What is the biggest lie about poker ? (1 Viewer)

[rummeraises]

IMHO, it is this :

All players will receive the same amount of good luck and bad luck over the longterm.

I have played for over 40 years and I am positive this above claim, is incorrect.

I currently play in local pot limit home games that are dealers choice { no wild card games} . We have a 74 year old man that plays recklessly, loosely and yet he has been a regular big winner for the last 10 years. He overlooks his hands so often, that he has to turn up his hole cards at the end of a hand, just to make sure he did not overlook his hand
{ players in these local games are allowed to help each other call out their hands, as long as the hand has ended and the player turns their hole cards face up on the table } .

This old man, hits more quads and straight flushes in 1 month then I make in 3 years. He actually laughs about his good luck and tells us that he has always had good luck in poker and he KNOWS he is just a average player. This old man is living proof that not every poker player will get the same amount of good luck and bad luck as other poker players, over the short term, mid term or long term. Mathematically speaking, from a odds perspective, and skill perspective , this old man should not be beating these poker games. Luck is the great equalizer.

 

[longflop]

"I regret buying this hot dog roller" has to be up there.

 

[Kyle]

That @CraigT78 only had 6 beers one night at a poker meetup.

 

[ruskba]

"I regret buying this hot dog roller" has to be up there.

This can’t be a lie because it’s never been said.

 

[Highli99]

IMHO, it is this :

All players will receive the same amount of good luck and bad luck over the longterm.

I have played for over 40 years and I am positive this above claim, is incorrect.

I currently play in local pot limit home games that are dealers choice { no wild card games} . We have a 74 year old man that plays recklessly, loosely and yet he has been a regular big winner for the last 10 years. He overlooks his hands so often, that he has to turn up his hole cards at the end of a hand, just to make sure he did not overlook his hand
{ players in these local games are allowed to help each other call out their hands, as long as the hand has ended and the player turns their hole cards face up on the table } .

This old man, hits more quads and straight flushes in 1 month then I make in 3 years. He actually laughs about his good luck and tells us that he has always had good luck in poker and he KNOWS he is just a average player. This old man is living proof that not every poker player will get the same amount of good luck and bad luck as other poker players, over the short term, mid term or long term. Mathematically speaking, from a odds perspective, and skill perspective , this old man should not be beating these poker games. Luck is the great equalizer.

"Whether you think you're lucky or unlucky, you're right" ~Highli99

I'm lucky as hell. I have a lucky coach on retainer because I'm not satisfied and want moar luck. Also, my lucky coach bought my Powerball tickets tonight because he lives in PA and i'm not allowed to buy the tickets in MD. He's that good.

 

[Forty4]

That @CraigT78 only had 6 beers one night at a poker meetup.

Doesn’t matter how many he’s had he can always pass the sobriety field test.

 

[rummeraises]

"Whether you think you're lucky or unlucky, you're right" ~Highli99

I'm lucky as hell. I have a lucky coach on retainer because I'm not satisfied and want moar luck. Also, my lucky coach bought my Powerball tickets tonight because he lives in PA and i'm not allowed to buy the tickets in MD. He's that good.

The irony of your satirical post is, we can look at it from the other end of the spectrum, and apply it to those who claim that ALL poker players have the exact same amount of good luck and bad luck over the long term. My response to such idiotic claims is this " Is there a poker god above us, that guarantees to watch every poker player and make sure they each have equal good luck and bad luck " ? Of course not. Luck is variable over the long term also. Poker is a form of gambling and in gambling, luck does not have any pre-set conditions where it has to apply equally to all players over the long term. This claim is just another lie told to us by deceivers , and our bullshit tv. My 40 years of playing and observing poker, helps prove my claims.

I play poker with a old man, that has been BEATING the mathematically odds for 10 years in my local home games. He won $1200 this past Monday night yet he plays loose, reckless and makes a lot of mistakes. His continual good luck is enough to keep him winning in the game. FWIW...no, he is not cheating. The cards always get shuffled, we use a cut card on the bottom of the deck and the cards always get cut by the player to the right, before being dealt. This old man just has astoundingly good luck in poker and rumor is he has been like this most of his life.

 

[Perthmike]

I’ve been stacked 4 times by the same guy in the past 2 months for a total of $2500.

My aa v his aj rivered flush
My k10hearts flush v his aj hearts flush
His 85diamonds in a 3 bet pot v my ak offsuit on a king high 3 diamond flop, I had the ace diamonds
Last night my aa v his kq offsuit in a 3 bet pot pre flop to $85. Low flop, turn king, river king.

That dudes luckier than me.

 

[rummeraises]

I’ve been stacked 4 times by the same guy in the past 2 months for a total of $2500.

