rummeraises
Pair
If I win it, I may give it you. Makes a great Easter gift.
What is the biggest lie about poker ? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rummeraises
- Start date
If I win it, I may give it you. Makes a great Easter gift.
.... I think your missing the point of the group. No one has any luck, just sometimes the variable of hitting is going to hit. Sometimes it hits someone more then less... You can flip a coin and it might hit heads 20 times in a row. That's not luck.... in theory, the randomness and variances in poker would equalize over a large sample size, but no one will ever play a large enough sample size. It's too wide to really work that way.
How could i ignore you! You're my favorite person today!!!
Jimulacrum
Full House
I disagree. That alone doesn't qualify a person as a weak player. It's essentially meaningless, like (again) a pool shark who pretends to almost shoot with the wrong end of the cue. It looks awfully stupid, but it doesn't affect his next shot one bit. Free advertising.
Blatantly misreading his hand at showdown with a high frequency—even despite decades of experience at the game—only costs this old man something in a "cards speak" game if he doesn't get awarded the pot, but it sounds like it gets corrected every time or nearly so. Take this in conjunction with the fact that he's been destroying local poker games for 40+ years, to the point that everyone who plays with him knows it? He's probably way better than you're giving him credit for, and he has developed this act over the years because it's profitable and keeps the invites coming.
Consider the number of high-skill card sharks out there as a fraction of the poker-playing population. Now add to that fraction the fraction of players who cheat. Is it more likely that he's a shark or cheat—a probability we can estimate within reason—or more likely that there's something intrinsic in this man that somehow orders the cards to make him win far more often than everyone else?
Or perhaps it's selective memory at play. All you have are random anecdotes like this one. How this guy did on Monday proves absolutely nothing that you're trying to prove. And how do your results have any bearing on his? Also, if he does play more loosely than you do, he's bound to win more hands than you do. He'll hit all kinds of hands that you would miss because you folded preflop, not to mention all the pots he could take down with bare aggression.
Beyond all of this, there's one very important thread-shattering matter to discuss: Why the hell do you choose to keep playing with this guy?
You insist that he wins so much because he is incredibly lucky. Hits all kinds of hands, can't lose, 24/7 horseshoe up his ass. You firmly believe this. You also claim to be some kind of pro, or at least a very good/profitable player.
What kind of good player returns again and again to a game where he "knows" that one of the main players has a major, inherent, unbeatable advantage? For 10 years! Pro indeed. That's like choosing to play with a cheat for a whole decade. Why in the world should we take your self-assessment of your skill level at face value when you're also telling us this?
SemiNumerical
Straight
if you win it, would this disprove that you are unlucky'?
56 more, you've got momentum! Keep going!
Mtvernonbryan
Straight
Is it possible that your normal solid game maybe isn’t that solid? I’m not saying this to be a prick I’m just saying I’ve had to adjust my game as time has gone on to keep up with how other people have adjusted. Maybe it’s tine to re-evaluate your game?
rummeraises
Pair
But many pros and poker books disagree with you and me on this subject .
Ive seen pros claim that it all averages out over the course of a few years / or 100,000 hands. So you and I both agree, such claims are baloney ?
People disagree with me? What the....
Again, I'm no pro. I'm a average poker player who loves chips.
rummeraises
Pair
You are correct. This is always a possibility. Ive tried to change from my conservative style of play, to a more reckless loose style of play. It did not work for me. Also, I am not a losing player . Grinding has worked for me for 40 years, BUT, when I see a loose , reckless weak player, like this old man, beat the games for 10 years, it makes me realize that the luck factor can be much more impactive then players give credence to.
rummeraises
Pair
Well, this is also a issue in this type of debate. The opinions about such poker subjects, may vastly differ when you ask players who play very low stakes or have not played for decades, compared to higher stakes players who have more experience.
My game play would probably be called mid stakes games. We play pot limit and players can win $1000-$2000 per session in my local games. This would not be considered ultra high stakes but for a lot of people it may be out of their range to play.
What chips do they use?
Will you stop it with the chips already? NOBODY CARES ABOUT CHIPS!!!
DONT YELL AT ME IN FRONT OF MY FRIENDS, DAD.
