slisk250
Straight Flush
in
Royal Flush Giveaway *Closed* and *Completed* (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter WedgeRock
- Start date
Beaniman
Two Pair
Did I make it?
OP
OP
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
Alright, so we're good to go. Lets start by picking the lucky seat for Table 1.
So Seat 7 will get to choose one of the following chips. I tried to grab a mix of things...roulettes, a frac, ones, snappers and even a fiver. Bud Jones, TRK, house molds, RHC and THC. Hopefully everyone can find something they like. And I'm listing more chips than are being given away, so the last winner will still have a pick.
So let's see who's sitting at Table 1... The first 9 randomized names will get a seat:
Congrats, @grantc54, you have until Table 2 is seated to pick a chip from the pic above.
So Seat 7 will get to choose one of the following chips. I tried to grab a mix of things...roulettes, a frac, ones, snappers and even a fiver. Bud Jones, TRK, house molds, RHC and THC. Hopefully everyone can find something they like. And I'm listing more chips than are being given away, so the last winner will still have a pick.
So let's see who's sitting at Table 1... The first 9 randomized names will get a seat:
Congrats, @grantc54, you have until Table 2 is seated to pick a chip from the pic above.
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OP
OP
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
Seating Table 1: @krafticus, @JeepologyOffroad, @Sprouty, @Moxie Mike, @Nuhockey, @bigdonkey, @grantc54, @Sunshine, @Chesky1326
I forgot to snap a pic of the hands preflop... Luckily, I read @BonScot's excellent Paint Skillz tutorial...
The boys have a game tonight... Discuss, and I'll post the board after I get home.
I forgot to snap a pic of the hands preflop... Luckily, I read @BonScot's excellent Paint Skillz tutorial...
The boys have a game tonight... Discuss, and I'll post the board after I get home.
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Seat 8: AKc53s3h
Ok, here we go, gimme an A. Wait, they're all out. Um, hit me with a 3. Oops, they're all out, too. Well, with a 2 and 4 along with ... uh, never mind.
There's gotta be some clubs left in this deck, right? I'm gonna need ALL of them to hit the board! You say there aren't any left? Really?
Ok, here we go, gimme an A. Wait, they're all out. Um, hit me with a 3. Oops, they're all out, too. Well, with a 2 and 4 along with ... uh, never mind.
There's gotta be some clubs left in this deck, right? I'm gonna need ALL of them to hit the board! You say there aren't any left? Really?
Moxie Mike
Full House
10-10-8-8-7
I like my chances of making the nut straight... there's one 6,7,9,J,Q and K all live, the board can't pair and the only suit that could make a flush is spades (there are exactly 3 left in the stub).
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I just need the three spades out of the seven cards in the stub to hit the board?
I like the sounds of that!
Moxie Mike
Full House
I was curious so I tried running the numbers but I'm getting mixed results using this probability tool:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
When I input 5 trials with a population of 7 with 3 success the tool returns these results (28.5% of making your flush):
However - since we're guaranteed to see at least one spade on the board at some point, I ran it accordingly (4 trials, population of 6 with 2 successes) and the tool returned 40%:
Can someone explain why the probably changes, if either of these are accurate and if not, how do we actually calculate the odds @Sprouty will make his flush?
Mangatang
Straight
Running it through Excel with 10,000 trials, I get 28.72%
Would love that Borgata snapper!
Moxie Mike
Full House
I ran it through another tool and got the same 28.5% and 40% figures respectively. I still don't understand why the odds change though. When I double all the values, the odds drop from 28.5% to 6.9%.
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
Pretty easy to calculate going the burns going runner-runner not spade:
4/7 * 3/6 = 28.6%
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
If you look at the situation as drawing 2 non spades and whatever remains is the board, it’s clearer why you need to keep all 3 spades in there as eligible to be not on the board. The 28 is the right one, not 40
Mangatang
Straight
I think your 40% result is the probability after the first card is turned over and it's a spade.
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OP
OP
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
The only way the flush doesn't come is if at least one of the burns is a spade. Which would be the same odds that at least one of the first two cards is not a spade.
(4/7*3/6)=percentage of both stub cards to be non-spades (ie all three spades on the board)=28.57% for the flush to hit.
(4/7*3/6)=percentage of both stub cards to be non-spades (ie all three spades on the board)=28.57% for the flush to hit.
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I think I’m drawing dead
Moxie Mike
Full House
My thought the fact that one spade is guaranteed to appear shouldn't affect the math overall. I also don't understand why doubling all the values changes the probability as well.
Mangatang
Straight
Yes, at least one spade is guaranteed. But, not on the first card. Your calculation is like evaluating your odds after you turn the first board card over, and it's a spade. If you evaluate at that point, you have greatly increased your odds.
45 of the 52 cards are out there. I’m on my phone, and don’t feel like figuring out what they are. I know at least 1 king, 1 nine are out there
Is it time for Poker is stupid?
Poker is always stupid
Moxie Mike
Full House
Damn how did I miss this.
I was eyeing that myself!
Wedge, the final table is what determines the mystery box? The lucky seats pick from the prize pool?
OP
OP
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
Lucky seats get to pick a chip. All 9 tables winners play a final flipbfor the mystery prize.
OP
OP
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
If you spike a 4-flush by the turn I hope @WedgeRock waits until March to post the river
Not a bad flop for pocket 6's, eh @bigdonkey?
@Sprouty's chance of hitting the flush is now 50%... there is a non-spade 9 out there for the straight, however (which @Sprouty would also chop).
Part of the problem with so many of the cards being out is many are already dead...
To be continued in March...
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