WSOP Circuit Event Day 2, WWYD?

bsdunbar1

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I have been stewing over this for a couple of days. Give me your thoughts on this action.
I'll try to describe all the variables and then I have 2 questions.

$600 Buy-in
Day 2
Pays 30k to win.
24 left, I am smack dab in the middle of the chip stacks with 225k
Blinds are 4000/8000/8000. 20k in the flop preflop.

1st two hands of Day 2 are a small raise followed by everyone folding.
3rd hand 1st to act and I have :ad::jd:
I raise to 25k
folds around to the button who has 85k and decides it is go-time for him.
I call the additional 60k and he turns over :8s::8h:
I pick up a flush draw on the turn but don't hit anything and lose the hand.

In any home game or any $100 tourney I make this move every time and don't even think about it, but this happened to me twice this week in these bigger tourney's so it has me questioning if I should be changing my play since there is so much money on the line.

Questions -
1. In this scenario should I have folded the AJ pre and waited for a better spot/made hand/position/etc
2. After making the prefolp raise should I have folded for the additional 60k?
 

bsdunbar1

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I make the same play you did. You are playing to win, not ladder up, correct?
Correct, that is my thinking but that thinking in several events now has me cashing out early, which has me rethinking things.
 

AH77

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At some point in a tournament you are just going to have to win these coin flip scenarios and get lucky. If you were making calls in these spots and they kept turning over hands like AK, QQ, KK, AA then maybe you were calling a bit too light but the scenario you described is fairly cut and dry.

You had a comfortable amount of chips at the start of the hand but not enough to sit back and let the blinds and antes eat away at your stack while everyone else around you keeps chipping up on the short stacks.
 

bsdunbar1

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I see it is 30k to win, do you know the other payouts?
1582121846688.png
 

p5woody

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I would have played it the same way, so that probably means you played it completely wrong. Interested to see what the pros here think.

My thinking - Payouts are top heavy so moving up a few spots isn't worth it - play for the win. I would have raised pre-flop, at this stage you can't fold all but premium hands. After the raise, I think you have to call the 60K, unless you have a read and think he only shoves with these hands AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ. I would be okay getting into a race at this point. I am a home game, low stakes player so I have no clue what I am talking about :)
 

Geremie

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I would agree with the group consensus. Playing for the win is what you need to do and I’d make a similar play. Getting blinded out waiting for ultra premium hands or grinding out a couple spots up for an extra $60 doesn’t really make sense.

Also, if the raise was to 225K instead of 85K then it would be a different decision because it’s not a short stack trying to double up.
 

timinater

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I think at this stage 25K is bigger than is necessary. 18 to 20 gets the job done... probably. There is 45K in the pot, and the villain jams for 85K and its only 60K to win 130K. That's better than 2:1 and a pretty good price if you suspect you are racing often against this player. Sometimes you'll run into monsters but overall this is a tough one to fold.

These fields are often made up of poker room regs and home game players, but often aren't that sophisticated in their thinking so they probably aren't shoving as wide or as often as they should be with 10bb here, so you definitely want to be calling more with your stronger holdings and folding some of the marginal stuff.
 

upNdown

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I think at this stage 25K is bigger than is necessary. 18 to 20 gets the job done... probably. There is 45K in the pot, and the villain jams for 85K and its only 60K to win 130K. That's better than 2:1 and a pretty good price if you suspect you are racing often against this player. Sometimes you'll run into monsters but overall this is a tough one to fold.
This is what I was gonna say
 

Legend5555

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Raise smaller pre. In tournaments the pressure to not bust (especially later) + shorter avg stacks (compared to cash games) means you don't have to raise much more than minimum to get the job done. Anything from 2x-2.5x is good enough.

8 handed, I think AJs is a fairly standard open UTG. And once you do for your sizing and someone shoves for 10bb, you really can't fold. Pot is 130k, 60k to call. Better than 2 to 1. You just can't fold for that price unless you have some sort of insane soul read. You are going to be dominated sometimes for sure, but you are also flipping A LOT, and sometimes have the best hand against KQ and ATs.

Other than the open size, this seems pretty standard to me.
 

bsdunbar1

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General consensus is a smaller pre-flop raise, but lets say I opened for 18k?
Is the 5-7k difference in the smaller opening raise enough to influence you to fold to the 85k shove?
 

upNdown

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General consensus is a smaller pre-flop raise, but lets say I opened for 18k?
Is the 5-7k difference in the smaller opening raise enough to influence you to fold to the 85k shove?
Probably not.
Stop beating yourself up.
Poker’s mean.
 

