What is the biggest lie about poker ? (2 Viewers)

[rummeraises]

Retrospectively, yes there are clearly players who have benefited from luck <variation> over their poker carriers. All players are not equally lucky. Variance might favor one player and curse another just due to random chance.

This is also true for real life - some people got lucky, born into wealth, blessed with ability to be a professional ball player, high IQ. And some people were quite unlucky, born in third world poverty, cancer before adulthood, crippling birth defect.

Yes, this is what I have noticed in 40 years of playing poker at casinos, home games and in mid-hi stakes games, pot limit and NL.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Hes not cheating. Hes been a reckless winning poker player most of his life . Ive been told this by all the local players who have played with him for 40 years.

Sorry, I stand corrected.

Anecdotal evidence from elderly townies is absolutely foolproof, especially when stacked against something as flimsy as millennia of mathematical study and observation.

 

[Lemonzest]

All players will receive the same amount of good luck and bad luck over the longterm.

This is true however the real question is how we define the long term. I have heard pros comment that actually reaching the "long term" might be impossible.

It requires a massive sample size to smooth out variance in results. Even if you play weekly for 5-6 hours it will take many years to build a meaningful sample size. In the short term you are a slave to variance.

 

[BGinGA]

Bergs, is that you?

 

[rummeraises]

No, I would say for the majority of players true randomness never equals out. People that have played 5million+ hands of online poker probably experience close to true randomness, but they can see unlucky downswings for tens of thousands of hands at a time. A live recreational player might see 5-10k hands a year, a full time grinder somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-40k hands/year. Given those numbers it's not unreasonable to think a player could run either lucky or unlucky for years at a time given statistical variance and never realize the equilibrium in their "luck". Many players run unlucky in their first months or years of poker, and go broke, never to realize their "good luck". Better players learn how to mitigate their risk and weather out downswings and "unlucky periods" or how to adjust and lose the minimum. Maximizing value when ahead helps offset "bad luck" but most recreational players don't come anywhere close to maximizing value.

Also, still not sure if troll.
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excellent points. and it brings up not only the luck factor, but how that luck is distributed.

for example

can we sumise that it is UNLUCKY for a player to have their bad luck run hit them in the first few years of playing , which leads them to quit the game entirely , compared to another player who had a good luck run for the first few years , and they kept playing, only to later encounter their bad luck run ? The luck factor is much more complex then many people understand because of al the variables of the luck. Many people just think of good/bad luck in poker, as being as simple as getting good cards or bad cards. Its much more complex.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Bergs, is that you?

I miss that fool....

 

[rummeraises]

This is true however the real question is how we define the long term. I have heard pros comment that actually reaching the "long term" might be impossible.

It requires a massive sample size to smooth out variance in results. Even if you play weekly for 5-6 hours it will take many years to build a meaningful sample size. In the short term you are a slave to variance.

Agreed. The people who claim that the luck factor equals out for all players over the course of time , never seem to be able to tell us exactly how many hands each player must play, to see this equalization .

We have been fed a lie in regards to the luck element in poker.

I wish every player on this forum could sit down at the table with the lucky old man at our local games and play with him for at least 1 full year. It may change your outlook on how important luck truly is and how it DOES NOT equal out for all players .

 

[ekricket]

Ive seen this old man, overlook his hand, and lose pots, because he did not read his own hand properly. He does this quite often. This is further proof of how unskilled he is..but his continual GOOD LUCK, has made up for his lack of skills over the last 10 years Ive played with him. I can assure you, he isnt " acting" like a weak poker player..he is a weak player with incredible good luck.

One data point doesn’t prove anything. Maybe he is really lucky but he’s an outlier, the only one to experience it.

 

[fish72s]

Are you truly trying to equate the game of pool, with poker ?

I was going to respond to this until it suddenly became clear now that you are just
trolling us.

 

[fish72s]

What was the question again?

 

[Kain8]

 

[Lemonzest]

Agreed. The people who claim that the luck factor equals out for all players over the course of time , never seem to be able to tell us exactly how many hands each player must play, to see this equalization .

We have been fed a lie in regards to the luck element in poker.

I wish every player on this forum could sit down at the table with the lucky old man at our local games and play with him for at least 1 full year. It may change your outlook on how important luck truly is and how it DOES NOT equal out for all players .

When you say "luck" do you just mean "variance". Some people view luck as a spiritual kind of juju thing. Like Chinese culture has lucky colors/numbers/animals etc.

