What hands should be calling a blind all-in? (1 Viewer)

[dmoney]

This scenario arises from a recent $1/3 session at Rivers Pittsburgh where I was $800 deep. The main villain had just lost a hand and was tired of playing, so for his final hand he went all in blind in the first-to-act (UTG) position for $161. It folded around to me in the small blind with . I tanked for a while and eventually folded.

With the big blind covering behind me and still to act, what hands should call? What hands jam? Are there hands that call, then fold?

Spoiler

the big blind woke up with aces and won the pot anyway.

 

[dmoney]

In-game, I decided that I would only jam and never just call and leave myself open to a re-jam from the big bling still to act.

I'd jam any pocket pair, all aces, K5+, and maybe Q9+?

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'd call here if I was feeling gambley and last to act; TJo is around the cutoff for hands I'd expect to be ahead of a blind shove.

However, the BB being behind would likely nudge me to a fold.

That said, I would still call pretty light here, expecting the BB to fold most of the time and any hand with 2 big cards to be a decent favorite on average.

Whether I'd call and then fold to the BB's shove depends on the hand and what I know of the BB, but I'm probably folding anything but aces or kings in most cases. A third player choosing to raise again there is a massive signal of strength as long as the person isn't a maniac.

Even with a maniac, I'm still not going to want to gamble that much.

 

[dmoney]

This scenario arises from a recent $1/3 session at Rivers Pittsburgh where I was $800 deep. The main villain had just lost a hand and was tired of playing, so for his final hand he went all in blind in the first-to-act (UTG) position for $161. It folded around to me in the small blind with . I tanked for a while and eventually folded.

With the big blind covering behind me and still to act, what hands should call? What hands jam? Are there hands that call, then fold?

Spoiler: spoiler

the big blind woke up with aces and won the pot anyway.

@boltonguy do you have any solver insights?

 

[Jimulacrum]

In-game, I decided that I would only jam and never just call and leave myself open to a re-jam from the big bling still to act.

I'd jam any pocket pair, all aces, K5+, and maybe Q9+?

I think this approach is a mistake because you end up always losing the maximum to the BB when you run into a big hand, no way to escape.

The call alone should be enough to chase the BB off of a lot of marginal hands, if he has any sense, and it costs dramatically less and leaves you room to escape with the remaining $640 when BB wakes up with something.

 

[dmoney]

I think this approach is a mistake because you end up always losing the maximum to the BB when you run into a big hand, no way to escape.

Hopefully you read the spoiler lol.

Immortal words, in the style of a motivational poster:

 

[upNdown]

It's funny, I'm not usually a big gambler when it comes to poker, but in situations like this, I can't resist. I can't find an exact chart, but I'm guessing that J10o is somewhere around the top 30% of starting hands. Absent reads on the BB, I'm probably flatting that every time.

 

[Taghkanic]

This scenario arises from a recent $1/3 session at Rivers Pittsburgh where I was $800 deep. The main villain had just lost a hand and was tired of playing, so for his final hand he went all in blind in the first-to-act (UTG) position for $161. It folded around to me in the small blind with . I tanked for a while and eventually folded.

With the big blind covering behind me and still to act, what hands should call? What hands jam? Are there hands that call, then fold?

Spoiler: spoiler

the big blind woke up with aces and won the pot anyway.

I have had lots of success with TJs cracking better hands, let alone a blind shove… (Was this TJo?)

In theory, say you are reasonably sure of closing the action (and here, you only have to get the big blind to fold)… It ought to be profitable to call with the top 49% of hands, no?

I’d put JTo within the top third of hands and JTs in the top 10%.

Think you gotta call here. It feels gambly but against a range that includes the whole deck, long-term you print $$$.

 

[Taghkanic]

(Against the whole deck, minus your one combo of JTo, you’re something like 55% to win. If the BB wakes up with an overpair, which is exceedingly rare, you still have a roughly 20% shot.)

