How many players exchange it for an additional 10K at the beginning? I agree that's where you would get the most bang for your buck (as a player) and I can't imagine not doing it right then if it's an option. You probably know this pretty exactly, but if not, would you mind estimating the following?
- What percent of players take it all in the beginning?
- What percent of players will add it while they still have chips but before it is required?
- What percent will wait until they have no choice?
Personally, I think that starting with the maximum chips available is the most +EV approach, but it typically works out this way:
1. 20% to 25% redeem immediately -- this is usually a combination of the most experienced players and some very aggressive players (bullies)
2. 55% to 70% redeem during the redemption period **
3. 10% to 20% redeem at break (no choice) -- usually the weaker players who weren't forced to take it during play (#2), or those who doubled up early and didn't need it
** Of those who do redeem the pre-buy chip during play (#2), about half do so when 'felted' after losing their current chips, and about half will do so voluntarily while still having chips (although usually they are very short-stacked following a big loss). Only a couple of experienced players (who don't take the chips initially) actually use the pre-buy chip to proactively manage their stack size in relation to that of other players and to
prevent becoming short-stacked.
The number of re-buys has dropped slightly since the pre-buy concept was introduced several years ago, since often an early bad-beat (or bad play) doesn't result in elimination, but just the redemption of the player's pre-buy chip..... and then they tighten up to avoid elimination. Related, the number of players who double-up and hit the second break with massive stacks is also down, so the playing field is a bit more leveled in that regard. Another result is that the number of players totally eliminated before second break has dropped to almost zero..... so if keeping players involved in the game longer before busting out is the goal (
@Poker Zombie ), the pre-buy approach works in that regard.
One aspect I've noticed recently this year is a tendency of a few relatively tight players to go into short-stack mode when their chip count drops significantly, knowing that they can get more chips if unsuccessful with an all-in. I personally think that redeeming the pre-buy at that point to increase their stack size is the better option (and would be more in alignment with their play style), but that doesn't appear to be what is happening.
This past season was our fourth one since introducing the pre-buy concept. The first attempt used 30K stacks, issuing 10K and two 10K pre-buy chips with no re-buys (so players could start with 10k, 20k, or 30k). The past three seasons have used 20K stacks, issuing 10K and one 10K pre-buy, and adding re-buys back into the structure. I am undecided what to do for next season -- we may continue as-is, change it to 10K stacks with two 5K pre-buys, or eliminate it altogether. I'm leaning towards the latter, and using the pre-buy concept only for our supporting events.