Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
You're close to a coinflip. So if you're getting more than 1:1 pot odds it's profitable long-term
Play AK with me (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter CraigT78
- Start date
You're close to a coinflip. So if you're getting more than 1:1 pot odds it's profitable long-term
ekricket
Royal Flush
I’ll remember that every time I lose with it.
FDLmold
Royal Flush
This ignores that I know what my opponent's cards are. If I call, then the flop comes something like K83 rainbow, I'm getting all in way better than 50%. And if the flop is J87, I can fold very nicely. I'm closing the action, so right now I call and see a flop. Everything else is -EV compared to that line. Plus I have other opponents staying in. I promise you at least one of my aces and kings is gone.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Gotta disagree. You are assuming that your opponent will just pay you off on a K83 rainbow flop
Not to mention, the limpers could hold 88 or 33
You also can't assume the callers have an Ace or King, I see plenty of players at these limits play all sorts of junk hands to raises, because they just "have to see the flop", ......as long as it's not an all-in bet
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
And don't get me wrong, I don't hate a call on the button here with perfect info against one opponent, I just prefer a shove to isolate with dead money in there
Just a question. But we can't imagine that UTG or really even the BB is holding 33 here?? Or even 88 for that matter, right?? I mean, BB saw SB cards too.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
If I have perfect info on my opponents hand I can call with any 2 cards
OP
OP
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
I would imagine if the BB or UTG had hands strong enough to call a $360 shove they would be reraising, rather than calling
But, I've been wrong before
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
Query: do you fell obligated to share this information with the table, or at least let the SB/dealer know you saw his cards?
Also, there is a good chance SB already forgot he has 99.
Apparently, I was in Pittsburgh too.
/humblebrag
OP
OP
In a casino - not a chance. Home game, 100% I will tell player he is sloppy. But in a casino, my morals/ethics go out the window.
Agreed
how does player 4 have better odds than player 3? Position?
It’s interesting the perspective of the pot odds. As an over all sum of the hand, you put in 360 to win 456. But at the current time of action you would put in 345 (15 raise already in pot) to win 471, which increases your pot odds.
The over all sum is pretty much getting even money with the percentage to win - with an advantageous factor that sb has a chance to fold and assuming BB and UTG will fold.
The over all sum is pretty much getting even money with the percentage to win - with an advantageous factor that sb has a chance to fold and assuming BB and UTG will fold.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Or call with weaker hands, increasing the size of the pot to be won. Essentially it's hard for us to be dominated in this spot in most instances, so even if we get called by 99, TT and JJ we still just need to hit 1 of our cards to win
Definitely true. Personally, I wouldn’t like to race with a buy in amount. Not that your philosophy is wrong. I would wait for better returns or rather have 99. But, realistically wouldn’t call a 4 bet all in if I was sb.
Best case, everyone calls - bb has A2 and utg has 99
Best case, everyone calls - bb has A2 and utg has 99
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
Let's assume for the moment that Hero shoves and SB calls, folding out the field. $96 in dead money less $6 in rake leaves $90 plus $360 + $360. $810 in the pot.
AKo vs 99 is a 55.3% / 44.7% "flip" (could be 54.9% to 55.7% depending on how many shared suits are in play). 44.7% X $810 = $362. Hero is risking $345 to call, but he made the original raise with open eyes. +$2 or +$17 ev is a profit, but it is a rather trivial win. Not sure I call it "printing money".
I assumed away the risks and rewards involved with the rest of the field. This is four way action, so two more villains are in the mix. BB may have the same general information Hero has about SB's pocket nines. He likely doesn't know that Hero knows. UTG is also an issue - college grinder sitting down with $600? Let's just say he likely isn't playing T2 because Doyle won twice with it.
Hero should look for a more profitable line than an isolation jam. Huge variance, minimal profitability. Plus the other villains could prove to be troublesome. I particularly worry someone else will call a jam with AK as well - not likely but oh my it would SUCK! I think I said this a few days ago. Heads you win, tails we split the pot is a terrible thing.
So lets say Hero flats. The pot is $180. The SPR is a bit less than two. Hero is playing fit/fold now - miss the flop and the hand is over. Hero also has a second target. Maybe BB thinks he can play any two cards vs the pocket nines. Makes him especially at risk holding a weaker ace or king.
