Turn Decision w/ Top Pair, non-nut-OESD/non-nut-FD $1/$2 casino NLHE (1 Viewer)

Moxie Mike

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Full ring $1/$2 NLHE 8 handed. Full disclosure I am (EDIT: NOT) the hero in this hand so there's no point in discussing hero's play before the river (unless you want to). Relevant stacks are:

BB: $55
Hero UTG+1: $220
Button: $190

Reads:

BB is a well-dressed, chatty nice guy in his early 40's who likes to make small raises preflop, sees a lot of flops and make thin calls. He is often short stacked and winds up all in well before the river. He likes to buy in for $100 at a time and doesn't reload until he's felted. He's on his second bullet in about 30 mins at the table.

Button: Has been at the table for 2+ hours, has played rather tight and hasn't shown down a hand to this point. He's called a couple PFRs in position and limped into a few hands here and there only to fold on the flop. His one preflop raise won only the blinds. He straddles his button every time for $5 every time.

$5 Straddle is on - BB calls, Hero calls with :kh::5h:. Two others call and the Button checks his option.

5 players take a flop of :6h::7s::8h:.

BB leads out for $16. Hero calls. Folds around to the button, who raises to $56.

BB calls for less, Hero calls $40.

Turn is :kd:.

Hero checks, Button shoves for his last $129 with no hesitation. Pot is $317.

Hero's move? Easy call? Grit your teeth and call? Easy fold?

Hypothetical side discussion: How does this decision change if the river is a complete blank, or is the :ad: instead of the :kd:?
 
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Snap call.

If he has a set, your straight and flush draws are live; a made straight your flush draw is live, or he’s spassing out completely with a 9 and a straight draw and you are ahead already.

If my math is correct you only need 28% equity to call. You’ve probably got about 42% even if we give him a very strong range.

Also, why on earth are you limping k5 suited in utg+1. Fold pre.
 
I had the pot at around $276 before rake. Just thinking how to justify the call. Don’t think we are winning at this point. At best we are up against 2 pair which gives us way more outs. He could have a straight which is terrible and will only leave us with a flush draw to win.

Edit: forgot about the set
 
Snap call.

If he has a set, your straight and flush draws are live; a made straight your flush draw is live, or he’s spassing out completely with a 9 and a straight draw and you are ahead already.

If my math is correct you only need 28% equity to call. You’ve probably got about 42% even if we give him a very strong range.

Not worried he might be holding :ah::9h:?

Also, why on earth are you limping k5 suited in utg+1. Fold pre.

Couldn't tell ya - I wasn't the hero in this hand :)
 
I had the pot at around $276 before rake. Just thinking how to justify the call. Don’t think we are winning at this point. At best we are up against 2 pair which gives us way more outs. He could have a straight which is terrible and will only leave us with a flush draw to win.

Edit: forgot about the set

$26 preflop+(56+56+50) on the flop + 129 = $317 (FWIW my math was wrong too... I forgot BB was AI on the flop for less.)
 
You peg button as tight. He has played this hand aggressively. So what might he have started with?
:ks::kc:, :6x::6x:,:7x::7x:, :8x::8x::ah::9h:,:ah::kx: with some chance he has :tx::9x: or perhaps :9x::9x:

Does he check his option with one of those pocket pairs? KK probably not but he sure could with 6,7,8, or 9s. Would he check preflop with :ah::9h:? Probabaly. But he probably raises with Ak.

He then raises post flop fairly big and snap shoves post turn. I am leaning towards him having a strong hand either a set or 10 high straight. That means hero must catch a heart to win the hand outright and potentially a K could win with top set. Hero has 9 heart outs (max) and two Ks. 11 outs is about 22% to hit so Hero needs over 4 to 1 pot odds to call.

Fold.
 
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You peg button as tight. He has played this hand aggressively.
:ks::kc:, :6x::6x:,:7x::7x:, :8x::8x::ah::9h:,:ah::kx: with some chance he has :th::9h:

Button has been rather tight to this point and hasn't shown any aggression to speak of before this flop. He even checked his option on the straddle. I think you can take KK and AK out of his range, or any other hand that's an automatic PFR from the button. It should be pretty apparent that he connected well with this flop in one way or another.
 
$26 preflop+(56+56+50) on the flop + 129 = $317 (FWIW my math was wrong too... I forgot BB was AI on the flop for less.)
$26 preflop + (16+56+56) + 129 = $283

I didn’t add small blind before and made a mistake of all in at $123

Edit: just saw bb all in on flop
 
You're lighting money on fire playing hands like :kh::5h: in early position. With the straddle on, you effectively only have a 44bb stack for this hand. When you combine bad position with a shorter stack given the straddle, your hand selection should be near squeaky tight in this spot.

As played, you got one of the best draws possible to flop, and you turned top pair to go with it. If you're not ready to put your money where your mouth is when someone shoves ahead of you given all the equity you have, then it's time to pack it in for the night.
 
There is no pot control with a call on the raise. You know whatever comes on the turn - 85% chance that button is shoving. I can’t see folding on the flop with so many outs. I also don’t like calling all in with one card to go (edit: and slim chances betting on river) I know the results would have been the same, but I would much rather push on the flop - considering button’s stack and bb’s all in.
 
Sorry for the minor confusion. My reason for posting this was to get an objective opinion on the UTG+1's play (we all know his preflop limp was pretty bad - no point in dissecting that one). As the button in this hand, I reflect on my opponent's play and whether I'd have called in his spot but it's hard to do that when I know myself and what I held.

I held :9h::ts: for a flopped nut straight. UTG+1 ended up calling. I didn't win.

My opinion is that given my table image (assuming they're paying attention), he should know top pair is almost never ahead there. A set or two pair has to be the worst hand I'm shoving with there. While he's never drawing dead in that spot, he's not getting a very good price to draw to what could be a 9 outer.

On the flip side, he has many more outs in several other plausible situations, and it was unfortunate for him that I held basically his worst case scenario. So it might not have been as bad of a call as it initially seemed.
 
This is a tough hand to analyze because of the poor decisions made before the turn. K5 suited, on a straddle out of position is asking for trouble. You’re almost looking to hit trip 5s, 2 pair or flush draw on the flop. You got what you’re looking for + a bonus straight draw to go with it. Seems like the decision is clear
 
Sorry didn't take into account the straddle....which I think is stupid.....but that's a different discussion.

Straddling isn't everyone's cup of tea. I like it even though it's generally not a good strategy to put money in the pot blind.

FWIW, even without the straddle I would certainly have limped 9-10o from the button after 4 other limpers. So the straddle isn't super relevant to the story.
 
Button has the advantage of having 2 random cards since he is not VPIP technically. Borderline impossible to range, but I think with top and an up and down straight and flush draw, you can't possibly fold. You have a ton of equity even against 2 pair with the board pairing beating his two pair, you arent terribly behind to a made straight, and you hold blockers against the nut flush draw. You also hold a blocker to a made straight. Theres even a chance you are ahead if he is holding something like 89 making a play using his image. Can't see folding.
 

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