A hand against Johnny C in $25/$50 NLHE (2 Viewers)

[RagingAZN]

What is our image to JC at the moment?

 

[DirtyTIVA]

It's at least 10 cards I'm worried about. Any other queen, king, or ace provided the thinking is that villain has two of those that they're floating with post flop. Jack's are strong but vulnerable. Just seems like playing with fire to let villain realize their equity on future streets by betting small. This is a situation where hero can lose a big pot on the river or win a small to modest one before that.

Now if the river brings in a set for hero and villain leads out, now things can get spicy...

My thoughts exactly. Would be happy to win a small pot here with JJ (debatably any pot with JJ). The alternative is likely a bigger loss. There are better spots to try to win a huge pot (set or boat or having/drawing to the nuts).

Maybe the philosophical difference in small bet sizing is professional players who see far more hands trying to maximize long term value versus recreational players like me who are only trying to make the right decisions on individual hands.

 

[MajorTom]

What is our image to JC at the moment?

quite good:

"
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed."

 

[TheJestyr]

I check here and almost always call river (depending on sizing). He’s likely never calling with worse than Jacks and if he happens to catch on the river, fine. But I’m giving him a chance to bluff river. And if I end up just paying him off, fine too. It’s just too close of a spot for me to want to build a pot with such big stacks behind.

 

[MrCatPants]

Maybe the philosophical difference in small bet sizing is professional players who see far more hands trying to maximize long term value versus recreational players like me who are only trying to make the right decisions on individual hands.

These are the same things ultimately?

I would think it's more how much you trust yourself to manage the turn and river.

 

[RagingAZN]

quite good:

"
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed."

I guess what I was getting at is whether we are sunrunning because we are sucking out or whether we are just getting big hands vs other not so big hands. If he thinks we're a luckbox just barreling away, that's different to if he thinks we're a competent player able to barrel 3 times.

 

[Frogzilla]

I like Froggy’s thinking. $2400-2800 and if the river is clean setup a jam. We didn’t come to the Bicycle to play 1/2 with those silly, silly racks of $1 chips. We came here to bust Johnny Mother Fucking Chan.

PS I hope we’re not getting Seideled here.

I was feeling amazing about my analysis until you agreed with me.

Is JJ with Jc a check here because our blocker makes it a puke fold to a turn jam?

Is it a 2x overbet because of the massive range advantage?

Someone with Pio help me where did I go wrong

 

[Goldfish]

I would check, then call any river bet, then immediately after the hand, win or lose, I would move to a plo table.

 

[bergs]

I was feeling amazing about my analysis until you agreed with me.

Is JJ with Jc a check here because our blocker makes it a puke fold to a turn jam?

Is it a 2x overbet because of the massive range advantage?

Someone with Pio help me where did I go wrong

TBH I was deriving my own line and read yours and said out loud “oh dear”.

Then I passed out and woke up 28 minutes later. If I’m going to channel you, I want to emulate the entire experience.

 

[MajorTom]

I guess what I was getting at is whether we are sunrunning because we are sucking out or whether we are just getting big hands vs other not so big hands. If he thinks we're a luckbox just barreling away, that's different to if he thinks we're a competent player able to barrel 3 times.

I agree, but only @Windwalker can answer your question and even he could only guess what Johnny was thinking . Anyway i think @Windwalker `s image was quite good when playing this hand

 

[DirtyTIVA]

These are the same things ultimately?

I would think it's more how much you trust yourself to manage the turn and river.

Maybe not. I’m talking about if we bet small on the flop and something marginal that should have folded to a 3/4 pot bet instead hangs around and catches on the turn leading to us losing the hand would really piss me off. Versus the idea that we bet small inviting the lower equity hands to statistically miss the turn as well to extract more value from them on later streets instead of blowing them off the hand immediately on the flop.

I would personally choose only getting one street of value instead of losing because I was trying to get more streets of value with a marginal hand like JJ.

Full disclosure I’m usually the one playing 89 and calling small flop bets with marginal holdings hoping to crack that overconfident overpair most people can’t seem to lay down. So when I have the lone overpair I’m not playing cute at all.

 

[Senzrock]

Continuing…

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Hero?

