Weird ICM spot (2 Viewers)

[Chippy McChiperson]

@krafticus end of season tourney, 30 entrants get paid. We're 4 handed, and the chipleader, a solid player, has been on fire knocking out 2 people in the same hand with AA to get 6 handed, then knocking out the second biggest stack with a flopped set vs two overs and a flush draw to get 4 handed.

Blinds are now 2.5k/5k no ante. Chipleader is UTG with about 340k, he folds. Button shoves her last 47k, and hero is in SB with 52.5k total. BB has about 30k. Hero looks down and has QQ. Now normally this is an obvious snap call, but I was wondering if ICM considerations ever make this a potential fold.

1st place gets 1600, 2nd 1000, 3rd 600, and 4th 400. Also should be noted UTG is one of the tightest players in the league, but obviously opens up her range a little short handed. Both her and the BB are solid players, but BBs are so small at the point any skill differential is largely irrelevant.

 

[davislane]

Fold QQ 4 handed? what is this crazy talk?

 

[mipevi]

Theoretically there can be spots where folding even AA is correct, as I’m sure you’re aware, but without looking at the math this seems like a trivial call. To make it more interesting, you would need to be close in chips to the leader (with the other two players way behind), and the chip leader would do the shoving. Obviously the payout structure matters as well.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

You have 10BB, 4 handed, already in the money. If you're folding QQ to a smaller ( or any ) stack, you're getting exploited big time.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

You have 10BB, 4 handed, already in the money. If you're folding QQ to a smaller ( or any ) stack, you're getting exploited big time.

I didn't fold, I snap called, but I was wondering if I should've at least considered it. i knew I was likely 75% to win the hand, but that means I'm 25% to lose and finish in 4th, and there was a $200 pay jump to 3rd and a further $400 jump to 2nd.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I didn't fold, I snap called, but I was wondering if I should've at least considered it. i knew I was likely 75% to win the hand, but that means I'm 25% to lose and finish in 4th, and there was a $200 pay jump to 3rd and a further $400 jump to 2nd.

Sure, but you're also short stacked and what hands are you looking to chip up with? Would you rather call a shove with QQ or shove with KQ an orbit later? Are you playing for 3rd or the win?

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I assume since you posted this, that you lost the hand. But, good call IMO.

 

[JMC9389]

Yeah, it's a pretty straight forward snap all in with just over 10 BB's left in a four handed game, ICM be damned. Hero is significantly ahead a good majority of the time unless this goes multiways.

 

[Aray12]

I’m snap calling no doubt

 

[Frogzilla]

Omg please do not fold

Call

Call

 

[Steve Birrer]

I can't believe this is even a question....lol

 

[Highli99]

Obviously before you do anything look under the table and see what she is doing with her feet. Then, base your move on your foot read.

Lol I’m not bitter!

I think you need to call here for ICM but it might be a more nuanced question if you were on the buble.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

The difference between the bubble and 6th was $200, same as the difference between 4th and 3rd fyi

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Anyway, like I said earlier, I did snap, BB tank folded 88 face up, and button had AQhh and spiked an ace on the river. Two hands later I had JJ utg, and put my last 5.5k in, everyone called of course (BB only had to put in another 500), and she had 68 and the flop ran out k636x and I was out in 4th.

Like most of you I thought it was a no brainer snap call, but looking back at it I was just wondering if maybe I should have thought about it for laddering up considerations since the chipleader had such a huge advantage and was taking everyone out. Was wondering what the math said about it.

 

[Frogzilla]

ICM pressure isn’t nothing here since button has 60% of your stack but not huge. Chip EV is to call 12% which is something like 44+, A8s+, ATo+, some great kings. I’d probably tighten that to 8% with these ICM conditions, something like 77+, ATs+, AJo+. Maybe fold 77 or even 88 if she’s too tight

 

[JMC9389]

Anyway, like I said earlier, I did snap, BB tank folded 88 face up, and button had AQhh and spiked an ace on the river. Two hands later I had JJ utg, and put my last 5.5k in, everyone called of course (BB only had to put in another 500), and she had 68 and the flop ran out k636x and I was out in 4th.

Like most of you I thought it was a no brainer snap call, but looking back at it I was just wondering if maybe I should have thought about it for laddering up considerations since the chipleader had such a huge advantage and was taking everyone out. Was wondering what the math said about it.

Nah, you got it in good and you didn't get a good runout. It happens.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Nah, you got it in good and you didn't get a good runout. It happens.

Yup. Maybe if chippy had a bit more of a stack to survive on and two shorty's against the chip leader. But if he's in the pack, gotta push with QQ imo.

 

[HaRDHouSeiNC]

Anyway, like I said earlier, I did snap, BB tank folded 88 face up, and button had AQhh and spiked an ace on the river. Two hands later I had JJ utg, and put my last 5.5k in, everyone called of course (BB only had to put in another 500), and she had 68 and the flop ran out k636x and I was out in 4th.

