A hand against Johnny C in $25/$50 NLHE (4 Viewers)

[Senzrock]

Conclusion:

$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.

4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.

V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.

Hero has in the CO.

V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.

Folds to hero.

Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.

Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.

Flop is



Villain checks.

So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.

Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.

Turn is

Villain checks.

Pot is now $3875.

This card is not the worst, but it does start to fill out some of V's expected range. AXc now has a flush draw, 8s have filled out, 67s has hit its gutter, etc. That said, we're still ahead most of the time with our Js, and given the lack of a 4-bet, we're discounting Qs, Ks and Aces. We decide to barrel again.

Hero bets $2600.

Villain tanks. We're trying to avoid eye contact by staring at the loose chip stack in the middle of the table, and while the pot itself isn't HUGE, this is J fucking C, and he has the same initials as Jesus, and is one letter advanced from James Bond and Jason Bourne, and we are nervous, ffs.

In fact, he tanks for so long that we eventually look up at him, and we find him staring at us. Steel, pure damn steel.

He then pushes a stack of chips forward, and says "All in."

We ask the dealer to pull in the $2600, and get a count of what's left.
Dealer announces that it's $7475.

We are extremely miffed by this bet. Now, not only do we have to deal with the fact that Johnny effing Chan has us in a pressure cooker, but we have to consider that our read is wrong.

What could he be shoving with? What does he think we have that would make us call? Surely he can tell we have an overpair. Which means he really wants us to call, if he has 8s, 9s, or other hidden hands like 89s.

Or, could he have a combo draw? We’re a bit too nervous to think clearly. But something must be done, everyone is staring.

In the end, we decide a call is best because we’re most likely still ahead. We settle on him having a flush draw or combo draw — like AXc, 9c7c, etc.

We call, and ask how many times he wants to run it.

He says “once”.

River is

He turns over . He missed!

We sunran that night, till 11am the next morning. We felted 5 of the 8 other players, including the villain twice.

In for $2000. Out for $114,000.

View attachment 1179950

Very interesting hand! Nice call and strong hold on the river. It's an interesting spot to review again and see what kind of strategies make sense given how the hand played out. Obviously we got max value, but I wonder if we check back turn and we see that 6, what ends up happening. JC is good enough to realize that it's a great bluff card of course, but he probably also doesn't think you are folding very often... also interesting to think about which of these lines make us the most profit if we played then 10x or 100x.

GG!

 

[Mandos]

How do we think JCs long tank on the turn should effect our decision if at all? I'm guessing it factored into @Windwalker 's read at some level (subconscious if nothing else) but seems to be ignored by much of the analysis

 

[doctorchips]

How do we think JCs long tank on the turn should effect our decision if at all? I'm guessing it factored into @Windwalker 's read at some level (subconscious if nothing else) but seems to be ignored by much of the analysis

It maybe played into his read of him having a draw and calling off with 75% chance he doesn't hit it on the river?

Still, tough call to make. Probably factors in that lots of people aren't playing at these stakes, so calling someone shoving 3-4 grand on a single hand might read to some as him raising with 99 and hitting a set on the flop. Polarizing spot - either he has it, has nothing, or he's gambling hard for an outer.

 

[Rakrul]

Easy to be results oriented here, but I think we gotta look at the bigger picture. When he ships a9cc against your perceived-overpaid range, he's not merging (especially because a9cc makes an AMAZING call -- call if he thinks you can have air every once in a while, as he has your bluffs drawing dead and might beat a single combo of t9 or something.) He's shipping it because he reads you as having nothing but overpairs and maybe ak here, and he has the single best bluffing combination against that range: it blocks AA, blocks 99, AND has equity when called! (and he probably thinks hes always behind ott.)

Don't know anything about this player, but if your range is really overpairs/AK and the guy is a somewhat thinking player, then JJ just has to go into the muck (especially blocking AJcc.) If you think the guy is bluffing more than 1/4 of the time here, then sure you can snap it off, but I think its hard to find more than just ajcc atcc (and apparently a9cc) and maybe tjxx because aqcc and ak+ are likely to be 4bet by him. 99 88 98 67 55 gets you to like 14 combos, he has 2+4=6 bluffs, but his bluffs have around 20% equity each against you so its more like he has 14.2 combos of value and 4.8 bluffs. You have 25.2% here, which means you really just go purely based on reads.

First of all, JC doesn't play GTO and probably hasn't studied it too hard either but I might be wrong. I think Hero being nervous for playing a legend was misinterpreted as Ax bluffing. Or he saw Hero was nervous and expected some of his ahead-hands to be folded.
Or maybe he just likes to gamb00l.