 

[upNdown]

But to answer your question, that hand is probably the bottom of my range here. I’d think in this exact position I’m calling with any pair, any A, any K, Qs down to 8, J10 and maybe J9? Just my gut - no math.

 

[l33tf0b]

Q7+ is EV vs blind hand

 

[doctorchips]

Q7+ is EV vs blind hand

even with BB behind to act?

 

[l33tf0b]

even with BB behind to act?

I didn’t catch that part but I can’t speak to actions behind — I’d rather shove than call if action behind. If heads up vs blind hand then it’s a call.

 

[Legend5555]

Against a range of 100% of hands, here is what is better than 50% against that range

98s+
T9o+
T8s+
J8o+
J7s+
Q6o+
Q3s+
Any K
Any A
Any pair

 

[bmacpoker]

Maybe I'm just not a huge gambler at heart, but I'm probably not taking this on unless I was willing to go in pre-flop anyway. That is AA, KK, QA, AK. Too many live cards out there, I don't want to punt off a fifth of my stack to Q2o if I don't hit the JT. Or if I get jammed on by one of the blinds.

Edit: and it doesn't change a ton if I'm last to act... maybe middling pocket pairs and better.

 

[LeLe]

With BB behind me and UTG gambling about 50+ blinds,

I jamming any 6 pairs+, QJs+, ATo+ and folding almost everything else.

I also calling with premium hands, inducing a jam/call from BB.

That is if you believe the guy really is calling all in blind (like he mentioned it before the cards is dealt) very often as seem on stream. People peek at their holding and say they calling all in blind.

You have to remember people on the table are lying basterds that only thinking to take all your money

 

[ngmcs8203]

It's funny, I'm not usually a big gambler when it comes to poker, but in situations like this, I can't resist. I can't find an exact chart, but I'm guessing that J10o is somewhere around the top 30% of starting hands. Absent reads on the BB, I'm probably flatting that every time.

You’re about 53% a favorite against ATC

NM i wasn’t the first person to run that.

 

[JustinInMN]

In-game, I decided that I would only jam and never just call and leave myself open to a re-jam from the big bling still to act.

I'd jam any pocket pair, all aces, K5+, and maybe Q9+?

This feels like roughly 40% of starting hands to me.

Q7+ is EV vs blind hand

This is the classic 50% line of starting hands. But with players yet to act, I don't think the calculation can be that simple. From the cutoff there are 3 players yet to act and they would be getting 2-1 pot odds if hero calls. And I do think all roads point to the best way to exploit the blind all in is to isolate. Doing that effectively means players left to act are only getting 2-1 on villains effective stack and even money on the amount over that.

So I think we have to factor in how as hero, our actions influences those left to act.

If we were last to act, I think this math is right, but I think we need to assume to be somewhat tighter because of the intervening players and because I think we don't want to have a calling range here. If we are playing this pot based on knowing utg is in the dark, we should be playing to isolate.

If the pot is unraised here, I probably have something like a 20% raise and an additional 20% calling frequency. If feels to me like I would probably adjust to no calling range by moving half the hands to raises and half to folds. So shoving the top 30% and folding the rest "feels" right to me here.

Against a range of 100% of hands, here is what is better than 50% against that range

98s+
T9o+
T8s+
J8o+
J7s+
Q6o+
Q3s+
Any K
Any A
Any pair

It's funny, I'm not usually a big gambler when it comes to poker, but in situations like this, I can't resist. I can't find an exact chart, but I'm guessing that J10o is somewhere around the top 30% of starting hands. Absent reads on the BB, I'm probably flatting that every time.

I'm not sure I would put JTo that high on the list. My instinct is that's a fold, but @Legend5555 's list makes me reconsider given it's down to J8o for j-hi holdings.

Edit: and it doesn't change a ton if I'm last to act... maybe middling pocket pairs and better.

I think the the fact hero is not last changes everything. If hero is last, then I think @Legend5555 's list is the clean and simple answer. I think we have to tighten up somewhat because of the other players and we need to play a shove-fold strategy because of the other players.