Like most of you I thought it was a no brainer snap call, but looking back at it I was just wondering if maybe I should have thought about it for laddering up considerations since the chipleader had such a huge advantage and was taking everyone out. Was wondering what the math said about it.

With 10 big blinds I’m never folding there over $200

 

[utgtrash]

ICM pressure isn’t nothing here since button has 60% of your stack but not huge. Chip EV is to call 12% which is something like 44+, A8s+, ATo+, some great kings. I’d probably tighten that to 8% with these ICM conditions, something like 77+, ATs+, AJo+. Maybe fold 77 or even 88 if she’s too tight

This is the point, the OP isn't folding but wonders if he should be considering it. ICM isn't nothing here, but QQ is too top end to make it correct to fold. i actually would think 88 is also a fold but i don't know the math here.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

obviously no one is tight enough for this not to be a large chip ev gain but some people are shoving tight enough that instead of having 75% you're closer to 65% equity and sometimes lower.

question for the people flipping out about thinking to fold - - what do you think the necessary chip EV is on this call in order to get stacks in?

 

[Thomacetti]

With 10 big blinds I’m never folding there over $200

I agree...ICM wise I would only consider a fold if we are talking bubble in a expensive tourney ($500 and up)

 

[SiouxperStack]

Came here to see what ICM means.

 

[Frogzilla]

Came here to see what ICM means.

ICM is a model used to estimate the value of a chip stack in a tournament (based on payouts and size of other chip stacks).

The term is also used for how much different the value changes vs the chip stack. Example: If doubling up increases your value by 90%, this would be light ICM conditions. If doubling up increases your value by only 50%, ICM is big factor.

 

[pokerplayingpisces]

No. Not folding here over $200. I’m trying to win the tourney. Pushing in this spot gives me the best opportunity. Queens are too good of hand in this spot, and as others have pointed out, I’m probably not gonna pick up any better hands during the next few orbits. Four-handed, with 10BB, it’s time to make a move.
Now, if we’re playing in a much bigger tourney, and talking about a pay jump between 400K and 600K? That’s a much different conversation.

 

[mipevi]

Guys, the amount of money being played for ($200 vs. $10k buy-in) is irrelevant from an ICM perspective.

 

[Thomacetti]

Guys, the amount of money being played for ($200 vs. $10k buy-in) is irrelevant from an ICM perspective.

For you maybe...but I'm not the only one that would tighten up if a +3K payout is at stakes.
In a friendly home tourney I'll never fold QQ in that spot...

That is still ICM perspective imho...

 

[mipevi]

@Thomacetti Only if you are talking about villain’s range, saying that his push range would be tighter in a higher buy-in tournament. However if the only thing changing due to the buy-in size is hero’s call range, well that’s something other than ICM.

 

[kirchhausen]

@krafticus end of season tourney, 30 entrants get paid. We're 4 handed, and the chipleader, a solid player, has been on fire knocking out 2 people in the same hand with AA to get 6 handed, then knocking out the second biggest stack with a flopped set vs two overs and a flush draw to get 4 handed.

Blinds are now 2.5k/5k no ante. Chipleader is UTG with about 340k, he folds. Button shoves her last 47k, and hero is in SB with 52.5k total. BB has about 30k. Hero looks down and has QQ. Now normally this is an obvious snap call, but I was wondering if ICM considerations ever make this a potential fold.

1st place gets 1600, 2nd 1000, 3rd 600, and 4th 400. Also should be noted UTG is one of the tightest players in the league, but obviously opens up her range a little short handed. Both her and the BB are solid players, but BBs are so small at the point any skill differential is largely irrelevant.

Solid player? @Chippy McChiperson That's the nicest thing you've ever said about me

 

[upNdown]

Anyway, like I said earlier, I did snap, BB tank folded 88 face up, and button had AQhh and spiked an ace on the river. Two hands later I had JJ utg, and put my last 5.5k in, everyone called of course (BB only had to put in another 500), and she had 68 and the flop ran out k636x and I was out in 4th.

Like most of you I thought it was a no brainer snap call, but looking back at it I was just wondering if maybe I should have thought about it for laddering up considerations since the chipleader had such a huge advantage and was taking everyone out. Was wondering what the math said about it.

I think it's a good question and everybody here is being too dismissive.
Chipleader has 340K, the other three of you have 130K combined, and you have the biggest piece of that. You very probably could have just stayed out of shit for a few minutes and finished second for $1,000 instead of $400. You almost definitely could have nit your way up to $600 if you folded there. And you certainly couldn't have done any worse than you did. It's a fair question.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

If other players are also playing tight it can take a long time for two to bust, and it’s more likley than not that when one of the small stacks gets their stack in they’ll be better than a coin flip (since the big stack should basically be going all in with almost any two any time he’s opening action). The only situation where this starts making some sense as a fold is if the bb is content pissing his chips away and the button is exceptionally tight.

I don’t think there are any player types where this isn’t a clear call with queens but what you do with queens specifically isn’t as important as how you figure out where to draw the line. 99 may well be a fold against an unusually tight button.