Jason Mercier Bracelet Bet vs. Vanessa Selbst (4 Viewers)

Now that I think about it, +180 from the start seems really, really conservative.
 
Where would you put the odds @jbutler , if you had to guess?

Honestly I'm probably not the best person to ask since I typically don't follow the WSOP all that closely, but if you put a gun to my head I'd prob eyeball it at 7: or 8:1.
 
There's still a bunch of $10,000 tournaments still. O8, 2-7 triple draw and stud. Mercier seems on top of his game and while the task is hard I wouldn't put any money on him not getting a third.
 
There's still a bunch of $10,000 tournaments still. O8, 2-7 triple draw and stud. Mercier seems on top of his game and while the task is hard I wouldn't put any money on him not getting a third.

He was very close on getting a third - one spot away, to be exact. Getting a third is 'historically' a distant possibility, but it wouldn't surprise me the least, if it happened. To be fair, I want it to happen, and see the look on Vanessa's face, before and after she pays up $1.8M. If she welches out, I'll lost total respect in her.

If Mercier doesn't get his third, I'm sure he'll easily shrug off the $10K loss.
 
He was very close on getting a third - one spot away, to be exact. Getting a third is 'historically' a distant possibility, but it wouldn't surprise me the least, if it happened. To be fair, I want it to happen, and see the look on Vanessa's face, before and after she pays up $1.8M. If she welches out, I'll lost total respect in her.

If Mercier doesn't get his third, I'm sure he'll easily shrug off the $10K loss.

She hedged. At this point Mercier will be paid either in significant part or in whole by Mike McDonald (Timex).
 
She hedged. At this point Mercier will be paid either in significant part or in whole by Mike McDonald (Timex).

If thats the case, why does she seem to be so worried about it?
 
If thats the case, why does she seem to be so worried about it?

I haven't been following after I posted the OP so I don't know how much she has expressed worries after she hedged with Timex.
 
It's worth noting that in the 40+ year history of the WSOP, there have never been so many tournaments -- for the first 20-25 years there were only 15-20, so even though the fields were small, it was pretty freaking hard to win three of them. And the fact that people actually care about winning them so much is a fairly recent phenomenon -- the best players would pick and choose tournaments and often pass on them in favor of juicy cash games.

Ivey won quite a few in a small time span simply because of bracelet bets back in the FTP days. Now he rarely plays because he can't win any money from Howard Lederer if he wins. I'm not sure anyone has ever had as much motivation to win as Mercier has right now.
 
Not sure what kind of hedge math makes sense for Timex to buy here. WTF does she have to pay for even 50% insurance From Mike? Wish I could see the particulars on how she bought.
 
Not sure what kind of hedge math makes sense for Timex to buy here. WTF does she have to pay for even 50% insurance From Mike? Wish I could see the particulars on how she bought.

I've been wondering this myself. I can't believe that Timex would be dumb enough to make any deal with Vanessa that would result in any kind of significant hedge for her.
 
BTW, what's the deal with Jason's dog being at the table?

Dog's name is Marshmallow evidently which is pretty sweet. One of the stud regs at Borg used to have a service dog with him that supposedly smelled diabetes or some shit. Googled it when he first told me and it was apparently a real thing. If I ever get diabetes I'm taking my dog everyfuckingwhere.
 
FYI Jason is 5th in chips with 26 left in the $10k O8. He has about 25 bets so he's sitting with a full stack. Please god let him make another run.........
 
Looks like Jason finished the day with 8th of 16 remaining with 444k in chips (18.5 big bets). Still have a lot of hope!

Link to 10k O8 updates.
 
Looks like the streaming schedule for tonight lists the $10k O8 OR the Super Seniors $1k NLHE event.

If they stream the goddamn old people and not the sweat for Mercier's #3 David Tuchman is going to get blown up to hell and back on Twitter.

EDIT: Can't believe @courage liked this post. I know he was planning to sweat the Super Seniors event to see what kind of new tricks the kids have these days.
 
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lol. What's "streaming?"

@jbutler I hope you run like an Olympic champion between now and DCS. We need more spewtards in the game.
 

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