DrStrange

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If Hero could see villain's hand this is an easy call. 52.5% wins for villain vs 47.5% wins for Hero. Hero pays 60K to win 190K. But hero doesn't actually know this, he has a range in mind for villain's jam. How wide could this be for villain?

Villain has an "M: just above 4. It isn't clear if button posted 8K in antes or if the antes are individual or if there is a third blind posted UTG. Let's just assume individual blinds. Point is, villain is getting close to panic time. He could have a pretty wide range to 3-bet jam. I think we might feel differently if this was a 3-bet from another deeper stack with the biggest action to happen post flop.

This hand played out like it was intended to. Hero's hand is near my cut-off from UTG but villain's situation is likely pressing his to take an action. We would benefit marginally from Hero's table image and villain reads, but I think Hero's odds are too good to fold no matter the reads.

The real problem is Hero called "tails" and the dang coin landed on "heads" Do better calling the flip next time -=- DrStrange
 

Ghoti

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I also would have played it the same, except the preflop raise was a little big imo. I make it 18k.
 

ArmandoStacks

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I have been stewing over this for a couple of days. Give me your thoughts on this action.
I'll try to describe all the variables and then I have 2 questions.

$600 Buy-in
Day 2
Pays 30k to win.
24 left, I am smack dab in the middle of the chip stacks with 225k
Blinds are 4000/8000/8000. 20k in the flop preflop.

1st two hands of Day 2 are a small raise followed by everyone folding.
3rd hand 1st to act and I have :ad::jd:
I raise to 25k
folds around to the button who has 85k and decides it is go-time for him.
I call the additional 60k and he turns over :8s::8h:
I pick up a flush draw on the turn but don't hit anything and lose the hand.

In any home game or any $100 tourney I make this move every time and don't even think about it, but this happened to me twice this week in these bigger tourney's so it has me questioning if I should be changing my play since there is so much money on the line.

Questions -
1. In this scenario should I have folded the AJ pre and waited for a better spot/made hand/position/etc
2. After making the prefolp raise should I have folded for the additional 60k?


Play your game, if you play AJ like that you'll do fine especially if you're going heads up. It will pay off eventually.
 

Frogzilla

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Tourneys ITM you really want to be opening small and playing pot control. 8-handed opening AJs is really standard (albeit smaller, 18-20k) and then as played you’re happy to snap off a 10bb button jam
 

Pinball

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Bad spot for you mate.

Preflop raise is standard. Maybe you could raise a bit less here -> 20k but this doesn't change anything for the call of the reraise. While calling you might never get more than 50% vs his 3-bet jam.
 

danopoker

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You played it right, I believe. I rethink through how I played in a similar situation many years ago in a big tournament at Binion's in downtown Vegas. I folded in similar situations where my opening raises were met with short stacks going all-in, and I didn't have what I wanted to call (AQs, AK, JJ+) so I folded every time until I was no longer healthy in chips and waiting for my own hand to shove. In the end it didn't work out great, I cashed enough to pay for my buy-in, the wife's buy-in, and her buy in for a second tournament while I finished up, but always felt like I should have made the final table somehow.
 

Bmeister51

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Im just going to play devils advocate here but know that 90% of the time I'm doing the same thing as you. I had a similar situation deep in a Circut event recently with AK where I wish I folded pre so I'll walk you through my throught process on the flip side in folding to the shove just as an exercise.

There arguments here to fold pre. Knowing that you have to win flips to win tournaments think of it this way: At the very bottom of their range they have 22. They're probably shoving with anything 8s or better since we all should know 8s are 54% even against AK. The opponent having 8s is a good example here. For 85k which is essentially 40% of your stack you should have at least that much equity to call. If he has AK or AQ, AA,KK,QQ or JJ you're in big trouble. There are less combos on those hands available true, but of the likely possible hands he is shoving with having only 10BB he could have you in really bad shape deep in a tournament for a huge chunk of your stack. While again, I agree that you made the right play and absolutely made the right sizing with your lead out folding after the shove gives you the opportunity to pick a better spot. AJ in general is hard to play post flop in early position so the call i believe is correct but sometimes in a tournament its the hand you decide NOT to play that makes the difference. Just a dissenting opinion to think about.
 

DrStrange

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Hero has an "M" of 11. That roughly translates to 17 "big blinds" which is firmly in the short stacked camp. Think of it as a $35 stack in a $1/$2 game, though I know it doesn't exactly work that way. "one pair" hands are going to be dominating at showdown.

Hero isn't in panic mode but I think he needs to be eager to grasp opportunity when presented. AJs is something like a 93rd percentile hand. Likely to be the best hand at the table. Hero's position is bad. On the other hand, Hero's raise from UTG might give the table reason to fear if Hero has a Tagish reputation. Grabbing the dead money uncontested is a fine result.

