A hand against Johnny C in $25/$50 NLHE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Windwalker
- Start date
I’m still taking my morning dump. No coffee yet, so I can relate.
jpietrella
4 of a Kind
I read this message from the shitter.
Rakrul
Straight
If that's your standard bet in a 3-bet pot vs MP it seems like a leak (?) as your 3-bet range contains a lot more than overpairs. Does anyone know what the solver says?
Curious to what the solver says as well.
Three bet pre on a strong hand on a pretty safe flop seems like a standard c-bet when checked to, no?
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Personally, I feel better about taking this line with the less vulnerable hands in my range as hero. Surely hero has KK and AA in his range here, I think those are better candidates for giving free cards to protect the unpaired portion of hero's range as well. (I assume hero probably has some 3-bets preflop with AK and AQ as well.) That said 100% c-bet on this sort of dry flop isn't a bad strategy either.
In this situation, I think it's safe to say that whatever portion of Chan's range that hero is "ahead" of is likely two overcards to the jacks. (AK, AQ, KQ), hero may be ahead of TT, 88 as well, but that's a much smaller portion of Chan's range than the two overcard pair draws. It's really going to be hard for me to give Chan credit for QQ+ without 4-betting pre, but it's a good deception if he has it. I think I am going to play for stacks here on the flop given we are 40BB deep only. So I would bet 1/2-2/3 pot here as others have said, and I am planning to shove on a check raise. We might get shown 99. That's the breaks. Most of the time, I think we can expect to be good here.
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I like a $800 bet to fold out some equity (AQs etc) but also keep your range wide as you could be perceived to do this with your own A high. JC is a fairly tight player but even he is likely getting more money into the pot pre with holdings that have JJ beat. Mayyybe QQ he plays like this.
Bet 800, call most check raises and we can bomb blank turns and check back a few scary ones to induce river bluffs or get to cheap showdown.
Bet 800, call most check raises and we can bomb blank turns and check back a few scary ones to induce river bluffs or get to cheap showdown.
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2/3 is slightly large for most hands (unless something like two overs + NFD where you want to push equity but you are likely behind with A high). Cash games are catching up to tournament strategy in terms of incorporating more down betting.
Chippy McChiperson
4 of a Kind
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Flop is
Villain checks.
Hero?
Of course, there is always the possibility that he has (somehow) flopped the nut straight and has the discipline to wait hero out.
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I think the solver says always fold jacks.
Chippy McChiperson
4 of a Kind
I don't mind a downbet here, I'd make it like $650.Continuing…
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has
in the CO.
V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
Hero?
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
If going simple strat route with just one flop size, it’s bone dry so 1/3ish pot is good size and JJ is as clear of a cbet hand as it gets.
If going two flop sizings, I’m not studied so don’t know if this is a good board to split size, but if so, I’d guess JJ likes the bigger sizing to get rid of more high card floats.
If going two flop sizings, I’m not studied so don’t know if this is a good board to split size, but if so, I’d guess JJ likes the bigger sizing to get rid of more high card floats.
This is why I'd like to go bigger here. About as clean a flop as you can get for Jacks but too many cards than can come on the next two streets that hero won't like.
A 1/3 pot (or less) bet keeps the Ax hands in there but this isn't the hand to have to try to milk those AK, AQ, AJ, A10 combos. I'm happy to take this down now with a larger bet.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Agreed, while we expect hero to be ahead most of the time here, I think there is very little value to expect from villain when he is behind. A 3-bet pot pre is big enough where it's okay to shift to a strategy of protection versus trying to get max value. "Max value" isn't much more than what's already in the middle if villain is behind.
MrCatPants
Full House
Bet about 1/3 pot (750/800). Bet sizes should be consistent with your whole range here.
MrCatPants
Full House
To comment on some of the other dialogue here, the goal is not to win hands but to win money. Ax/KQ type of hands only have 6 turn improvement cards. Underpairs only have 2. So we actually don't want a fold, we want them to put more money in when we are an equity favorite. Going smaller is scarier, but a better EV play.
OP
OP
Continuing…
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has in the CO.