But I guess if I am thinking top 30% of hands on my mind without looking it up, I would think all pairs, any suited Broadways, suited connectors 98 and up, suited one gaps j-9 and up, A9s, A8s, AJo+, KQ, KJ, QJ.

I would think JTo is on the outside and I would fold. But maybe it's closer than I think.

All of that being said, in the grand scheme of poker, this situation is so infrequent, it's probably not that costly in the long run to have an imperfect answer, if it's way too tight or way too loose.

 

[Legend5555]

This feels like roughly 40% of starting hands to me.


This is the classic 50% line of starting hands. But with players yet to act, I don't think the calculation can be that simple. From the cutoff there are 3 players yet to act and they would be getting 2-1 pot odds if hero calls. And I do think all roads point to the best way to exploit the blind all in is to isolate. Doing that effectively means players left to act are only getting 2-1 on villains effective stack and even money on the amount over that.

So I think we have to factor in how as hero, our actions influences those left to act.

If we were last to act, I think this math is right, but I think we need to assume to be somewhat tighter becose of the intervening players and because I think we don't want to have a calling range here. If we are playing this pot based on knowing utg is in the dark, we should be playing to isolate.

If the pot is unraised here, I probably have something like a 20% raise and an additional 20% calling frequency. If feels to me like it would probably adjust to no calling range by moving half the hands to raises and half to folds. So shoving the top 30% and folding the rest "feels" right to me here.




I'm not sure I would put JTo that high on the list. My instinct is that's a fold, but @Legend5555 's list makes me reconsider given it's down to J8o for j-hi holdings.



I think the the fact hero is not last changes everything. If hero is last, then I think @Legend5555 's list is the clean and simple answer. I think we have to tighten up somewhat because of the other players and we need to play a shove-fold strategy because of the other players.

But I guess if I am thinking top 30% of hands on my mind without looking it up, I would think all pairs, any suited Broadways, suited connectors 98 and up, suited one gaps j-9 and up, A9s, A8s, AJo+, KQ, KJ, QJ.

I would think JTo is on the outside and I would fold. But maybe it's closer than I think.

All of that being said, in the grand scheme of poker, this situation is so infrequent, it's probably not that costly in the long run to have an imperfect answer, if it's way to tight or way too loose.

Yeah, my list obviously assumes you have no other players to worry about. And I did crunch it against a blind 100% range. Those cutoff hands between tiers are all in the 50-51% range. So it's up to you how much want to gamble. 22 btw is only like 50.5%. 44 goes up to like 54%.

 

[JustinInMN]

Yeah, my list obviously assumes you have no other players to worry about. And I did crunch it against a blind 100% range. Those cutoff hands between tiers are all in the 50-51% range. So it's up to you how much want to gamble. 22 btw is only like 50.5%. 44 goes up to like 54%.

Good to know. So I probably should cut pairs off to 55 or 66+ if I think 30% is the line

 

[Legend5555]

If you want to get to 60% vs the range, then it's:

A8o+
A5s+
KTo+
K9s+
QTs+
55+

You have to cut A LOT of hands out to get to 60/40.

And for reference, to get to 69/31+, only 88-AA.

 

[JustinInMN]

If you want to get to 60% vs the range, then it's:

A8o+
A5s+
KTo+
K9s+
QTs+
55+

You have to cut A LOT of hands out to get to 60/40.

And for reference, to get to 69/31+, only 88-AA.

Ah, I think I have a different meaning, I want to play 30% of my holdings as a shoving frequency, not that I need to be at a 70/30 advantage against an ATC range.

 

[Legend5555]

If you want to get to 60% vs the range, then it's:

A8o+
A5s+
KTo+
K9s+
QTs+
55+

You have to cut A LOT of hands out to get to 60/40.

And for reference, to get to 69/31+, only 88-AA.

The 60% range is 17.2% of hands. So we do a simple calculation to figure out the probability based on stack size.

