Alex Lundstrum
Two Pair
Also, this^
Me after winning: I won exactly $143.17.
Me after losing: Mmmm, about even.
What is the biggest lie about poker ? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rummeraises
- Start date
Me after winning: I won exactly $143.17.
Me after losing: Mmmm, about even.
Is this guy named Doc Emmit Brown??? Hit his head and saw the image below?
Maybe he has advanced knowledge of the cards about to be dealt??
I don’t know if this is the biggest lie, but maybe it is the most common lie: “I’m a winning player.” Followed by “I make a living playing poker.”
Yes, it’s very possible to be a winning player. And yes, it’s even possible to make a living playing poker. But I think very few people are living these dreams.
If you are playing in casinos with high rakes, you can be a solid, smart, creative player who beats everyone else... But you really have to be exceptionally solid, smart, creative player to beat the rake. Again, I think that’s possible. I just don’t think many people honestly get there.
My winningest period in poker was when I had access to lots of private games with little or no rake. These were small stakes, but they were profitable because almost all the money was staying among the players. I would never play in a casino again if I could find enough action like that.
I also think a lot of the big pros we admire (while they are often very clever players) are people who managed at some point to get a big score... Win a major tournament or three. Then have the giant bankroll to survive the variance most other good players without that funding can’t survive.
Or, parlay their splashy success at a few events—which may have been based in skill, or variance, or most likely both—into staking and other deals, again so that the inevitable reversion to the mean did not eventually send them back to a day job.
Just look at how many famous players wind up involved in coaching sites, sponsorship deals, books, streaming, podcasts, television commentary... They are making money on the side, away from the table, in pursuits related to poker but not actually playing poker, getting their expenses paid by means other than grinding it out at the tables... If they could truly crush everyone consistently, why would they bother, except maybe for ego reasons?
So while I do think it’s possible to win consistently in the long-term, especially once you are rolled to survive the variance—and I even think a few people can make their entire living that way—I just think that usually this is a huge lie. Either people are not winning as often and as much as they claim, or they are majorly supplementing income from the tables with poker-related work.
Yes, it’s very possible to be a winning player. And yes, it’s even possible to make a living playing poker. But I think very few people are living these dreams.
If you are playing in casinos with high rakes, you can be a solid, smart, creative player who beats everyone else... But you really have to be exceptionally solid, smart, creative player to beat the rake. Again, I think that’s possible. I just don’t think many people honestly get there.
My winningest period in poker was when I had access to lots of private games with little or no rake. These were small stakes, but they were profitable because almost all the money was staying among the players. I would never play in a casino again if I could find enough action like that.
I also think a lot of the big pros we admire (while they are often very clever players) are people who managed at some point to get a big score... Win a major tournament or three. Then have the giant bankroll to survive the variance most other good players without that funding can’t survive.
Or, parlay their splashy success at a few events—which may have been based in skill, or variance, or most likely both—into staking and other deals, again so that the inevitable reversion to the mean did not eventually send them back to a day job.
Just look at how many famous players wind up involved in coaching sites, sponsorship deals, books, streaming, podcasts, television commentary... They are making money on the side, away from the table, in pursuits related to poker but not actually playing poker, getting their expenses paid by means other than grinding it out at the tables... If they could truly crush everyone consistently, why would they bother, except maybe for ego reasons?
So while I do think it’s possible to win consistently in the long-term, especially once you are rolled to survive the variance—and I even think a few people can make their entire living that way—I just think that usually this is a huge lie. Either people are not winning as often and as much as they claim, or they are majorly supplementing income from the tables with poker-related work.
P.S. Regarding the old guy who supposedly plays terribly yet wins consistently over many years... Either he is running a very long con (Really, guys, I have no idea what I’m doing! I’m the loosest player at the table! I’m just here to gamble... Please call my ridiculous bet—I never have it!) and not getting caught.
Or more likely he is the exception which proves the rule.
If millions of people are playing poker 24/7/365, statistically there have to be people at the far ends of the bell curve who simply run exceptionally good or bad, even over the long-term.
It would be abnormal if there weren’t 0.3% of people who fall more than three standard deviations from the mean. ~3 players in 1,000 running unusually good or bad doesn’t mean that it’s a lie that everyone gets the same luck over time. It just shows that the distribution of luck is exactly as you might expect.
Or more likely he is the exception which proves the rule.
If millions of people are playing poker 24/7/365, statistically there have to be people at the far ends of the bell curve who simply run exceptionally good or bad, even over the long-term.
It would be abnormal if there weren’t 0.3% of people who fall more than three standard deviations from the mean. ~3 players in 1,000 running unusually good or bad doesn’t mean that it’s a lie that everyone gets the same luck over time. It just shows that the distribution of luck is exactly as you might expect.