Great analysis btw.
Why aren't you counting A5cc, 8Txx,79cc or 56cc here? Not likely to RFI with these?

 

[NeutronHim]

First of all, JC doesn't play GTO and probably hasn't studied it too hard either but I might be wrong. I think Hero being nervous for playing a legend was misinterpreted as Ax bluffing. Or he saw Hero was nervous and expected some of his ahead-hands to be folded.
Or maybe he just likes to gamb00l.

Great analysis btw.
Why aren't you counting A5cc, 8Txx,79cc or 56cc here? Not likely to RFI with these?

I feel like people tend to bluff the nut flush draw a bit more in these spots so they can bink an ace vs overpairs, and call weaker fd.
8t is not doing this (floating flop) (probably, unless he thinks you are folding range in a lot of turn/river spots) 79cc should probably fold pre if it somehow opens and gets 3bet. Same with 56cc, although maybe that hand makes a little more sense imo for board coverage vs certain players. (We can see post hoc that jc is thinking about blocking value, and 56cc doesn't, so maybe he doesn't find the raise with this hand anyhow.) Anyways, obviously there's no way you are doing this much analysis in real time but since 9tcc blocks tt, the hand most likely to fold, we can probably say that of all the random club combos jc is only finding 89cc here. However, this uses too much info about jc that I'm just kinda making up -- my main reason is kinda just "he probably just bluffs the nfd lol."

idk who this jc guy is but if hes just some uber crusher that doesnt think about combos and just knows what you have then that's a little more scary in my opinion than him just targeting a capped range

 

[TheRealTeddyKGB]

idk who this jc guy is but

 

[Windwalker]

idk who this jc guy is

Wait. You do killer analysis, but you don’t know who Johnny Chan is? You must be under the age of 25, right?

 

[aggie]

you don’t know who Johnny Chan is?

just some uber crusher

 

[Frogzilla]

I’d wager JC doesn’t feel great about this line the next day. Perhaps he considered himself pot committed so didn’t want to play river OOP? Picked up equity on turn and got blinders on? Maybe WW intentionally or not gave him a false read?

 

[JustinInMN]

He turns over . He missed!

This is a pretty light open that nobody mentioned in 4 pages. That's kind of impressive actually.

From Chan's perspective, the flop play makes sense. But then he's turning a nine into a bluff, or I suppose he could be playing protection. But I find either of those approaches confusing. Holding an ace himself I would think he would have to skew hero's range heavily toward TT-KK here which would make it really tough for me to bluff someone that's sun-running. Also most hero's non pair hands have only 3 outs except for what few hero would have that don't contain an ace. I would think Chan would try and keep those hands in.

That said, I suppose the case for Chan going all in on the turn is this.
1) Hero might lay down a better hand (though doubtful if a player is active and winning, players on such streaks don't often make hero folds)
2) Even if he lays down a worse hand, this pot is big and worth protecting from even 3-outers
3) He has pretty good odds even if called (14 outs against TT-KK)

But I think hero figured out how polarizing this bet is and made the call. Good job Krish!

 

[warma]

Knowing Johnny as well as I do, I’m certain he made the all-in/call move based on the minute hand shown when Krish looked up. Odd: all-in. Even: call.

 

[Poker Zombie]

My takes on JC's play. May be way off base, but it's a take not yet discussed.

• This was the first game Chan and Krish have met.
• Krish was admittedly nervous.
• Krish bought in short.
• Krish can't afford a new t-shirt. I know it was sold as distressed/vintage/whatever, but they eye sees what it sees, and the brain interprets, correctly or not.
• Krish had run up a monster stack for a $2k buy-in, but only ran it up (at this point) to a solid buy-in.

I think Chan was straight-up trying to intimidate Krish. It would appear that Krish had a lot to lose, and may just protect his run-up in a game he was playing over his head/bankroll. Chan is well aware of his celebrity status. The icy-cold stare, where he couldn't shove until he could get the max value "I'm shoving while staring you straight in the eye" maneuver.

 

[joeyshin]

Wind walking sun running. Next is water bending?

 

[MrCatPants]

There's a good number of people in the comments questioning Chan's shove here, and I'm surprised. The equity he has with TPTK plus the NFD is pretty strong, and even with the ace blocker a majority percentage of @Windwalker 's range is still going to be Ax hands vs. overpairs. And even the overpairs are put in a terrible spot - particularly 10s and to a degree JJ. It would have gotten folds from many on here - per the below seemed like more than half the commenters would have folded.

