Tourney Strat: Pocket 7s in the SB facing a button shove (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

To my surprise, this was a hand that caused quite a bit of discussion at a game last night. It was played by a reg in this underground game who fancies himself an extremely good player. He's probably 80% as good as he believes. But when anyone disagrees with him, they better be ready to debate.

Tourney is Borgata's $3500 WPT Championship. Hero (not me I don't play tourneys for fucks sake) has been moved to a new table approximately an orbit prior so no big reads. He sits with 22 BBs. Money bubble isn't close enough for consideration.

Action folds around to button who shoves for 9.5 BBs. BB has about 12 BBs. As stated, hero has 22 BBs and looks down at 77.

Hero's play?

 

[stocky]

IMO he's only options are to shove or fold. A shove to isolate and get bb to fold altough there's a good chance he's calling with any decent hand anyway.

With no reads I think it's a fold though. Wait for a better spot.

 

[manamongkids]

What position was he in? SB?

 

[jbutler]

What position was he in? SB?

Yeah as stated in subject.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Absent some really specific information, this just isn't a great spot. It's not even a great spot against button alone, and with BB still left to act, it's even worse.

Whether it's EV+ or not can remain an open question. With 22 BB, Hero still has enough room to play poker that he doesn't need to get almost half his stack involved in such a marginal situation.

 

[guinness]

I'm assuming hero is SB. I fold to flip or complete domination vs unknown.

I don't tourney so LDO take my advice.

Edit: subject ref is bad ref for me. I didn't see it either.

 

[manamongkids]

Reading is not my strong suit.

im folding. I'm not calling off half my stack while its fragile too with 77. 99+ I would reshove.

If he had 30-40 bbs I would consider just calling.

There are better spots and with the structures generally in those big events. U can navigate with 15-20 bbs for a while

 

[Trihonda]

Ya, fold.

Of course, lemme guess, he shoves against AK, and board runs AK7xx?

Good chance we're dominated or flipping a coin for 50% of our stack, and if we lose we're pretty short stacked. I'm always looking for spots to chip up, and not just min-cash... But this is a bad spot IMHO.

 

[DrStrange]

Missing some critical data.

Are there antes? If so, everyone's stack is way shorter than we think. Button's 9.5 BB could easily be an M < 4 and Hero's 22 BB could be an M of ten.

How does Hero's chip count compare to the average stack?

We suspect Hero considers himself as more skilled than the field which will bias the decision towards fold.

DrStrange

 

[Ghoti]

I'm shoving for sure here, no matter who's on the button, and more so if he's a competent tourney player. You're ahead of so much of his range here, flipping sometimes and seldom are you crushed.

 

[Ghoti]

Being on the bubble might change hero's decision, but then we'd definitely need more info about the player on the button.

 

[thorwilliam]

I would probably call in this spot. His button shoving range with less than 10 bb should be quite wide and we cover. I think this looks like a decent spot to gamble to chip up.

 

[MatB]

Button trying to steal. Possibly.

My vote.--Shove All in. Hope BB folds. IF Button calls its a coin flip with you possibly ahead before the flop. Button may also fold. Which is optimum outcome.

 

[thorwilliam]

Button trying to steal. Possibly.

My vote.--Shove All in. Hope BB folds. IF Button calls its a coin flip with you possibly ahead before the flop. Button may also fold. Which is optimum outcome.

Button is already all in.

 

[MatB]

Button is already all in.

Insta-fold then. At best BB has a lower pocket pair. If your lucky

 

[thorwilliam]

Insta-fold then. At best BB has a lower pocket pair. If your lucky

Why insta-fold? He is probably shoving any ace.

 

[MatB]

Why insta-fold? He is probably shoving any ace.

Yes. "probably" , but my personal game style (trying hard to keep this lesson in my head and not always succeeding) is to not get into coin flips. Obviously in NLHE its going to happen.
But i'd rather pick my spots. This is for close to 40% of hero's stack. If it was for 25% i'd consider re- raise, 10-15% and absolutely i'm in.

 

[MatB]

It may not be a coin flip. And 77 is "probably" ahead in that spot. But with 22 BB's and being on the button next hand.....I don't think this is the hand to be building a stack with.

 

[thorwilliam]

Yes. "probably" , but my personal game style (trying hard to keep this lesson in my head and not always succeeding) is to not get into coin flips. Obviously in NLHE its going to happen.
But i'd rather pick my spots. This is for close to 40% of hero's stack. If it was for 25% i'd consider re- raise, 10-15% and absolutely i'm in.

I think in this stage of the tournament we have to be willing to to gamble a bit to accumulate enough chips to be able to win. If we have a big stack close to the bubble, we can put a lot of pressure on many of the other players.

 

[Trihonda]

You have BB to contend with (and zero info on his hand strength). If it were JUST us vs. the button, then I might find a call. However, button knows that he has to go through two players with his shove. His range is any ace (or two overs) and we're flipping a coin, OR a pair (again, even money that it's bigger than ours). If BB comes along, he's either got us crushed, or also has two overs. We're out of position, take those 9bb's and use them in a better spot (say, on the button next hand).

With 22bb, we're not desperate and can be patient. NLHE isn't always a shove-fest... It's also a game of patience.