Mr Tree
Straight Flush
Reading this thread from the beginning is really an enjoyable exercise. It’s like reading a great mystery book, but the ending has yet to be written .... is Rummer for real or is he really trolling everyone? Will the people taking his question at face value continue to try to answer it using “statistics” and “logic” or simply give up? Is Rummer aware of the other threads trolling him and, if he becomes aware, will he get even more belligerent? Is Rummer really as perceptive a player as he claims based on his 40 years of poker? These are the questions I need answers to ...
This isn't true. I'm up in poker over 17 years.... I'm making like 50-60 cents an hour when I play. Im nearly a professional.
Will we ever know??!
Did you remember to account for gas?
SHIT.
Now you just need to play about 250,000 hours/year.
Rhodeman77
Straight Flush
And now for some bad poetry...
When the hands are read,
and the pot has been dragged,
I should go to bed
But theres gamblin' to be had
I know im a great player!
This game takes guts
Fuck- what am i doing?
I just folded the nuts.
When the hands are read,
and the pot has been dragged,
I should go to bed
But theres gamblin' to be had
I know im a great player!
This game takes guts
Fuck- what am i doing?
I just folded the nuts.
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Funny, the voice in my head was the narrator from ancient aliens and oak island: "A fold? On the RIVER?"
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
Just throwing this out there...as stated, “luck” (or any other randomness variable) does not even out over time. That’s literally the gamblers fallacy...there is a streak of reds so blacks are due to get back to the correct 50/50 distribution. Not how it works
What is true, is that distributions of random variables converge as sample sizes increase.
So, if you sincerely believe that the next session, old man is due some bad cards (he ran good so his luck is supposed to even out) or due some better than average cards (he’s intrinsically lucky)...well, I’d like to have you at my poker game I think. That exceptionally poor concept of numbers will spill into other areas
What is true, is that distributions of random variables converge as sample sizes increase.
So, if you sincerely believe that the next session, old man is due some bad cards (he ran good so his luck is supposed to even out) or due some better than average cards (he’s intrinsically lucky)...well, I’d like to have you at my poker game I think. That exceptionally poor concept of numbers will spill into other areas
Old State
Full House
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This reminds me of this retired Navy SEAL guy that exposes fake SEALS. His name is Don Shipley and has a website and YouTube channel. He is freaking hilarious but anyhooooo....he always says there are 10000 fake SEALs for every real one. I think the same may apply for professional poker players.
I think another lie or maybe misconception is that pros make a lot of money....even the famous ones...just playing cards.
I know exactly one pro. He started playing with my group around 2004 and hardly knew how to play. That said he got real good real fast. He ended up quitting his teaching job and going pro around 2007. Since then he has done well and moved to NJ to play online. None of us know exactly what he makes but the guy closest to him in our group thinks he makes around $150K a year. I often wonder if he is doing better than most. He has no personality and is extremely disapplined when he plays. I doubt he is gambling on sports or anything like that. He also has a website he charges for and invested in some real estate...so additional revenue streams.
As far as famous pros I I often see stuff online about this guy or that guy being broke. The ones with TV and book deals do better I assume, but it seems like many are degenerate gamblers that have squandered their winnings.
Old State
Full House
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Seems like the old man in our story is named Chuck Norris.
Chuck made a royal flush long before the Ace was introduced to card decks.
That, after having spent two nights on the Sun.
Chuck made a royal flush long before the Ace was introduced to card decks.
That, after having spent two nights on the Sun.
Well, that's a different story.
I read a lot of this thread and I only have one thought as a very infrequent poker player - can I get an invite to the game where the head injury guy regularly wins? Seems like easy pickings for a average guys like me.
Dr. Matt
Two Pair
Just finished reading this thread over the course of the afternoon. It’s like I hit the end of the season finale of my favorite drama, but left wanting more... please tell me it’s not over.
Other than the occcasional candy cane mafia poker chip reference, this is the laugh out loud post to the year!
I have to admit, I didn't read the entire thread. But it made me think of a guy I play poker with.
Once he said "I'm not stupid, it's just my table image!!"
He figured out capped ranges before anyone else and took advantage of it. He liked to act stupid, but he knew exactly what he was doing when there was a dry flop and he had 67. And he made sure everyone knew he could have 67.
Point is, guys that have been playing poker that long tend to have a little bit of a fox in them. What they admit and what they know are different things.
Once he said "I'm not stupid, it's just my table image!!"
He figured out capped ranges before anyone else and took advantage of it. He liked to act stupid, but he knew exactly what he was doing when there was a dry flop and he had 67. And he made sure everyone knew he could have 67.
Point is, guys that have been playing poker that long tend to have a little bit of a fox in them. What they admit and what they know are different things.
Chuck Norris once visited the Virgin Islands.
From that point on, they were known as "The Islands".
Chuck Norris sold his soul to the devil for his rugged good looks and unparalleled martial arts ability. Shortly after the transaction was finalized, Chuck roundhouse kicked the devil in the face and took his soul back. The devil, who appreciates irony, couldn't stay mad and admitted he should have seen it coming. They now play poker the second Wednesday of every month.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Chuck Norris doesn't get frostbite...he bites frost
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