(nothing wrong with that at all by the way, just pointing out that the jam would have gotten folds from many players in this situation.)

Even if called still has around 30% equity or so.

Heads I call, tails I fold.

... think it's an annoying fold.

Windwalker (folds):

I would fold.

I think it is unlikely that he is behind here. I would fold too.

I am calling which means you should probably fold.

I think we bet/fold turn

 

[JustinInMN]

There's a good number of people in the comments questioning Chan's shove here, and I'm surprised. The equity he has with TPTK plus the NFD is pretty strong, and even with the ace blocker a majority percentage of @Windwalker 's range is still going to be Ax hands vs. overpairs. And even the overpairs are put in a terrible spot - particularly 10s and to a degree JJ. It would have gotten folds from many on here - per the below seemed like more than half the commenters would have folded.

I think the difference here is that hero has been so active and winning that I question trying to make such a player fold when his range skews so heavy toward overpairs here. To me, it just comes down to active players on hot streaks don't make hero laydowns and these players are bad bluff targets. And Chan is effectively turning his nine into a bluff here by shoving the turn. He has no expectation of being called by lesser value. (Is hero REALLY 3-betting 77 pre and ready to call it off here?)

That said, maybe we are overthinking how aware Chan is of our hero and may have him on a far wider range that we assume and TPTK with the turned flush draw holds up either by hero laydown or improvement often enough for Chan to go with this play.

 

[upNdown]

It would appear that Krish had a lot to lose, and may just protect his run-up in a game he was playing over his head/bankroll.

I’m going to assume Chan heard when Krish asked for $20k in chips from his account. So I’m not sure about that part. But

The icy-cold stare, where he couldn't shove until he could get the max value "I'm shoving while staring you straight in the eye" maneuver.

Yes! I’d be willing to be that move has won him more than a few pots over the years.

 

[eightyWon]

johnny fucking chan... I know that's not your middle name. I've been watching you since I was like... since I could masturbate. I mean, not that they're connected.

 

[NeutronHim]

I think the difference here is that hero has been so active and winning that I question trying to make such a player fold when his range skews so heavy toward overpairs here. To me, it just comes down to active players on hot streaks don't make hero laydowns and these players are bad bluff targets. And Chan is effectively turning his nine into a bluff here by shoving the turn. He has no expectation of being called by lesser value. (Is hero REALLY 3-betting 77 pre and ready to call it off here?)

That said, maybe we are overthinking how aware Chan is of our hero and may have him on a far wider range that we assume and TPTK with the turned flush draw holds up either by hero laydown or improvement often enough for Chan to go with this play.

This is really interesting and not something I've thought about a lot. I've seen players go on streaks and make (correct) laydowns, but they've mostly been kinda nitty. This is definitely something I'll need to consider, and really confuses the hand assuming JC is aware of this phenomenon -- maybe he's value betting thin vs a range that's capped?

This is a pretty light open that nobody mentioned in 4 pages. That's kind of impressive actually.

From Chan's perspective, the flop play makes sense. But then he's turning a nine into a bluff, or I suppose he could be playing protection. But I find either of those approaches confusing. Holding an ace himself I would think he would have to skew hero's range heavily toward TT-KK here which would make it really tough for me to bluff someone that's sun-running. Also most hero's non pair hands have only 3 outs except for what few hero would have that don't contain an ace. I would think Chan would try and keep those hands in.

That said, I suppose the case for Chan going all in on the turn is this.
1) Hero might lay down a better hand (though doubtful if a player is active and winning, players on such streaks don't often make hero folds)
2) Even if he lays down a worse hand, this pot is big and worth protecting from even 3-outers
3) He has pretty good odds even if called (14 outs against TT-KK)

But I think hero figured out how polarizing this bet is and made the call. Good job Krish!

In the era of solvers, everyone seems to have given up suited connectors in favor of suited ace-x (and while these were being opened anyways, suited broadways.) Binking a low straight doesn't really get you paid, because on low boards your opponent rarely ever has two pair +. They only really serve to bink low paired boards more often so you can have trips in those spots.

Don't think jc is playing protection here with possibly the single hand in the deck that needs the least protection. He's ahead of all the shitter hands Krish can have and behind all the overpairs. Against a player finding an appropriate amount of bluffs, he has the best slam dunk check call hand in the world (it doesn't care about giving another card; an overcard isn't that bad, and he has the nfd.)