We fold 82.8% of the time. In all those cases we lose 1bb (assuming we are in the BB). Or -.828bb in EV.

Our calling range actually has 65.1% overall equity against the 100% shoving range. These are all the hands that have 60%+ of equity individually.

So 17.2% of the time with a stack size of X:

We win X*.651
And lose X*.349

.172*(X*.651 - X*.349) - .828 =

.052X - .828 = 0

X=15.9

So at a stack size of 16bb or greater, we are printing by calling with this range against a 100% jam range. At 100bb we make a little more than 4bb on average.

 

[Legend5555]

With the original, better than 50% range:

We call 47.5%
Fold 52.5%
And have 58.4% equity when we call.

Using the same math...

.475(.584*X - .416*X) - .525

.08*X - .525 = 0

X = 6.56

So we call with the "better than 50%" when stack size is 6.56 or more. At 100bb we make 7.475bb.

Hopefully now you can see why in a tournament with an ante you can call pretty wide even with the worst of it at small stack sizes. And why it is so profitable to shove so often when short stacked if people are calling tighter than this.

 

[Frogzilla]

closing action it’s easier. Not closing action you have to tighten up and value 3-way equity also (low pairs bad three way). Toss JTo I think. 66 pair is probably a tough spot but 77+ ship it, 22-55 fold

 

[NoNamePokerGuy]

I think this approach is a mistake because you end up always losing the maximum to the BB when you run into a big hand, no way to escape.

The call alone should be enough to chase the BB off of a lot of marginal hands, if he has any sense, and it costs dramatically less and leaves you room to escape with the remaining $640 when BB wakes up with something.

If I know that is your strategy, doesn't that leave me (as the person closing the action) just jamming a huge percentage of my hands and some times you have me dominated, but otherwise I get 50/50 on 3x my money? That seems like it would be seriously EV+ as the range you'd want to call a shove with probably is very slim.

On second thought, I didn't realize we were so deep, I think it's not as good as I thought. If we're 500$ deep rather than 800$ I think it's a better play.

 

[Jimulacrum]

If I know that is your strategy, doesn't that leave me (as the person closing the action) just jamming a huge percentage of my hands and some times you have me dominated, but otherwise I get 50/50 on 3x my money? That seems like it would be seriously EV+ as the range you'd want to call a shove with probably is very slim.

On second thought, I didn't realize we were so deep, I think it's not as good as I thought. If we're 500$ deep rather than 800$ I think it's a better play.

Yes, if you know this is my strategy, it's exploitable (with regard to when it's shorter-stacked; I agree that stack depth makes it a safer play in OP's case).

It's a little unrealistic that you'd ever know this, though, except by me telling you (you're welcome). Of course I could always be lying (sorry not sorry) or could choose to adjust my strategy when I notice that you shove over me 100% of the time.

Otherwise I don't think it's necessary to play in a balanced way in such an uncommon spot.

 

[4SUMERZ]

I love playing J-10, but it will depend when it's my turn to act with an all in ahead of me. I would have folded seeing that there was someone acting behind me.
Most cases, even with someone on tilt and going all in early, that is when they are bluffing with so so cards.
I would call in this situation with an A-K, A-Q, A-J A-10 or a pair 10 or higher, but fold most any other 2 cards if someone is acting after me.

 

[NoNamePokerGuy]

Yes, if you know this is my strategy, it's exploitable (with regard to when it's shorter-stacked; I agree that stack depth makes it a safer play in OP's case).

It's a little unrealistic that you'd ever know this, though, except by me telling you (you're welcome). Of course I could always be lying (sorry not sorry) or could choose to adjust my strategy when I notice that you shove over me 100% of the time.

Otherwise I don't think it's necessary to play in a balanced way in such an uncommon spot.

I think you'd be fine in a casino with the strategy, in a weekly home game with the same players it might be exploitable over time.

 

[chamber2skipped]

That hand is probably about the cutoff to call. Might be better to raise and push the BB off of moderate hands. If he raises then you fold obviously.