Play AK with me (1 Viewer)

[CraigT78]

So I'm playing $1/$3 at the Rivers in Pittsburgh. I've been at the table about 30 minutes and look down at AKo in the button. 3 players limp to me. My stack is $360, and my table image in that 30 min is probably TAG as I've won 2 hands with no showdown.

Players: SB is drunk aggressive, splashy. $400 (he has 9/9 - shows cards frequently)
BB appears skilled, but plays a lot of hands. Knows when to get away, but has made hero calls. $900

UTG - just sat down, seems to be college kid grinder type. Chips in random piles, looks like $600

Last two are an old guy calling station with $175 and a guy with his wife behind him. $200.

It's my action.

 

[mipevi]

Raise to $30.

 

[Kain8]

Raise to $30.

This.

 

[Frogzilla]

To be clear, we know he has 99 already from a sloppy peek?

Between this guy and the station, most of the money is to be made post flop. We don’t need to isolate. I make it $15

 

[CraigT78]

To be clear, we know he has 99 already from a sloppy peek?

Between this guy and the station, most of the money is to be made post flop. We don’t need to isolate. I make it $15

Yes. Sloppy like picked them up and held away from face sloppy. Pretty sure BB saw as well.

 

[Coyote]

AK?

 

[Jonesey07]

Raise to 15-20.

 

[DarPodo]

Players: SB is drunk aggressive, splashy.

I was in Pittsburgh?!

Raise to $22

 

[Anthony Martino]

I like a raise to 20-25, erring on the higher side. Being on the button here is great too, because it looks like we may just be taking advantage of our position and the limpers.

Now, if you think one of the blinds is likely to raise themselves, you could limp with the intention of reraising

 

[ChaosRock]

$25

 

[DrStrange]

Hero knows he has to hit the flop because he has seen SB's cards. SB is drunk, aggressive and likely doesn't give a damn about Hero's table image.

I am not raising, never ever here. What is Hero planning to do if he gets a stiff 3-bet from SB? Is the plan to fold unimproved on the flop? For that matter, what is Hero's plan on the majority of the flops where he misses? So what would be the purpose of a pre-flop raise?

Hero should limp, expecting SB to raise it up. Let's see a flop if it is cheap enough. Hero can fold preflop to enough action, should that happen.

I suggest playing pure fit/fold vs pocket nines. Yes, yes Hero might be able to blow SB off the best hand. Well maybe he can, but why blow the stack with a fancy play. Let's just make the simple. See a less expensive flop, give up unimproved, go to war with top pair. Tread carefully with multi-way action.

it is OK to get out played by a third villain. It is not OK to stack off to pocket nines preflop. It is not OK to lose your stack trying a fancy play vs a drunk.

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Hero knows he has to hit the flop because he has seen SB's cards.

Actually, Hero does not need to hit the flop. The flop only needs to look threatening enough to 99 that Hero can bet him off the pot. Also importantly, Hero will be able to avoid all unfavorable situations post-flop and tailor his bet sizes for maximum value. Having perfect information is an enormous benefit that dwarfs the slight preflop advantage 99 has over AKo.

Raise to $30 sounds good.

 

[CraigT78]

Hero makes it $15.
SB raises to $45.
BB shuffles his chips and thinks for a minute and calls.
UTG looks at BB for a minute and also calls.
Calling station mumbles and folds.
Guy with hot wife folds.

Action is on hero. $156(ish) in pot.

 

[Cyo]

Shove if you are properly rolled.

Pre raise was too small. Should have been 25-30.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Call.

 

[Chip Wanter]

Hero knows he has to hit the flop because he has seen SB's cards. SB is drunk, aggressive and likely doesn't give a damn about Hero's table image.

I am not raising, never ever here. What is Hero planning to do if he gets a stiff 3-bet from SB? Is the plan to fold unimproved on the flop? For that matter, what is Hero's plan on the majority of the flops where he misses? So what would be the purpose of a pre-flop raise?

Hero should limp, expecting SB to raise it up. Let's see a flop if it is cheap enough. Hero can fold preflop to enough action, should that happen.