My aa v his aj rivered flush
My k10hearts flush v his aj hearts flush
His 85diamonds in a 3 bet pot v my ak offsuit on a king high 3 diamond board, I had the ace diamonds
Last night my aa v his kq offsuit in a 3 bet pot pre flop to $85. Low flop, turn king, river king.

That dudes luckier than me.

I am confident that some players have more good luck then others, and some players have more bad luck them others. Of course the worst case scenario, is when a player is a bad player and also has continual bad luck. I play with a guy like this in local games and he has lost at least $300,000 in the last 30 years of playing poker in the local games.

Of course using a 2 month example of play, is not solid proof but thats why I presented the old man and his winning streak of the last 10 years.

 

[CraigT78]

Biggest lie in poker?

Wife - "how'd you do last night"

Me - " About even"

 

[Old State]

IMHO, it is this :

All players will receive the same amount of good luck and bad luck over the longterm.

I have played for over 40 years and I am positive this above claim, is incorrect.

I currently play in local pot limit home games that are dealers choice { no wild card games} . We have a 74 year old man that plays recklessly, loosely and yet he has been a regular big winner for the last 10 years. He overlooks his hands so often, that he has to turn up his hole cards at the end of a hand, just to make sure he did not overlook his hand
{ players in these local games are allowed to help each other call out their hands, as long as the hand has ended and the player turns their hole cards face up on the table } .

This old man, hits more quads and straight flushes in 1 month then I make in 3 years. He actually laughs about his good luck and tells us that he has always had good luck in poker and he KNOWS he is just a average player. This old man is living proof that not every poker player will get the same amount of good luck and bad luck as other poker players, over the short term, mid term or long term. Mathematically speaking, from a odds perspective, and skill perspective , this old man should not be beating these poker games. Luck is the great equalizer.

I agree but I have some friends that get lucky with action rather than just cards. My one friend in particular is a very solid card player and usually wins but he sometimes wins tremendous amounts. Most of it from three or four hand in a session when his nut flush card makes another players straight and yet another player has a smaller flush...or something similar. That stuff NEVER happens to me, but it happens to him routinely.

I once flopped quads with 33 middle position in an unraised pot with 4 players playing $1/2NL at Borgata. People were paying pretty loose all night. It gets checked to me, I checked it, and it checked around. Turn card gets checked to me and I bet $6. Everyone folds and I win the blinds

 

[Rhodeman77]

I’m a firm believer that luck is the product of hard work and determination meeting opportunity. Lots of people say how lucky I am at the poker table, it has more to do with play style and hand/opponent reading than luck. But they don’t put in as much time and energy to being good at poker as I do so they have to attribute my good fortune to luck. That’s fine by me, otherwise they may not play against me as much if they realized the truth.

Like I tell them, you can’t flop quad dueces if you fold them preflop!

 

[Mtvernonbryan]

Biggest lie in poker?

Wife - "how'd you do last night"

Me - " About even"

50 gold stars for this.

 

[kmccormick100]

Yes, you’re 100% right - skill and study has nothing to do with players consistently winning year over year, they’re just consistently luckier than their opponents. It’s why I continue to play my same consistent strategy all the time, because at some point my bad luck is going to turnaround and I’ll start beating the other players for long enough to become a big winner in the game.



Right?

 

[detroitdad]

Biggest lie in poker?

Wife - "how'd you do last night"

Me - " About even"

Thanks bud. I laughed out loud lol.

I’m a firm believer that luck is the product of hard work and determination meeting opportunity. Lots of people say how lucky I am at the poker table, it has more to do with play style and hand/opponent reading than luck. But they don’t put in as much time and energy to being good at poker as I do so they have to attribute my good fortune to luck. That’s fine by me, otherwise they may not play against me as much if they realized the truth.

Like I tell them, you can’t flop quad dueces if you fold them preflop!

This...………..

 

[trigs]

I'm under the impression that most people know that luck in poker will even out in the long run, but the long run is longer than they think. Something like 10,000 hands online played and you'll finally just start to get a good idea of your skill level. And more is better.

Live poker? I know for a fact that some live pros have just run overly lucky for most of their careers and yet think they're great poker players.

 

[rummeraises]

I agree but I have some friends that get lucky with action rather than just cards. My one friend in particular is a very solid card player and usually wins but he sometimes wins tremendous amounts. Most of it from three or four hand in a session when his nut flush card makes another players straight and yet another player has a smaller flush...or something similar. That stuff NEVER happens to me, but it happens to him routinely.

I once flopped quads with 33 middle position in an unraised pot with 4 players playing $1/2NL at Borgata. People were paying pretty loose all night. It gets checked to me, I checked it, and it checked around. Turn card gets checked to me and I bet $6. Everyone folds and I win the blinds

Completely true, and this is a sect of LUCK, that many people overlook. A lucky player not only gets a lot of good cards, and winning hands, BUT, they also get those winning hands and get paid off by other players who also made strong hands to call with.

