slisk250
Straight Flush
in
Did I make it?
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10-10-8-8-7The boys have a game tonight... Discuss, and I'll post the board after I get home.
only suit that could make a flush is spades (the
I just need the three spades out of the seven cards in the stub to hit the board?
I like the sounds of that!
Alright, so we're good to go. Lets start by picking the lucky seat for Table 1.
View attachment 407070
So Seat 7 will get to choose one of the following chips. I tried to grab a mix of things...roulettes, a frac, ones, snappers and even a fiver. Bud Jones, TRK, house molds, RHC and THC. Hopefully everyone can find something they like. And I'm listing more chips than are being given away, so the last winner will still have a pick.
View attachment 407071
So let's see who's sitting at Table 1... The first 9 randomized names will get a seat:
View attachment 407073
Congrats, @grantc54, you have until Table 2 is seated to pick a chip from the pic above.
I ran it through another tool and got the same 28.5% and 40% figures respectively. I still don't understand why the odds change though. When I double all the values, the odds drop from 28.5% to 6.9%.Running it through Excel with 10,000 trials, I get 28.72%
Pretty easy to calculate going the burns going runner-runner not spade:I was curious so I tried running the numbers but I'm getting mixed results using this probability tool:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
When I input 5 trials with a population of 7 with 3 success the tool returns these results (28.5% of making your flush):
View attachment 407241
However - since we're guaranteed to see at least one spade on the board at some point, I ran it accordingly (4 trials, population of 6 with 2 successes) and the tool returned 40%:
View attachment 407244
Can someone explain why the probably changes, if either of these are accurate and if not, how do we actually calculate the odds @Sprouty will make his flush?
I ran it through another tool and got the same 28.5% and 40% figures respectively. I still don't understand why the odds change though. When I double all the values, the odds drop from 28.5% to 6.9%.
I think your 40% result is the probability after the first card is turned over and it's a spade.I ran it through another tool and got the same 28.5% and 40% figures respectively. I still don't understand why the odds change though. When I double all the values, the odds drop from 28.5% to 6.9%.
I think your 40% result is what the probability would if the first card you turned over was a spade.
Yes, at least one spade is guaranteed. But, not on the first card. Your calculation is like evaluating your odds after you turn the first board card over, and it's a spade. If you evaluate at that point, you have greatly increased your odds.My thought the fact that one spade is guaranteed to appear shouldn't affect the math overall. I also don't understand why doubling all the values changes the probability as well.
Is it time for Poker is stupid?45 of the 52 cards are out there. I’m on my phone, and don’t feel like figuring out what they are. I know at least 1 king, 1 nine are out there
Poker is always stupidIs it time for Poker is stupid?
I raise.
Edit: I mean bet.
I was eyeing that myself!Would love that Borgata snapper!
Lucky seats get to pick a chip. All 9 tables winners play a final flipbfor the mystery prize.I was eyeing that myself!
Wedge, the final table is what determines the mystery box? The lucky seats pick from the prize pool?
If you spike a 4-flush by the turn I hope @WedgeRock waits until March to post the river