I suggest playing pure fit/fold vs pocket nines. Yes, yes Hero might be able to blow SB off the best hand. Well maybe he can, but why blow the stack with a fancy play. Let's just make the simple. See a less expensive flop, give up unimproved, go to war with top pair. Tread carefully with multi-way action.

it is OK to get out played by a third villain. It is not OK to stack off to pocket nines preflop. It is not OK to lose your stack trying a fancy play vs a drunk.

DrStrange

No offense, but this is an incorrect line of thinking.

We can assume the drunk aggressive with 99 is never folding. If we can get all the other players out of the pot, we are printing money when we get it all in vs 99.

With 3 limpers already in the pot, I would size up to $30 or even $35. If sb 3-bets us we snap shove expecting a call.

We are ahead of all of the limpers ranges and the bb calling range here. Even after all this action you have to shove and hope you can get this heads up with the sb, but expecting to still be a favorite to win the hand even if you get 2 callers, although you may be only winning the hand 40% of the time.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Shove, win it now or get it heads-up with dead money in the pot

Run it 12 times and buy insurance

 

[yone]

No offense, but this is an incorrect line of thinking.

We can assume the drunk aggressive with 99 is never folding. If we can get all the other players out of the pot, we are printing money when we get it all in vs 99.

With 3 limpers already in the pot, I would size up to $30 or even $35. If sb 3-bets us we snap shove expecting a call.

We are ahead of all of the limpers ranges and the bb calling range here. Even after all this action you have to shove and hope you can get this heads up with the sb, but expecting to still be a favorite to win the hand even if you get 2 callers, although you may be only winning the hand 40% of the time.

If 99 is not folding, do you want to race with him all in? 99 is still favored to win against AKo. Why gamble your whole stack?

 

[Anthony Martino]

If 99 is not folding, do you want to race with him all in? 99 is still favored to win against AKo. Why gamble your whole stack?

It's about the math. To give an extreme example, if you could risk $1,000 with a chance to win $1 million, I'd get it in with 22 even if I know my opponent has AA

Yeah I may only be 18-20% to win the pot, but the price I'm being laid makes it profitable long-term

 

[mipevi]

Call.

 

[yone]

It’s interesting that bb calls 3 bet, and utg calls. Both probably looking for long shot massive payoff with pot odds - also not respecting the drunk and maybe thinking it was a button raise? I suppose you are right on the pot odds. Too tired to do the math now. But about 45% to win - put in 360 to win 450 in profit. Not a huge bargain though.

 

[Anthony Martino]

There's a possibility the drunk folds and everyone else and we win what's out there. The drunk really shouldn't be calling with 99 there if we 4-bet shove since generally AT BEST he is coin-flipping, and oftentimes completely dominated

 

[yone]

I think I am risk adverse, so I would love it if everyone folded including 99. The possibility of making your opponents fold is an important weapon. But just like you can’t outplay a bad player, the drunk might not know what to be scared of. Are you worried at all about BB or UTG?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Are you worried at all about BB or UTG?

No more than I am of 99 here. We block AA and KK, so based on their actions it's doubtful we are dominated.

In a cash game I'm ok flipping a coin for the right price

 

[yone]

Yup, that’s how the casinos make their money. Pot odds in their favor every time!
I definitely feel better shoving first, as opposed to seeing the flop and sb shoving.

 

[ChaosRock]

Shove.

 

[Frogzilla]

All the money is still to be made postflop. I just flat here.

 

[ekricket]

There's a possibility the drunk folds and everyone else and we win what's out there. The drunk really shouldn't be calling with 99 there if we 4-bet shove since generally AT BEST he is coin-flipping, and oftentimes completely dominated

Have you ever played a drunk? Folding is not possible here for him, he’s shoving pre flop or after the flop without looking.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Have you ever played a drunk? Folding is not possible here for him, he’s shoving pre flop or after the flop without looking.

So get it in pre with the dead money from the other players, it's long-term positive EV

 

[ekricket]

So get it in pre with the dead money from the other players, it's long-term positive EV

AK is just a decent drawing hand.