I’m a firm believer that luck is the product of hard work and determination meeting opportunity. Lots of people say how lucky I am at the poker table, it has more to do with play style and hand/opponent reading than luck. But they don’t put in as much time and energy to being good at poker as I do so they have to attribute my good fortune to luck. That’s fine by me, otherwise they may not play against me as much if they realized the truth.

Like I tell them, you can’t flop quad dueces if you fold them preflop!

The old man that Ive been playing with for 10 years is a very mediocre player. In fact, he misreads his own hands so much, it could be said he is a BELOW AVERAGE PLAYER , yet he consistently wins big money in our local games and he most certainly is not the best player in the game. There are at least 4 other players who are better then him. This phenomena can only be explained by the old mans above average run of luck. From a skill perspective and mathematically, the old man should be a losing player . He also has the incredible scenario that when he hits his big winning hands , there are other players in the hand that make big hands, to pay him off . In other words, it is good luck to hit quads and full houses, but it isnt very beneficial unless you get other players tied up in the hand, to also have big hands and pay you off. This is yet another part of the good luck factor, that most people do not think about.

Yes, you’re 100% right - skill and study has nothing to do with players consistently winning year over year, they’re just consistently luckier than their opponents. It’s why I continue to play my same consistent strategy all the time, because at some point my bad luck is going to turnaround and I’ll start beating the other players for long enough to become a big winner in the game.



Right?

No, you are wrong and creating a strawman. I never said that skill and study has nothing to do with winning in poker.

I did comment on how powerful the luck factor can be over the long term and that luck does not always equal out for every player on earth.

I'm under the impression that most people know that luck in poker will even out in the long run, but the long run is longer than they think.

Ive played with the old man in our local games, for the last 10 years. We often play 3 times a week. Surely that is a long enough stretch to have seen the " luck" factor in his playing, be neutralized ? This guy , at best, is a mediocre player. He doesnt know how to read other players, he overlooks his own hand constantly , he plays loose and reckless and yet he continually beats the mathematical odds in the game and is generally the biggest winner in the game . This guy is even clueless about calculating odds in hold em, on the flop. In other words, he lacks most of the skills that solid players have , and yet his above average good luck, makes up for it.

 

[APatHand]

Of course, I believe in luck! How else can i explain the success of those I dislike?

 

[Beakertwang]

Of course, I believe in luck! How else can i explain the success of those I dislike?

Bad officiating works in sports.

 

[rummeraises]

Of course, I believe in luck! How else can i explain the success of those I dislike?

Ok, there is no such thing as luck.

Thats why some people hit the lotto several times and others never hit it in their lifetime. Just more proof that luck exists and is NOT equal for everyone. People who have been playing poker for decades and beat the game, and also have the skills , can clearly sit down at a poker game and recognize who the weak players are. The old man I play with locally, is a weak player, yet he has beat the game hard, for 10 years. There really isnt any other logical explanation for his winning, besides above average good luck. He is living proof , that a weaker player with a lot of good luck, can beat the game of poker , even over the long term . Barry Greenstein even admitted, that the " math/percenatages" do not often make sense or equal out.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Ok, there is no such thing as luck.

Thats why some people hit the lotto several times and others never hit it in their lifetime. Just more proof that luck exists and is NOT equal for everyone. People who have been playing poker for decades and beat the game, and also have the skills , can clearly sit down at a poker game and recognize who the weak players are. The old man I play with locally, is a weak player, yet he has beat the game hard, for 10 years. There really isnt any other logical explanation for his winning, besides above average good luck. He is living proof , that a weaker player with a lot of good luck, can beat the game of poker , even over the long term . Barry Greenstein even admitted, that the " math/percenatages" do not often make sense or equal out.

So is this “luck” as you say or good poker?

Playing $1/2 PLO, we are now down to 3 handed and we all have over $1500.

button straddles for $5, SB calls and I call in the BB with 2235cc.

Flop comes Q42cc. SB checks and I bet $15, Button raises to $60. Now I know he has QQ or 44, but I feel it QQ, possibly with better clubs. SB folds and I call knowing that I can win a huge pot off him if I hit one of my clean 7 outs. The turn is pretty good bring the last 2.

I check and he bets pot, and I just call because I know he isn’t folding no matter what here or on the river so I might as well make sure the river isn’t a Q before getting it all in. The river is a blank and I bet $400 and he goes all-in. I stack him and he start going on and on about how lucky I am.

But my stack was never at risk no matter what card came on the turn. I knew exactly where I was in the hand and could get away from it cheaply if I missed. He on the other hand was never getting away from his hand and would have lost a lot if I made a straight too.