I must admit UTG bothers me still. I would rate UTG as assumed to be competent till proven otherwise. I have to wonder what type of hand he might play this way - limp UTG then call down a stiff 3-bet not knowing the original raiser isn't jamming.
I call it this way: flat > jam ~=fold
DrStrange
AKo vs 99 is a 55.3% / 44.7% "flip" (could be 54.9% to 55.7% depending on how many shared suits are in play). 44.7% X $810 = $362. Hero is risking $345 to call, but he made the original raise with open eyes. +$2 or +$17 ev is a profit, but it is a rather trivial win. Not sure I call it "printing money".
I assumed away the risks and rewards involved with the rest of the field. This is four way action, so two more villains are in the mix. BB may have the same general information Hero has about SB's pocket nines. He likely doesn't know that Hero knows. UTG is also an issue - college grinder sitting down with $600? Let's just say he likely isn't playing T2 because Doyle won twice with it.
Hero should look for a more profitable line than an isolation jam. Huge variance, minimal profitability. Plus the other villains could prove to be troublesome. I particularly worry someone else will call a jam with AK as well - not likely but oh my it would SUCK! I think I said this a few days ago. Heads you win, tails we split the pot is a terrible thing.
So lets say Hero flats. The pot is $180. The SPR is a bit less than two. Hero is playing fit/fold now - miss the flop and the hand is over. Hero also has a second target. Maybe BB thinks he can play any two cards vs the pocket nines. Makes him especially at risk holding a weaker ace or king.
I must admit UTG bothers me still. I would rate UTG as assumed to be competent till proven otherwise. I have to wonder what type of hand he might play this way - limp UTG then call down a stiff 3-bet not knowing the original raiser isn't jamming.
I call it this way: flat > jam ~=fold
DrStrange
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
I assume everyone sucks at poker until they prove otherwise
Even for a drunkard, stacking off with 99 against a large 4-bet shove from the original raiser is definitely not a given (what's 99 expecting? being crushed or race?). Also, it's way more likely the weak limp/callers will fold as well. That equity should play a role, and I call it significant role, in the equity calculation. In case it folds around, it's pure pot profit. If called by SB only, +$17 EV. If called by one or two of the others, it might not be bad also since we dominate all Ax and Kx and are racing against other pairs. Love the situation personally. Flatting brings us -$30 about 60% of the time when we miss. The other 40%, we might not get paid a certain amount of time and some other amount we might be behind a set or two pairs. We'll only get paid if 99 decides to shove on a A or K high board, or check calls that board. Don't love it.
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
Lol that this SB is even considering what Hero would 4-bet with.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
The SB made a reraise of 3x the button raise, he must've considered something
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
I cannot assume any of the opponents are brain dead, even if that's what they want me to assume.
WedgeRock
Royal Flush
I'm not disagreeing with the plan, but I am also not giving this guy too much credit for being a thinking player.
I'm not giving him much credit for it also, that's why I'm saying "some" folding instead of "a lot" of folding.
What I cannot do is to simply ignore any fold equity in the analysis.
OP
OP
Please elaborate
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
There seem to be some folks that just assume the drunk with 99 is 100% calling a shove, Paulo (and myself) believe we have fold equity here (we may win what's in the pot without showdown) with a shove
OP
OP
Same assumption from me. In the short experience at the table my analysis is that he is the most skilled at the table - short his number of hands played. Granted 30 minutes is not enough time, it's possible he's just had a nice run of cards. His showdown hands have all been solid playable hands.
When you shove into Villains 3-bet, the is some likelihood it will fold around, even knowing Villain has 99. What's the frequency of that fold, not sure but it is not zero. And if it's not zero, that equity of Hero scooping up a uncontested pot should be taken into account. I would argue that it is more likely than not a thinking player will fold 99 there. Drunkard? Not as likely but not a zero chance.
And again, even if he is always calling (and others folding) we still have a +$17EV. Passing on a 5% EV is not very wise imo.
Enough with bashing drunk poker players ok? You guys are starting to hurt my feelings.
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