JC is really saying "hey Krish you have no bluffs," and so he's structuring his value and bluffs accordingly. A9cc doesn't want to x/c vs a range of just overpairs+9ts maybe.

I might be biased because I recall a very similar spot -- I've been in a very similar spot with ato ott on a ten high board, but this time it paired ott (say t633 or something) in a SRP from early position (I'm in the big.) I x/r flop for value, barrel turn and get raised ott on a board where he can really have tt or an overpair while I have all the sets and a3s/34s/35s, so I rip it for 200bb on top of the 60bb turn raise. In retrospect I can't be doing this with all combos of ato, but the point stands -- against players who are nitty pre and stations post (with decently strong ranges,) you can't bet as thin for value and some of your thin value hands should just end up bluffing in polarized lines.

 

[warma]

There's a good number of people in the comments questioning Chan's shove here, and I'm surprised. The equity he has with TPTK plus the NFD is pretty strong, and even with the ace blocker a majority percentage of @Windwalker 's range is still going to be Ax hands vs. overpairs. And even the overpairs are put in a terrible spot - particularly 10s and to a degree JJ. It would have gotten folds from many on here - per the below seemed like more than half the commenters would have folded.

(nothing wrong with that at all by the way, just pointing out that the jam would have gotten folds from many players in this situation.)

Even if called still has around 30% equity or so.

Has to be tough, being JC. In this case, calling would have left Krish with some $5- so still well up. And the move by JC as a pro - would he scare people? Would they call to say they called? Then there’s the whole Rounders motivation. Yikes. There are some real dynamics here that don’t exist for most players, well beyond GTO. Can he exploit them? Would be curious what it’s done to his game.

 

[JustinInMN]

maybe he's value betting thin vs a range that's capped?

Don't think jc is playing protection here with possibly the single hand in the deck that needs the least protection. He's ahead of all the shitter hands Krish can have and behind all the overpairs. Against a player finding an appropriate amount of bluffs, he has the best slam dunk check call hand in the world (it doesn't care about giving another card; an overcard isn't that bad, and he has the nfd.)

JC is really saying "hey Krish you have no bluffs," and so he's structuring his value and bluffs accordingly. A9cc doesn't want to x/c vs a range of just overpairs+9ts maybe.

This is an interesting thought that I had not considered in these terms. But I can see it now, with no broadway cards on board, how many sets for which can JC really give our hero credit? I think much like from Krish's view of Chan, maybe it's just 99. I could see that being "good enough" for Chan to justify this.

The big difference is though Krish's range is less polarized as the 3 better, he can have all those overpairs we might call "middle strength" at this point in the hand. Chan really can't have a lot of "middle strength" here. A9 might be the only hand that makes sense for the middle, he's either pretty nutted or he's bluffing.

 

[buzzmonkey]

Epilogue:
Krish reached in his pocket, pulled out an orange, rolled it across the table and said, "Maybe you'll be lucky next time, old man."

 

[rjdev7]

And for defeating JC you get his avatar from my Rounders topper design:

Let me know when you face off against KGB or Knish.

 

[upNdown]

And for defeating JC you get his avatar from my Rounders topper design:

View attachment 1180268
Let me know when you face off against KGB or Knish.

I saw one of those toppers recently in a picture on the Poker Home Game Society group on facebook!

 

[NeutronHim]

This is an interesting thought that I had not considered in these terms. But I can see it now, with no broadway cards on board, how many sets for which can JC really give our hero credit? I think much like from Krish's view of Chan, maybe it's just 99. I could see that being "good enough" for Chan to justify this.

The big difference is though Krish's range is less polarized as the 3 better, he can have all those overpairs we might call "middle strength" at this point in the hand. Chan really can't have a lot of "middle strength" here. A9 might be the only hand that makes sense for the middle, he's either pretty nutted or he's bluffing.

I think he has all of the sets. When he calls the three bet, he isn't really repping jj qq tt, he's repping a lot of 55 (maybe not 22 idk) type hands that bluff some runouts, bink sets sometimes, and x/f the draw heavy runouts.

 

[bergs]

I’m assuming JC knows at least peripherally who Krish is - wondering if that’s accurate or not and how it affects how he plays you in this hand, @Windwalker

 

[utgtrash]

Wait. You do killer analysis, but you don’t know who Johnny Chan is? You must be under the age of 25, right?

i mean sure his prime was a long time ago, but who hasn't at least seen Rounders????

 

[TricycleClub]

Love the play by play Krish, nice work sir!
And for those who don’t know, THIS IS JOHNNY F!?$&ING CHAN!