Yeah, but how how has it worked out for you in the last two or three? Still working? Or has time passed you by, and the 'lucky' players have gained an unfair advantage?
Interesting..... because when I (and most other experienced players) see a loose, reckless, weak player beat a game for 10 years, it makes me (us) realize that he's probably not a weak player at all. He may have convinced others (such as yourself) that this is true -- it's a great table image vs tight grinders -- but one doesn't consistently beat a game over a long period of time without skills (whether they are acknowledged by others or not). This is where your alleged objectivity goes out the window.
SemiNumerical
Straight
Jimulacrum
Full House
As someone who has been that loose, reckless player beating the hell out of a tight game, this is absolutely true. ABC tight players are usually so convinced that they've got the game down cold that they'll hemorrhage money for years before realizing they're outmatched by a skilled LAG.
It's similar to backgammon. If you're an expert, the novices you beat will often think you're lucky because you seem to get the rolls you need more often than your opponents. But the truth is that—again, very much like pool—you take risks on previous turns to set yourself up to have more favorable outcomes on later turns.
A novice player may, for example, see you do something "crazy" like unnecessarily leaving a stone exposed to one of his stones. He may even double if he's a little ahead in pips, figuring you're a reckless moron who will lose most of the time. As a non-expert, he won't notice that you're setting up a key anchor that will screw him over for the rest of the game, at the small price of an ~18% chance of getting one stone on the bar in the early game (which is not a big deal). Even after you set up the anchor, he may just attribute the series of plays to luck and not skill.
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YOU KNOW WIKIPEDIA CAN BE FALSIFIED, RIGHT??!
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
English only at the table sir
I actually LOL’d!
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Hey man, correct me if I'm wrong, but this guy has like 40 years experience or some-such! Plus, did you know that old guy plays recklessly AND he overlooks his own hands? I mean, how many times does this guy gotta say it?
No, seriously, how many times????!!!
Cliffs: Strawman
Geremie
Full House
I think the only solution is to request a Martian probe to see if there are horseshoes or lucky clovers hiding anywhere. Since he’s old you can just pass it off as a prostate exam. I’m assuming there’s a doctor playing at this game.
Dang I forgot that part, I love that part!! This is why I wanted the story again
SemiNumerical
Straight
OHHHHH Shit, it is turtles all the way down man...
Hey...
At many of our poker nights, sometimes only 3-4 will show up to play.
We will often deal in a dummy hand for fun. If the dummy hand wins, the game resets.
Obviously it's a random hand, but YOU WOULDN'T BELIEVE HOW MANY TIMES THE DUMMY HAND WINS.
We have done this enough times over the last 20 years to prove, that empty seat has to be the luck boxiest seat I have ever seen!
Sometimes we fight over which one of us gets to sit in that chair. Really... we do.
At many of our poker nights, sometimes only 3-4 will show up to play.
We will often deal in a dummy hand for fun. If the dummy hand wins, the game resets.
Obviously it's a random hand, but YOU WOULDN'T BELIEVE HOW MANY TIMES THE DUMMY HAND WINS.
We have done this enough times over the last 20 years to prove, that empty seat has to be the luck boxiest seat I have ever seen!
Sometimes we fight over which one of us gets to sit in that chair. Really... we do.
Simple mathematics. The more hands played, the more wins. Since the empty chair is in every hand, it seems to be 'lucky'. Same as the bumbling loose old man cheating buzzard wizard, who plays a LOT of hands.
Yep - sometimes the chair overlooks the hand it was dealt, and we have to help it read the hand at showdown.
Even then - IT STILL WINS!
Alex Lundstrum
Two Pair
It looks like I'm late to the party, but whatevs. Since we're staying nonsense as fact, let me propose an unarguably plausible scenario: old man fell and hit his head. Ever since then, he's had an uncanny ability to pick up on minute tells, so much so that he has a very good idea of when someone is drawing, so he often comes along for the ride. He's terrible at poker and "reading his hand" but he chases no matter what if he's subconsciously perceived weakness and therefore makes many more hands than others... While he's not very good at poker, he does understand that luck is not an attribute, but simply the face of variance.
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