Folding AJs UTG can't be a big mistake. But Hero should be mindful that winning the event or at least cashing for "big" money is hard to do playing it safe. Safety plays are the way to go if the goal is to run deep and perhaps limp into the money. I do hate playing OOP, I also hate folding premium hands.

I think the table dynamics matter a lot here. If the table is aggressive and prone to put pressure on. If hero's reputation is loose. Then perhaps a fold is best. If the table is rarely getting to showdown and the dead money is often stealable then I think Hero should put in a raise rather than fold. It is worthy of discussion though.

DrStrange
 

Moxie Mike

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Just a dissenting opinion to think about.

No offense man but this is the shit that's already in his head.

You need to chip up at this stage of the tournament to maintain your 'M' - and this was a quality opportunity to do so. In this in particular spot you're seldom dominated, and crush or tie most of the Villain's range. @DrStrange's analysis is better than anything I could type up.

Making a deep run in tournaments is not an exercise in risk aversion. You need to get lucky sometimes, and more importantly you need to get lucky at the right time. You also need to get lucky in the sense that you can't get unlucky at the wrong time.

Bill, you're a good player and a worthy adversary on the P*s circuit. So let me say this to you: Would you still have posted this in the strategy forum if you'd won the hand?

I suspect not - and that should tell you a lot. FWIW - I totally get second guessing a standard play enough to seek advice. I did something similar last summer.

Congrats on a deep run to 20th place. BTW I'm (probably) playing in a 2-day WSOP Circuit event this weekend in Chicago - you've set the bar high my friend :)
 

bsdunbar1

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Hero isn't in panic mode but I think he needs to be eager to grasp opportunity when presented. AJs is something like a 93rd percentile hand. Likely to be the best hand at the table. Hero's position is bad. On the other hand, Hero's raise from UTG might give the table reason to fear if Hero has a Tagish reputation. Grabbing the dead money uncontested is a fine result.

This was plan #1 :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:


I think the table dynamics matter a lot here. If the table is aggressive and prone to put pressure on. If hero's reputation is loose. Then perhaps a fold is best. If the table is rarely getting to showdown and the dead money is often stealable then I think Hero should put in a raise rather than fold. It is worthy of discussion though.

This hand was on Day 2, 3rd hand into a fresh table.
Although Day 1 lasted 11.5 hrs and most at the table had played with each other sometime throughout day 1, a table read for this stage of the tourney isn't there yet.
To get to this point in the event everyone at the table is competent and knows how to play well enough to dodge many big mistakes for the previous 11hrs. Unfortunately this time of the tournament comes down to who gets the winning cards, there weren't a lot of "playing" chips.
 
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Kid_Eastwood

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You might find a fold depending on the villain's profile and how he sees you.
What do you think he sees you raising UTG ?
For sure, you are not in a desperate situation. So he probably gives credit to your early position raise.
Knowing this, at best you'll be in a flip situation or in a dominated situation.
Have you seen him bluffing a lot ?

Edit : since it's Bégin of day you don't have a lot of info on him probably...
 

Highli99

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Bill where this hand went south for you is when you didn't flop and ace or jack. You should have tried harder to do that since either one of those would have been enough to beat your opponent. When your flop play failed, you also forgot to make a pair on the turn. That would have really helped. Your ship was sunk when river didn't bring an ace or jack. That was your last shot and you kinda squandered it. It was a little embarrassing to read how you punted on the river. You just left those chip soldiers on the field of battle to suffer a terrible fate.

In summary, you need to do a better job smashing flops, spiking turns, or binking rivers. If you don't improve that part of your game it's going to be very hard to find the success you're aspiring to.

If you are interested in coaching around this part of your game let's get a PM going. My retainer is very reasonable.
 

bsdunbar1

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Bill where this hand went south for you is when you didn't flop and ace or jack. You should have tried harder to do that since either one of those would have been enough to beat your opponent. When your flop play failed, you also forgot to make a pair on the turn. That would have really helped. Your ship was sunk when river didn't bring an ace or jack. That was your last shot and you kinda squandered it. It was a little embarrassing to read how you punted on the river. You just left those chip soldiers on the field of battle to suffer a terrible fate.

In summary, you need to do a better job smashing flops, spiking turns, or binking rivers. If you don't improve that part of your game it's going to be very hard to find the success you're aspiring to.

If you are interested in coaching around this part of your game let's get a PM going. My retainer is very reasonable.

DAMN now you tell me!!
When you put it like that it sounds so easy. How long is the waiting list for your coaching??? :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 
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