With this turn card, one of the things we have to begin thinking about is: Is our hand (JJ) a two street or three street hand in terms of value? I think it is clearly 2 streets (vs a tough/tight professional) because I don't see JC calling off with A9s here to three barrels. If we can agree on two streets, then the next question is: which two streets do we want to bet? We bet $900 on the flop (I like the sizing), so now we an either bet turn and potentially check back river or we can check turn (giving villain the read that we ourselves have the AK/AQ of the world) and proceed to bet on the river (we can merge our hand on the river with a big overbet even on a nice blank). I think a mix of either betting the turn or river is fine. I probably lean towards betting turn and then checking back some rivers but I don't mind a bet-check-bet line at all, it's kind of nice with this hand.

 

[Senzrock]

Maybe not. I’m talking about if we bet small on the flop and something marginal that should have folded to a 3/4 pot bet instead hangs around and catches on the turn leading to us losing the hand would really piss me off. Versus the idea that we bet small inviting the lower equity hands to statistically miss the turn as well to extract more value from them on later streets instead of blowing them off the hand immediately on the flop.

I would personally choose only getting one street of value instead of losing because I was trying to get more streets of value with a marginal hand like JJ.

Full disclosure I’m usually the one playing 89 and calling small flop bets with marginal holdings hoping to crack that overconfident overpair most people can’t seem to lay down. So when I have the lone overpair I’m not playing cute at all.

This is where the math actually becomes important. When we hold JJ vs say AQs on a 9xx board, and we make a decision to bet $800 or $900 into the $2k pot, we have a pretty straight forward math problem for what it will cost villain to see the turn. Remember, and this is key, we are only letting villain see one card here right (and we are allowed to hit another J of course), so that would be 3 x A + 3X QS for one street (6 outs x 2% = 12%). Now discomfort aside (because really it is about a mental discomfort here when we speak of things like "I want to bet big because something bad could happen later" (or some variety thereof), discomfort aside, is it profitable to charge our opponent $900 for their 12% chance to hit one of their 6 cards? The math is clear that this is profitable. If you as a player are not comfortable with making this play, it just means that you are losing expected value in this specific spot (and these spots add up quick, so it likely is putting a dent in your overall winnings).

 

[Senzrock]

This is where the math actually becomes important. When we hold JJ vs say AQs on a 9xx board, and we make a decision to bet $800 or $900 into the $2k pot, we have a pretty straight forward math problem for what it will cost villain to see the turn. Remember, and this is key, we are only letting villain see one card here right (and we are allowed to hit another J of course), so that would be 3 x A + 3X QS for one street (6 outs x 2% = 12%). Now discomfort aside (because really it is about a mental discomfort here when we speak of things like "I want to bet big because something bad could happen later" (or some variety thereof), discomfort aside, is it profitable to charge our opponent $900 for their 12% chance to hit one of their 6 cards? The math is clear that this is profitable. If you as a player are not comfortable with making this play, it just means that you are losing expected value in this specific spot (and these spots add up quick, so it likely is putting a dent in your overall winnings).

But wait! There is even more reason to bet smaller on many flops! We could of course already be beat right? So if villain has the AA and plays it tricky (certainly within JC's arsenal) or if he hit that 10%'er on the flop with a set of 9s... when we bet larger, we are also losing more. Now, of course it is less likely that he has the AA or the 99 right, but you see that the point remains. We want to (1) get value from worse hands and (2) lose as little as possible when we get unlucky - betting small will actually help you do both of these things over the long run.

 

[Senzrock]

But wait! There is even more reason to bet smaller on many flops! We could of course already be beat right? So if villain has the AA and plays it tricky (certainly within JC's arsenal) or if he hit that 10%'er on the flop with a set of 9s... when we bet larger, we are also losing more. Now, of course it is less likely that he has the AA or the 99 right, but you see that the point remains. We want to (1) get value from worse hands and (2) lose as little as possible when we get unlucky - betting small will actually help you do both of these things over the long run.

And just to be very clear - if we had a stronger hand than JJ on a 98xx board, then we could experiment with additional strategies right? Overbets, check-backs on the flop etc. If it was us with the set of 9s, we would think about the hand in a completely different light. JJ however is the 10th best hand on the turn, and we are up against a world class player, so all of these data points inform our strategy.