V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has
in the CO.V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
ekricket
Royal Flush
This is one of the blurry lines that separates a “break even” player from a “profit” player I think. You have to be willing to accept that scary feeling and a lot of people can’t.
Frogzilla
4 of a Kind
Turn sizing should be geo2 or whatever the nerds call it to get all in on river
4k with 9k behind. There’s probably an equation somewhere but I just try a couple
2k into 4k. 7k into 8k (too big river)
2500 into 4k, 6500 into 9k (feels right - 2500 it is)
That size and board has a respectable IP barrel range and JJ is definitely in it.
bet 2500
4k with 9k behind. There’s probably an equation somewhere but I just try a couple
2k into 4k. 7k into 8k (too big river)
2500 into 4k, 6500 into 9k (feels right - 2500 it is)
That size and board has a respectable IP barrel range and JJ is definitely in it.
bet 2500
MrCatPants
Full House
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I never really understood the whole down betting strat on the flop for cash. I think it prices in 2 overs and invites runner runner thinking. Maybe in the long run that’s what generates more value but in my mind by not betting the flop harder if any over hits on the turn and V leads out its puts Hero to a tough decision.
Looking at the turn here if V was floating with any marginal/aspirational holdings the 8c makes 2 pair with 89, set with 88, or one of several possible straight or flush or combo draws now. Any strength shown by V now will put Hero in a tough spot, and I personally hate having to make tough decisions (I’m usually wrong).
Looking at the turn here if V was floating with any marginal/aspirational holdings the 8c makes 2 pair with 89, set with 88, or one of several possible straight or flush or combo draws now. Any strength shown by V now will put Hero in a tough spot, and I personally hate having to make tough decisions (I’m usually wrong).
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Agreed, but at the same time, if villain doesn't have a hand in which he will put any additional money in as a dog, and dry overcards may well be such a hand, then there's no point in trying to size it to get calls. May as well just bet whatever will win and be glad to take down a pot that was 3-bet pre. Or at the very least, bet whatever is big enough to constitute a pot-odds mistake by the villain.
We like that turn card, so just continue and bet half pot size.Continuing…
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has
V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
If V responds with a raise we should go into the tank
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
Hmmm, villain acting slowly could be a tell of strength, or not. Also I would still think the 8 is usually safe, but will admit 88 is one of the hands I would have had in villain's preflop range that has now improved to a set. And 88 is among the hands I might expect villain to float if he wants to try and catch hero bluffing a flop-miss. Even though I think 88 does not represent much of villain's range here, I would much rather have seen a smaller card, especially a 5 or 2 to pair the board to be honest.
All of that said, I think betting again is pretty safe, I would think around 2000 is right for the pot. If we get called again, I'm probably going to check the river behind Chan. These bets being for protection more than value, I just don't see getting 3 calls from weaker too often here. If we get check-raised I think we have to plan to call.
I could see a good argument to check and try and induce a bluff here. I feel much better about this line with one-card to come having seen a "safe turn" than with two-unknown-cards to come. But you are probably setting yourself up to call it off on bad rivers given you have underrepped your hand on the turn.
It's at least 10 cards I'm worried about. Any other queen, king, or ace provided the thinking is that villain has two of those that they're floating with post flop. Jack's are strong but vulnerable. Just seems like playing with fire to let villain realize their equity on future streets by betting small. This is a situation where hero can lose a big pot on the river or win a small to modest one before that.
Now if the river brings in a set for hero and villain leads out, now things can get spicy...
Well, check raise isn't out of his play, 
, 
, 
, 
all check raise here. overs and a flush draw may call if its less than a pot size bet. I'd likely check, see what comes out on the river
, , , all check raise here. overs and a flush draw may call if its less than a pot size bet. I'd likely check, see what comes out on the river
bergs
Royal Flush
I like Froggy’s thinking. $2400-2800 and if the river is clean setup a jam. We didn’t come to the Bicycle to play 1/2 with those silly, silly racks of $1 chips. We came here to bust Johnny Mother Fucking Chan.
PS I hope we’re not getting Seideled here.
PS I hope we’re not getting Seideled here.
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