I am assuming we are just talking in materialistic terms where a purely statistical answer can be agreed upon? right?

 

[rummeraises]

I was going to respond to this until it suddenly became clear now that you are just
trolling us.

If you feel that way, then its probably best you dont respond anymore ? Id ate to think you are so dumb, that you would be tricked by a online troll.

 

[PlaidDragon]

"Whether you think you're lucky or unlucky, you're right" ~Highli99

I'm lucky as hell. I have a lucky coach on retainer because I'm not satisfied and want moar luck. Also, my lucky coach bought my Powerball tickets tonight because he lives in PA and i'm not allowed to buy the tickets in MD. He's that good.

I create my own luck... both the good AND bad variety it would seem.

 

[rummeraises]

When you say "luck" do you just mean "variance". Some people view luck as a spiritual kind of juju thing. Like Chinese culture has lucky colors/numbers/animals etc.

I am assuming we are just talking in materialistic terms where a purely statistical answer can be agreed upon? right?

Well, heres the situation. Ive played with this old man for 10 years now..sometimes 3 games per week { mostly pot limit}.

Out of the 11 local players, I would rate his play as being below average. In 10 years, I bet I have seen him overlook at least two hundred hands or more, where he had the winning hand, but did not see it until someone at the table helped him { we play mostly Omaha, Omaha hi lo- 7stud hi -lo }

Now surely, you agree that this alone would qualify a person as being a weak poker player ? Yet this guy is beating the games regularly. We played Monday night and he won $1200. He won more hands Monday night, then I win in 4 weeks of playing.

Is this skill on his part ?

This old man is the perfect example to prove the power of good luck in poker, over the long term. His skill are weak, his good luck is strong.

 

[Josh Kifer]

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I only care if that poker player is STEALING DINOSAUR DNA

 

[rummeraises]

View attachment 268012

Im fine if you dont wish to discuss this subject. Surely you can find another topic that interests you ? If you dont care about this topic, why even post on this thread ? Are you in grade school ?

 

[Lemonzest]

Well, heres the situation. Ive played with this old man for 10 years now..sometimes 3 games per week { mostly pot limit}.

Out of the 11 local players, I would rate his play as being below average. In 10 years, I bet I have seen him overlook at least two hundred hands or more, where he had the winning hand, but did not see it until someone at the table helped him { we play mostly Omaha, Omaha hi lo- 7stud hi -lo }

Now surely, you agree that this alone would qualify a person as being a weak poker player ? Yet this guy is beating the games regularly. We played Monday night and he won $1200. He won more hands Monday night, then I win in 4 weeks of playing.

Is this skill on his part ?

This old man is the perfect example to prove the power of good luck in poker, over the long term. His skill are weak, his good luck is strong.

It is variance.

Last weekend at our 20 NL game a really bad drunk and high player cleaned house and walked with $180 which might be the biggest single win I have seen in a night at our game. This too was just variance.

Think of the classic all in "race" getting it in preflop with AK vs. QQ. Assuming both hands are off suit then AK will win about 43% of the time and QQ will win about 56% of the time. Every time QQ gets all in prelfop against AK they are getting their money in good. However, there is nothing to stop QQ from losing 10 so called flips in a row. This is just statistical variation aka variance.

Luck as a word is kind of meaningless as it is just a placeholder to describe something we don't understand. However, when it comes to poker luck does not exist, it is statistical variance. No amount of rabbit feet or throwing salt over your shoulder will change your result.

 

[krafticus]

Well, heres the situation. Ive played with this old man for 10 years now..sometimes 3 games per week { mostly pot limit}.

Out of the 11 local players, I would rate his play as being below average. In 10 years, I bet I have seen him overlook at least two hundred hands or more, where he had the winning hand, but did not see it until someone at the table helped him { we play mostly Omaha, Omaha hi lo- 7stud hi -lo }

Now surely, you agree that this alone would qualify a person as being a weak poker player ? Yet this guy is beating the games regularly. We played Monday night and he won $1200. He won more hands Monday night, then I win in 4 weeks of playing.

Is this skill on his part ?

This old man is the perfect example to prove the power of good luck in poker, over the long term. His skill are weak, his good luck is strong.

I mean, this could be one of the best angles we've ever seen. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing, and makes it seem like he has no idea. If I could get that working for me, having people think I have no idea what is going on and consistently beat them time and time again .. I'd do it each and every time.