 

[Windwalker]

Continuing…

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Pot is now $3875.

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

Hero?

 

[JMC9389]

I don't see how hero is ahead of anything that JC is jamming with. I don't see him really getting out of line with two overs unless he has exactly AK or AQ of clubs.

No use in trying to get information. Guy isn't going to give up any live tells.

This is what I do. I take a coin out of my pocket and flip in on the table. Heads I call, tails I fold.

I think he has the Ax of clubs, for what it's worth. If he has a set or straight he wouldn't have tanked or Hollywooded it.

 

[Senzrock]

Continuing…

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Pot is now $3875.

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

Hero?

This is a very annoying spot - and it actually is a case study in why it is worth betting small (both flop + turn if we decided to bet both). From what I know about JC, this is probably a sigh fold, but against a lot of players we will just have to call off here with the overpair and hope they have the combo draw that made a light call on the flop. In JC's shoes, we are representing the overpair, and he is hoping that we can't fold it. We hold JJ so the JT draw is unlikely. Is JC raise-calling a hand like A5cc preflop off of his stack? I really don't know enough a out him, but from what I've seen on streams in the past, it seems like he might not even get to the flop with that hand (my memory is that he is very tight - just grinding out the stakes that are comfortable for him). If he does get to the flop, he is often just calling turn instead of making a dramatic shove with just one card to come and his opponent repping a strong hand themselves.

So very player dependent, we are block the club so less likely he is on the club draw and we discussed the JT draw which he rarely has... think it's an annoying fold. On this turn the check-back for hero makes a lot of sense and then we get to the river with a disguised overpair that can pick off bluffs or go for value vs a third check. Now we are looking at playing a massive pot with just one pair and we probably have to toss it against this specific villain.

 

[cpac54]

Continuing…

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Pot is now $3875.

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

Hero?

Windwalker (folds): "Did you have it?"
JC: "I'm sorry, Krish, I don't remember."

 

[DirtyTIVA]

I would fold. JC has seen you sun run including the triple up with QQ on hand 2 (you’re not unwilling to put the money in). He likely puts you on a big pair and in my opinion it feels like he expects you to call off.

 

[theshepherd]

I think it is unlikely that he is behind here. I would fold too.

 

[MajorTom]

Continuing…

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Pot is now $3875.

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

Hero?

Don`t crack under pressure! Call!
JC has a flush draw with

 

[Highli99]

I mean the bet is essentially the pot. How often do we need to be right here?

Somone do maff. A world class player can find bluffs, people.

Seems like a pretty simple call imo. What do I know tho…

 

[doctorchips]

This made my day.

 

[JMC9389]

This made my day.

Very pertinent too when JC shows up with a set of ducks somehow lol

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Is the money worth the story if you're wrong? 14k for a Johnny Chan took me to value town is a lot for me, but for some people it might be worth it

 

[Tonysquander]

I am calling which means you should probably fold.

 

[Machine]

So Doyle said something to the effect of, if you would put up your net worth on 2 to 1 for a coin flip, you're a gambler. Johnny is a gambler, I know a guy that use to run around in vegas with him, Johnny's a Degen through and through; He also has to be tainted by guys putting a run on him. In for 2k and another buy in in my bag, yeah bb I'd pay him off, then post about it on PCF

 

[NitCole]

Yeah turn spot is quite annoying. Your hand is likely a 2 street hand, and 67 getting there isn't great. Also having the Jc makes calling turn not ideal. I think we bet/fold turn with intentions on checking back most rivers.

Alternatively we could've checked turn to value bet/ bluff catch river.

 

[JustinInMN]

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

Hero?

This still feels like a move. It really feels like this shove is 99 or nothing. (maybe 88 as well?) Maybe it's clubs? But then Chan called too big a price on the flop to "hit" a chance to draw. But Chan could just be thinking (with all respect to "Rounders") "I'm just going to outplay this guy, this hand." From his perspective, I think hero has a lot of air as well, even with two-barreling.

That said, if he was really nutty here, why would Chan try and take hero out of the lead for such a large amount? Why would he risk giving hero a chance to fold some decent value?

I guess I won't be that shocked to see a set, but I think hero should call here. There's enough doubt and it's 7500 to win 9000 or so. Don't have to be right even half the time for the call to be correct.