So is he right that I am just lucky or is it good poker knowing what my opponent has and being able to play against him perfectly?

And yes, I would have check folded the river had a Q come I was so confident that is what he had, and I was correct.

 

[rummeraises]

Rhodeman , your above example has nothing to do with the luck I have mentioned in regards to the old many Ive played with for the last 10 years. Im not some teenager who plays 25 cent hold em on the internet. Ive played with people like Ivey and Cindy Violet .

The old man in our local games PROVES that good luck can neutralize the advantages a skilled player may have and that luck is not just a short term phenomena in poker. If you wish to ignore what im saying, thats fine by me .

 

[ChaosRock]

I'm honestly trying to figure out if OP is pulling our legs... You gotta be kidding right?

You're single handily trying to destroy the concept of random distribution. Not only in poker but on absolutely everything that is random, since the principle is the same.

It is absolutely preposterous...

 

[Kain8]

So is this “luck” as you say or good poker?

Playing $1/2 PLO, we are now down to 3 handed and we all have over $1500.

button straddles for $5, SB calls and I call in the BB with 2235cc.

Flop comes Q42cc. SB checks and I bet $15, Button raises to $60. Now I know he has QQ or 44, but I feel it QQ, possibly with better clubs. SB folds and I call knowing that I can win a huge pot off him if I hit one of my clean 7 outs. The turn is pretty good bring the last 2.

I check and he bets pot, and I just call because I know he isn’t folding no matter what here or on the river so I might as well make sure the river isn’t a Q before getting it all in. The river is a blank and I bet $400 and he goes all-in. I stack him and he start going on and on about how lucky I am.

But my stack was never at risk no matter what card came on the turn. I knew exactly where I was in the hand and could get away from it cheaply if I missed. He on the other hand was never getting away from his hand and would have lost a lot if I made a straight too.

So is he right that I am just lucky or is it good poker knowing what my opponent has and being able to play against him perfectly?

And yes, I would have check folded the river had a Q come I was so confident that is what he had, and I was correct.

I want you to have my poker babies @Rhodeman77

 

[CraigT78]

It is absolutely preposterous..

the concept of random distribution

I can do this after a few beers

 

[Tommy]

Interesting thread OP. Following. But I can't stop thinking of this. WTF is wrong with me?

 

[rummeraises]

I'm honestly trying to figure out if OP is pulling our legs... You gotta be kidding right?

You're single handily trying to destroy the concept of random distribution. Not only in poker but on absolutely everything that is random, since the principle is the same.

It is absolutely preposterous...

No, what is preposterous is the claim that EVERY POKER PLAYER will have the SAME amount of good luck and bad luck over the long term. The claim that good luck and bad luck always evens out for every person, is preposterous.

I will wait for you to logically explain, that if LUCK isnt such a big factor, how can a old man , who plays recklessly , loosely and lacks poker skills, continue to beat a pot limit poker game for 10 years or more ? This old man in our local games, hits more quads and straight flushes in 6 months, then Ive hit in 40 years of playing poker. Is he just more skilled at hitting quads and straight flushes then everyone else at the table ? LOL.

 

[rummeraises]

Interesting thread OP. Following. But I can't stop thinking of this. WTF is wrong with me?

View attachment 268001

Maybe you need to go on a low carb diet ?

 

[CraigT78]

how can a old man , who plays recklessly , loosely and lacks poker skills, continue to beat a pot limit poker game for 10 years or more ?

Perhaps this old man is just better than you? You call it luck, he goes home and tells his wife that the fish was grumbling at his game again?

 

[ChaosRock]

No, what is preposterous is the claim that EVERY POKER PLAYER will have the SAME amount of good luck and bad luck over the long term. The claim that good luck and bad luck always evens out for every person, is preposterous.

I will wait for you to logically explain, that if LUCK isnt such a big factor, how can a old man , who plays recklessly , loosely and lacks poker skills, continue to beat a pot limit poker game for 10 years or more ? This old man in our local games, hits more quads and straight flushes in 6 months, then Ive hit in 40 years of playing poker. Is he just more skilled at hitting quads and straight flushes then everyone else at the table ? LOL.

Your assertion is so ridiculous I'm not even sure why I'm wasting my time replying here... But i'll try to be brief:

On the limit, all random outcomes converge to the same point. That does not mean that at a particular point in time all outcomes are the same, only that the longer the time frame, the more they will tend to be equal. Now, the differences in outcome at a certain time is not due to what you're calling luck, it's due to something called randomness.

And your next question, you're equating poker outcome with random card distribution. Poker results depend on many other factors other than card distribution. Poker is not roulette.

How do you think casinos make money in roulette, black jack and things like that?

Seriously... You have got to be kidding...