 

[MatB]

i agree with gambling to build, but you have 2, probably a little desperate players, thinking the same thing. Im not comfortable risking 40% of my stack into a couple of 'do or die' players looking to get back into the game.
Button is all in. he's representing something. So even if its a semi bluff. 10 J or J 9 etc. even monster bluff 27 38 etc. he's not going anywhere. Your gambling for sure.

 

[thorwilliam]

You have BB to contend with (and zero info on his hand strength). If it were JUST us vs. the button, then I might find a call. However, button knows that he has to go through two players with his shove. His range is any ace (or two overs) and we're flipping a coin, OR a pair (again, even money that it's bigger than ours). If BB comes along, he's either got us crushed, or also has two overs. We're out of position, take those 9bb's and use them in a better spot (say, on the button next hand).

With 22bb, we're not desperate and can be patient. NLHE isn't always a shove-fest... It's also a game of patience.

With 22bb and still not close to the bubble, I'm looking to get my stack in in decent spots like this. I think folding is a min cash strategy and not the most profitable play long term. BB only comes along with a monster, which he don'thave very often.

 

[Trihonda]

With 22bb and still not close to the bubble, I'm looking to get my stack in in decent spots like this. I think folding is a min cash strategy and not the most profitable play long term. BB only comes along with a monster, which he don'thave very often.

I don't find this a min cash strat. I also don't think this is a "decent spot". To shove is a gamble. If button has a pair, we're 50/50 in the middle, and are either crushed (looking for two outs) or have him crushed. If button has over cards, we're still a coin flip. I don't like getting it in here. We can chip up (without so much coin flipping) when we're in better spots. If we play this hand and lose, we're out a huge percentage of our stack, and will pretty much be in shove mode (which limits our ability to use our amazing poker skills moving forward).

Of course, I could be wrong. I think a lot for me depends on table reads, is button strong, trying to steal, etc... But overall I think folding is the smartest choice here.

 

[Ghoti]

You have BB to contend with (and zero info on his hand strength). If it were JUST us vs. the button, then I might find a call. However, button knows that he has to go through two players with his shove. His range is any ace (or two overs) and we're flipping a coin, OR a pair (again, even money that it's bigger than ours). If BB comes along, he's either got us crushed, or also has two overs. We're out of position, take those 9bb's and use them in a better spot (say, on the button next hand).

With 22bb, we're not desperate and can be patient. NLHE isn't always a shove-fest... It's also a game of patience.

I think you're worrying a bit too much about the bb here. And in regards to the last paragraph, I think that logic is a bit off. Yeah, we're not in a desperate position where we simply have to play push fold poker (on that note, the button is, which makes our hand that much stronger). But that doesn't change our equity in this hand at all, which is a lot because, well, we have sevens, which is a big hand in this situation. Furthermore, if you're folding hands as strong as sevens in this situation you are making yourself extremely exploitable playing out of the blinds. So by folding here, you're making it correct for the bb to shove an even wider range than he'd be shoving in the first place.

It may well be that bb woke up with a monster here. But using that as a way to justify folding sevens would be extremely results oriented.

 

[Ghoti]

I don't find this a min cash strat. I also don't think this is a "decent spot". To shove is a gamble. If button has a pair, we're 50/50 in the middle, and are either crushed (looking for two outs) or have him crushed. If button has over cards, we're still a coin flip. I don't like getting it in here. We can chip up (without so much coin flipping) when we're in better spots. If we play this hand and lose, we're out a huge percentage of our stack, and will pretty much be in shove mode (which limits our ability to use our amazing poker skills moving forward).

Of course, I could be wrong. I think a lot for me depends on table reads, is button strong, trying to steal, etc... But overall I think folding is the smartest choice here.

Button could easily have 22-66, which you have crushed.

 

[stocky]

Button could easily have 22-66, which you have crushed.

But also 88+ or A10+ which leaves us dominated or flipping at best. For half our stack with no real reads and bb to act still I think it's a fold. We can wait.

 

[BGinGA]

Given the conditions in OP, this is an easy fold. Calling or raising is gambling - maybe with good odds, maybe not. I prefer to play poker with a tad more skill than luck.

 

[Ghoti]

But also 88+ or A10+ which leaves us dominated or flipping at best. For half our stack with no real reads and bb to act still I think it's a fold. We can wait.

Yeah he could easily have 88+ as well. But with his whole range, including two overs, we should be calling. Even if we know he has 2 overs we should be calling.

 

[Ghoti]

So we assign a normal shoving range to button here, with his stack, nothing else known: 22+, any ace, k10+, qj+, j10 suited+. That might even be too conservative. Now, consider he knows we're playing tight--tight enough that we fold pocket sevens here. He can shove basically any two now and exploit the crap out of us because we just made ourself that exploitable.

 

[Trihonda]

Given the conditions in OP, this is an easy fold. Calling or raising is gambling - maybe with good odds, maybe not. I prefer to play poker with a tad more skill than luck.

Yup ^

Yeah he could easily have 88+ as well. But with his whole range, including two overs, we should be calling. Even if we know he has 2 overs we should be calling.

Nope ^

We should never be calling here. I think If we're playing this hand, we're shoving, but I think a fold is better.

I think shoving is a useful tool (ask anyone from the WCB last year, I know). However, I prefer to be the one starting the action, putting others in the position to make hard decisions. Not shoving to risk 40-60% of my stack on a potential coin flip. If we're closer to 10bb, I think it's an easier decision to play the pocket 7's.