Jason Mercier Bracelet Bet vs. Vanessa Selbst

jbutler

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GOAT Gifs are tough. I couldn't find the dwan tugboat vs BG.

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Those are all pretty phenomenal. I think the durrrr tugboat vs. barryg gif is worn out for me because viffer used it as his avatar for so long. That Rounders parody is fucking top though.
 

jbutler

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Tough call. He's got so much motivation to get it. I'd have to say it's closer to a coin flip at this point.

Let me know where I can get even money on no number 3 and I will ship my 401k.

@chkmte and I negotiated terms by which I was allowed to bet my entire 401k on Jason not hitting number 3.

Unfortunately for both of us, my entire 401k is $75. But it's on nonetheless. So my $75 to his $50 with me taking no on number 3.
 

Burke

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@jbutler I assume you are still rooting for him to get it though. Obvi a good bet IMO, but it would still be epic to see him win 1.8 mil!
 

jbutler

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Checked Jason's Twitter soon after I woke up and got the good news (my money's safe) and the bad news (my money's safe). I thought he was in a pretty great spot in the $10k PLO since he's one of the better PLO tourney players in the world. Too bad.

Looking at the remaining events on the schedule, I'd think he'd have a decent shot in:

$50k Players Championship (7/2)
$25k PLO (7/6)
$111,111 High Roller for One Drop (7/8)

Other than that there are just huge fields left (well, relatively huge fields in the case of the small buy-in stud and PLO events).
 

jbutler

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I guess I'm gonna have to respectfully disagree with one of the best PLO tourney players in the world as to whether it was questionable for Le to get 26 BBs in with top two when HU on a board of AdJd9c.

Seems pretty standard to me, but it's relatively unlikely I'll win 3 bracelets this year.

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chkmte

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I like the "all-in" play here much better than the call. There are two diamonds + a possible treetop brewing. So, it's entirely possible that LE was up against a significant draw...or even trip 9's. I think MERCIER made the right play here.

I finally realized in low-stakes poker, you can't bluff someone who isnt paying attention. I think MERCIER gave LE too much credit and most likely planned on taking the pot down right then and there.
 

bergs

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I guess I'm gonna have to respectfully disagree with one of the best PLO tourney players in the world as to whether it was questionable for Le to get 26 BBs in with top two when HU on a board of AdJd9c.

Seems pretty standard to me, but it's relatively unlikely I'll win 3 bracelets this year.

View attachment 46771View attachment 46772

Before the hand Le would've had around 1M in chips, correct?

I don't like the shove by Mercier and I don't like the call by Le. Pretty incredible that they got it in and neither had even a bad diamond draw.
 

jbutler

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I like the "all-in" play here much better than the call. There are two diamonds + a possible treetop brewing. So, it's entirely possible that LE was up against a significant draw...or even trip 9's. I think MERCIER made the right play here.

I finally realized in low-stakes poker, you can't bluff someone who isnt paying attention. I think MERCIER gave LE too much credit and most likely planned on taking the pot down right then and there.

Disagree on all points. The fact that there are so many draws available is exactly what makes it a call by Le. Mercier has a ton more draws in his shoving range than value hands that beat AJxx not to mention value hands that do not beat AJxx. Call all day with those stacks.

Certainly you're right that it's harder to bluff bad players, but I don't think that's applicable here. Le is a successful PLO player. But even if we didn't know that at the time, he's playing in a $10k PLO event. Chances are he's got a clue.

Before the hand Le would've had around 1M in chips, correct?

Don't know what Le had before the hand, but Jason had something like 425k, so they were 425k effective.
 

bergs

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I like the "all-in" play here much better than the call. There are two diamonds + a possible treetop brewing. So, it's entirely possible that LE was up against a significant draw...or even trip 9's. I think MERCIER made the right play here.

I finally realized in low-stakes poker, you can't bluff someone who isnt paying attention. I think MERCIER gave LE too much credit and most likely planned on taking the pot down right then and there.

If the stacks were even, I love the Mercier play, Given the relative stack sizes, I think Mercier has to realize that Le can make this call pretty easily with a lot of different hands (sets, OESD, good flush draws). Mercier must've been shocked to see him call with just top 2 - that's gotta be at the absolute bottom of his range.

Why is Le calling? He's 77% against Mercier in this spot but give Mercier a diamond draw (make the Q9 diamonds) and he's a 45/55 dog.

Gross spot for everyone. Was Le throwing back the Mic Ultras like Scottie Nguyen?
 

bergs

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Disagree on all points. The fact that there are so many draws available is exactly what makes it a call by Le. Mercier has a ton more draws in his shoving range than value hands that beat AJxx not to mention value hands that do not beat AJxx. Call all day with those stacks.

Certainly you're right that it's harder to bluff bad players, but I don't think that's applicable here. Le is a successful PLO player. But even if we didn't know that at the time, he's playing in a $10k PLO event. Chances are he's got a clue.

Actually, you just answered my question regarding why Le is calling - again, if the stacks are even, I think it's a tank fold, but if he can call off only 1/3 of his stack and put Mercier on the rail with even a coin flip, I guess it's a solid call.
 

chkmte

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...and that's why it's called poker. So many different opinions. I love it.
 

chkmte

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Disagree on all points. The fact that there are so many draws available is exactly what makes it a call by Le.
I guess in my mind, unless LE has a drawing hand, he's got to fold. I fold two pair in that spot for sure. Yet, I don't know anything and haven't won a bracelet - ever.
 

chkmte

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I'm going to wait on your offer @jbutler, perhaps there is someone within the forum that will purchase my burden.
 
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