

The question is how much do we bet (and then what do we do if we get check-shoved on after our bet)

The pot is 41.5BB so I think if Villain has an Ax hand that seems willing to call we should be able to bet somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-27bb's here and get paid off.

The only potential problem is we're essentially pot committed if Villain shoves over the top, since our hand is too strong to fold. I can't put him on AA as they would've raised at some point to protect against the potential draws out there.

So the only hands I'm worried about are JJ or although how likely are they calling preflop OOP with that holding? Thus I expect to be ahead, and if Villain shoves over the top I expect them to show up with lesser sets or a two pair combo more often than a hand that beats us (i.e. I don't think I'm ever folding here)

 

[CraigT78]

I'm betting 20 bigs and preparing to call a shove.

 

[Mr Tree]

Wow,

So the only hands beating hero are AA, JJ, 25, and 57?
If villain has any of those holdings they just get my stack here the way this hand has played.

I look at this as how to give my opponent the best chance to put the most chips in the pot. Checking is out. We really have two options, an oversized shove designed to look like a last ditch effort to buy a pot or a really small bet that looks to be begging for a call. The way the hand and the turn has played out I don’t think the oversized bet gets called often. I would ten to go with a very small bet here either hoping to milk one more bet or to get a shove. Something like 15-20BB maybe?

 

[JustinInMN]

River (41.5BB)
SB (67BB) Checks
Hero (61.5BB) ?

I'm starting to feel better about this ending.

I'm betting 20 bigs and preparing to call a shove.

This seems right to me, really your best hope for value is to get a call from Ax and I think this is the right price. If you get shoved on I think you have to call just based on the chance villian can be overplaying aces up. I am just not believing AA or JJ here even if villian shoves without a pf raise. Maybe villian somehow has 44 or 33?

The one winning combo I can see for villian is exactly , and just to nod in @BGinGA, maybe JJ if villian wouldn't 3 bet that pf and check call once on an a hi board.

 

[power13]

I feel like you would have heard from a big hand on the turn. I'm struggling to see what we would be concerned to see here, the only hands that got there on the river are 75 and 52, the only way those gutshots are ever calling 2 streets are with hearts, and those are hard to give to a SB call pre-flop. Plus there is a good chance that anybody playing a big made hand to the river is going to donk and make sure they don't lose value to a check-back. I still feel like a big pair, missed FD and 2 pair are the most likely holdings, maybe a set of 3s. There are 7 combos of realistic flopped 2P+, probably another 12 turned 2 pairs, and another 24 top pair/good kickers if you assume he wouldn't 3B AK pre-flop. So I would say you have about 20 combos you're beating that will call a big bet, and another 12-24 that will probably fold to a shove but will call a smaller bet. At the same time, when discounted for likelihood there are maybe 1-3 combos that beat you, and another 10-12 FD combos that are going to fold.

As played, I'm leaning toward a smaller bet that can be called by the big one-pairs, but not too small to induce the busted draws to bluff. The bigger bet might lose the smaller hands and opens us up to the handful of coolers that somehow got here. Also it's hard to get stacks in now given the pot size, so an overbet could actually get some folds from the 2 pairs, which would be bad. I think something like 16.5 BB does the job. If he shoves on you that's a tough spot and I would probably be ready to call a shove given the amount of value you beat that could conceivably take that line vs the very small amount of value that beats you. But if you are focused on cashing, the small bet also leaves you with still 35BB which is still very playable.

 

[Darson]

If I was villain and had AA then I would have raised pre. But this close to the bubble, maybe slow playing AA is wise as aggressive betting will likely just make everyone fold and you only collect blinds. Calling pre then just check/calling after making trip As means the villain is letting you fill the pot and not scaring you away.

If I was villain and I had JJ then I probably would have folded after the flop as that would have scared me away.

Anything smaller (25 or 75) and I would have folded pre.

If I was hero here and have the river checked to me and I'm on the bubble, I would check back - limit my exposure if the villain has me beat but also gain a healthy +20bb if I'm ahead.

But then again I'm a scaredy-cat...

 

[power13]

If I was villain and had AA then I would have raised pre. But this close to the bubble, maybe slow playing AA is wise as aggressive betting will likely just make everyone fold and you only collect blinds. Calling pre then just check/calling after making trip As means the villain is letting you fill the pot and not scaring you away.