 

[timinater]

Now surely, you agree that this alone would qualify a person as being a weak poker player ? Yet this guy is beating the games regularly. We played Monday night and he won $1200. He won more hands Monday night, then I win in 4 weeks of playing.

I mean this in the nicest way possible, but man, you guys must suck at poker then if he's the big winner.

 

[rummeraises]

It is variance.

Last weekend at our 20 NL game a really bad drunk and high player cleaned house and walked with $180 which might be the biggest single win I have seen in a night at our game. This too was just variance.

Think of the classic all in "race" getting it in preflop with AK vs. QQ. Assuming both hands are off suit then AK will win about 43% of the time and QQ will win about 56% of the time. Every time QQ gets all in prelfop against AK they are getting their money in good. However, there is nothing to stop QQ from losing 10 so called flips in a row. This is just statistical variation aka variance.

Luck as a word is kind of meaningless as it is just a placeholder to describe something we don't understand. However, when it comes to poker luck does not exist, it is statistical variance. No amount of rabbit feet or throwing salt over your shoulder will change your result.

So our local weak player who has been beating the games for 10 years, is just experiencing good luck variance ?

 

[rummeraises]

I mean this in the nicest way possible, but man, you guys must suck at poker then if he's the big winner.

Ive been playing poker for 40 years . My father did it for a living back in Baltimore. Ive played with many high stakes players you've seen on tv. Im not gonna brag about my results in poker, but lets say this, most players in society would love to have done as good as I have done.

I can assure you, this old man does not win on skill, nor does he win because all the other players suck. There a 4 very good local players and yet none of them have the win cycle this old man has had for 10 years. More proof of the power of good luck.

I am very alert, skilled and disciplined. When I sit down at the table, I recognize who the strong players are and who the weak players are. I also can identify when luck becomes a significant factor. I have never seen anyone run as lucky as this old man.

 

[rummeraises]

I mean, this could be one of the best angles we've ever seen. He knows EXACTLY what he is doing, and makes it seem like he has no idea. If I could get that working for me, having people think I have no idea what is going on and consistently beat them time and time again .. I'd do it each and every time.

Ive seen this old man, overlook his winning hand, and let the losing hand take the pot....sometimes hundreds of dollars . I doubt this old man is acting. Once again, you really would have to sit down with this old man, for a lot of session, to get a idea of what im talking about. It is uncanny. He is living proof of the power of good luck in poker.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Lol just how lucky can he be if he is folding winners on a regular basis!?!

I’ll take my chances with my skill vs his perceived luck any day.

 

[Josh Kifer]

This thread is someone looking down from above and saying "Josh, you deserve some fun today. You've worked hard"

Blessed.

 

[Kain8]

Im fine if you dont wish to discuss this subject. Surely you can find another topic that interests you ? If you dont care about this topic, why even post on this thread ? Are you in grade school ?

Because I don't suffer fools lightly, and you're either that or a troll.

You're ignoring a lot of empirical explanations that others have brought forth regarding your COMPLETELY esoteric situation. You're trying to create a discussion about something that others can't appreciate because we have no context nor an iota of empathy with your lack of appreciating the insights you've been given already.

Your chest thumping of playing for 40+ years is not a credential. If you're as good as you say you are, then what the hell do you need the input from us plebs?

A discussion about something intangible as what you've seen in this game is meaningless to us. I can say the same exact things, but what's my endgame? What am I trying to derive by putting it out there in the first place? I pose those questions to you.

 

[Josh Kifer]

I suck at poker. I got allot of fine chips tho.

 

[rummeraises]

Lol just how lucky can he be if he is folding winners on a regular basis!?!

I’ll take my chances with my skill vs his perceived luck any day.

He overlooks his hands . This is why he turns up his hole cards at the end of each hand . We have a rule on our local games, that if you turn your hole cards up at the end of the hand, other players at the table can help you , if you overlooked your winning hand.

Until I played poker with this lucky old man, I used to believe that LUCK, doesnt mean much over the long term. I have now been forced to admit I was wrong and that Luck can have a huge impact over the long term in poker. Luck does not always equal out for all poker players. That is a lie.

 

[timinater]

This thread is someone looking down from above and saying "Josh, you deserve some fun today. You've worked hard"

Blessed.

Let's take about 5-10% off there bud.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Let's take about 5-10% off there bud.

That's a Texas sized 10-4.