Daniel Negreanu vs Doug Polk (3 Viewers)

Who will win the heads up match?

  • Total voters
    187
Poker Zombie said:
Even Polk has commented that he has had a remarkably good number of run-outs. He said that he expected variance to get him back, leveling out.

Unfortunately (or fortunately for Polk) variance doesn't work like that. Once a big run of unusual luck occurs, it is history. 40 drops of red on roulette does not alter the next 40 spins of the wheel. Polk had a hot run, period. He even admits to it.

I suspect if the run had gone differently, Dnegs would be playing better, as he appears to be very tilty right now. It would be interesting to know how Polk would have handled a similar run of bad luck. Same? Calmly? Refusal to play the optional hands? We likely will never know.
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ill refer to this amazing picture on how one should handle variance :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
RichMahogany said:
i had already posted this elsewhere but...

View attachment 608074
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I'm fairly certain this is dnegs first online challenge where it spanned over a considerable amount of hands. To put things in perspective, here is a screenshot of dougs graph after playing 330k hands of HUNL online on stars and FT (video here:
):
1611164393660.png


tl;dr: up ~3,500,000 over 330k hands.

Doug has a proven track record at HUNL at nosebleeds, Daniel doesn't. And based on his reaction and tilting, not sure he could hang for 300k hands.
 
Regularjohn said:
thought they werent allowed to use any HUD info?
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Unless there is some way to verify, I always question it.

Not saying that Polk isn't good enough to beat DNegs without one, but there will always be a shadow of doubt in my mind. Afterall we all know Online poker is rigged - or at least the easiest way to cheat.

Edit - in Doug's tweets, he admits to using a "solver". So there you have it. DNegs may as well be playing a bot.
 
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Poker Zombie said:
Unless there is some way to verify, I always question it.

Not saying that Polk isn't good enough to beat DNegs without one, but there will always be a shadow of doubt in my mind. Afterall we all know Online poker is rigged - or at least the easiest way to cheat.
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Head to head I think many frequencies would become obvious even without a HUd. Bigger concern for me would be a solver that allowed you to play “perfect” Heads up is closest to solved poker anyway. I think several online pros have been caught doing this.
 
Poker Zombie said:
Unless there is some way to verify, I always question it.

Not saying that Polk isn't good enough to beat DNegs without one, but there will always be a shadow of doubt in my mind. Afterall we all know Online poker is rigged - or at least the easiest way to cheat.

Edit - in Doug's tweets, he admits to using a "solver". So there you have it. DNegs may as well be playing a bot.
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From what I've seen in interviews, they aren't allowed any hud and they each have a camera set up to verify no cheating.

And he's not using solvers in the session, he's using solvers for study purposes.

Edit: there is no chance in hell dnegs would take on this session if there was any hint of cheating. The amount of money being played for and the side bets is too much.
 
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So he live-tweeted in-game that the solver indicated the correct play, but he wasn't using it during the session? o_O
 
I hear a fat lady singing in Vegas. This thing is over.
I was hoping it would be closer for entertainment purposes because it’s been fun to watch but now there’s no point.

We know who was the better player in this and much respect to DNegs for accepting it.
For me, watching it, Doug is getting way more value from his minimum holdings hands then Daniel.
and the all in e/v is also a big part.
It was a good fight but it’s done.
 

Rule #4: No HUDs or hand trackers may be used​

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confirmed, part of the rule set they cant use any HUDs or hand trackers. And like I said, they have cameras set up on their computers which feed to a 3rd party so using something like a solver would be caught (trying to find the video where he shows this). But there is nothing stopping Doug from pulling up the hands streamed and using the solver for studying. Dnegs is also getting coaching and studying as well, so I dont see this being shady at all.
 
I like Dnegs well enough and he is a great player but, don't see this as the "best" advertising for his Master Class . . .

dnegs.jpg
 
interesting thought....would he lose his contract with master class because a) public losing b) all the talk about his sausage
 
I understand if people think Daniel is a douche and it’s hard to disagree.
What I don’t understand is cheering on Doug’s trolling. There’s something to be said for class. Or at least I thought there was.
 
upNdown said:
I understand if people think Daniel is a douche and it’s hard to disagree.
What I don’t understand is cheering on Doug’s trolling. There’s something to be said for class. Or at least I thought there was.
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I hear ya. If I'm a fan boy for anyone, its Galfond. No trolling, no gloating. Just wins, and on to the next.

I get lots of laughs from dnegs vs doug because dnegs brings it on himself. Doug actually hasnt been trolling at all until recently. And I think dougs most recent trolling is warranted based on how dnegs is handling himself (or lack there of).
 
The "more rake" billboard troll - that was original and hilarious. His current trolling is just shitty sportsmanship. Anyone like that would never be allowed in my game.
 
Regularjohn said:
has anyone done the math when he can just auto fold his way to victory? Not sure if doug would even do this, but we gotta be getting close to it.

and the doug lols keep coming...

https://www.instagram.com/p/CKUQ0m3pXfa/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

I cant stop laughing at the thought of how steamed up dnegs is :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
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Since they're playing $200/$400, Doug would lose $600 every two hands or $300 per hand. There are 7122 hands left, so if Doug folded the remainder of the challenge, he would lose $2.136M and be down $1.134M overall.

I was interested in doing the calculation since it was relevant in Phil Galfond's match vs VeniVidi, but Doug has already stated that he won't fold to victory. I'm unsure how much $$$ he has in side bets, though.
 

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