If I was villain and I had JJ then I probably would have folded after the flop as that would have scared me away.

Anything smaller (25 or 75) and I would have folded pre.

If I was hero here and have the river checked to me and I'm on the bubble, I would check back - limit my exposure if the villain has me beat but also gain a healthy +20bb if I'm ahead.

But then again I'm a scaredy-cat...

It's not out of the question that SB would have called AA pre-flop though with 2 players in the pot when action got to him, I say it's pretty unlikely. But if he did it, with a flush draw on board I feel pretty certain we would have heard from him on the flop or the turn. Check-calling 2 streets with top set on a FD board and then checking river feels very unlikely. AA would want to protect or not risk checking the river and losing one more sizable bet. Same logic with JJ. I mean who knows people do odd stuff all the time, but given the action and the board this feels like one of the best situations we could hope for.

 

[upNdown]

Thee villain has check called three streets and now another check.
Doesn’t that get your spider senses tingling?
Unless I have the nuts, I’m never ever ever doing anything but turning over my cards here (and expecting to see AA or JJ.) Call me a nit. I don’t care how unlikely his winning hand is. 3 check calls plus a check equals bad.

 

[Darson]

It's not out of the question that SB would have called AA pre-flop though with 2 players in the pot when action got to him, I say it's pretty unlikely. But if he did it, with a flush draw on board I feel pretty certain we would have heard from him on the flop or the turn. Check-calling 2 streets with top set on a FD board and then checking river feels very unlikely. AA would want to protect or not risk checking the river and losing one more sizable bet. Same logic with JJ. I mean who knows people do odd stuff all the time, but given the action and the board this feels like one of the best situations we could hope for.

Personally, I wouldn't chase a flush draw unless I had the in my hand. I guess that makes me a nit!

 

[Anthony Martino]

Thee villain has check called three streets and now another check.
Doesn’t that get your spider senses tingling?
Unless I have the nuts, I’m never ever ever doing anything but turning over my cards here (and expecting to see AA or JJ.) Call me a nit. I don’t care how unlikely his winning hand is. 3 check calls plus a check equals bad.

I think that's seeing monsters under the bed. There are a number of hands that Villain might play this way that we beat, including Ax, two pair, flush draws (since Hero wasn't betting super large on any streets AND both players are deepstacked).

 

[Jimulacrum]

The hands that beat 66 seem so unlikely here based on Villain's line that I don't think we should worry about them. And almost no matter what bet size you make here, if Villain has you beat, he's going for the rest of your chips, and you can't really fold. So if you lose, there's no getting away from it with a stack unless you check back, which is just too weak.

With that in mind, I'm gonna go nuts and go for an overbet shove. You bust either way if you're behind, but an overbet shove may look like enough of a bluff that Villain may just snap it off with a bluff-catcher.

I suspect that's what he has, based on his check/call line all the way—something like a bare ace. Anything bigger, and we're probably seeing a raise from him on the flop or turn, and/or probably a bet rather than a check on the river. If he puts you on a bluff, he may call, but otherwise, he's probably folding, whether you bet 25 BB or 61 BB. So sell the bluff possibility as best you can on the end, like you're making a desperation move with QQ or KK.

 

[BGinGA]

AA pretty unlikely as played, as is JJ (which I think bets the river for value, not wanting to see a check-back). Totally dismissing 52, but is a real possibility.

I'm betting about 1/3 pot or 13.5bb, which should be small enough for two-pair (and maybe TPGK) hands to still call, plus the rare oddball sets (44 and 33).

I really don't expect a busted flush bluff, not at this point in the tournament..... which means a check-raise becomes pretty worrisome, at least to me -- and probably meaning he holds either 75 for the straight or JJ for the bigger set. If it happens, I can still get away from the hand with 47+bb left, far from crippled. But I think the greater likelihood of getting paid by lesser holdings makes a check-back here an error.

 

[upNdown]

I think that's seeing monsters under the bed. There are a number of hands that Villain might play this way that we beat, including Ax, two pair, flush draws (since Hero wasn't betting super large on any streets AND both players are deepstacked).

It’s a big hole in my game tournament game. I do see monsters under the bed. But I’m not giving everybody credit for optimal play. And I’m not risking my tournament on a set of 6’s in tihis situation.
Edit - unless it’s @BGinGA - then I’m raise calling!