Probability of Flopping Trips in Back to Back Hands (1 Viewer)

[sprintcar22c]

Yesterday i was playing at a local casino had about 5 minutes left to play before i had to leave. 2nd to last hand was dealt pocket 3s rainbow flop with a 3 in there....Last hand was dealt pockets 5s another rainbow flop with a 5 in there...what are the chances of that?

 

[MegaTon44]

I'll spare you too much math, but it's about 7.5 to 1 to flop a set (11.8%). To get it back to back, it is 11.8% x 11.8% = 1.39%

Edit: @DrStrange is correct. I assumed you had pockets then had to hit it. The odds of getting pockets is applied to this makes it very unlikely.

 

[detroitdad]

50/50. You either do or you don't.

Merry Christmas

 

[DrStrange]

Let's stipulate we are talking about a "set" rather than "trips" - a set is three of a kind with two cards in your hand vs trips where we have a pair on the board and one of the hole cards match.

First you have to get a pocket pair in back to back hands. That alone is 0.35 %

Then you have to hit the flop, 1.39%

Combined that is a bit worse than 20,000 - 1

I hope you won both hands . . . grats! if you did

DrStrange

 

[jbutler]

BTW if anyone ever wants to walk up to be at a random point in a poker session and offer me $19k to $1 that I won't make trips the next two hands in a row, I'll take the worst of it.

 

[sprintcar22c]

Yes that was my bad on the wording shoulda said "Flopping A Set"....made about $100 on those 2 hands....the last hand when i flopped a set of 5s the guy to my right has pocket Ks made 1 hell of a laydown after the turn with highest card being a Q on the board to a $20 bet

 

[GoStumpy]

50/50. You either do or you don't.

Merry Christmas

It's been like 6 years and I STILL love this response... were you a part of that 10+ page argument thread on 2p2 about AA vs 72? omg it was priceless.

 

[detroitdad]

No. I'm not on 2+2

 

[Trihonda]

Yes that was my bad on the wording shoulda said "Flopping A Set"....made about $100 on those 2 hands....the last hand when i flopped a set of 5s the guy to my right has pocket Ks made 1 hell of a laydown after the turn with highest card being a Q on the board to a $20 bet

I don't play that good... On a Q-high dry board, if I have KK, I'm never folding to a $20 bet. In fact, I'm getting my money in the middle, and if you have a set, NH.

 

[GoStumpy]

Ah it was priceless... It was literally 10 pages of one or two people saying that AA and 72 have the same chance of winning a hand AIPF, and the rest of the forum yelling at them the *actual* odds... only after 10 pages did one of them finally let the cat out of the bag and say you either win or you don't....

 

[detroitdad]

I don't play that good... On a Q-high dry board, if I have KK, I'm never folding to a $20 bet. In fact, I'm getting my money in the middle, and if you have a set, NH.

Same here

 

[Trihonda]

I don't play that good... On a Q-high dry board, if I have KK, I'm never folding to a $20 bet. In fact, I'm getting my money in the middle, and if you have a set, NH.

I'll add, that the player who folded KK is the person I'd want at ALL my home games. I'd make sure to have his favorite beverage on hand, favorite snacks, etc. you get the picture!

 

[abby99]

Let's stipulate we are talking about a "set" rather than "trips" - a set is three of a kind with two cards in your hand vs trips where we have a pair on the board and one of the hole cards match.

First you have to get a pocket pair in back to back hands. That alone is 0.35 %

Then you have to hit the flop, 1.39%

Combined that is a bit worse than 20,000 - 1

I hope you won both hands . . . grats! if you did

DrStrange

Awesome! It happened to me last night (KK, then TT). I did win both hands. Impressive considering how infrequently I play Hold'em. (y) :thumbsup:

 

[Marius L]

50/50. You either do or you don't.

Merry Christmas

Sonds pretty accurate...

 

[Kain8]

 

[Mr. Cheese]

Last 1/2 NLHE session at the casino I sit down as the big blind and look at J J. I raise it up to 8 bucks and get a couple callers and then another person re-raises to 18 so I call. Everybody but myself and one other person call the raise. Flop comes 7 J 7 so I hit a full house and end up checking calling all the way to the river to double up. (I know a full house isn't trips). The very next hand I get K K and flop a set which I won against pocket rockets for another near double up. Whatever the %'s are that night they were in my favor!

 

[lnlver]

I'll spare you too much math, but it's about 7.5 to 1 to flop a set (11.8%). To get it back to back, it is 11.8% x 11.8% = 1.39%

11.8% is actually the probability of improving your hand on the flop to a set, quads or a full house.

flopping a set = .108 (2112/19600)
flopping a full house = .0073 (144/19600)
flopping quads = .0024 (48/19600)

total = .1176

At any rate, it's a monumental achievement.

 

[Leonard]

My standard answer to these questions: 100%

Because nobody ever asks questions like this until just after it happens. It just happened, therefore 100%.

On every flop, three cards come out and it is always a very unlikely occurrence for those three particular cards to come. Yet, every single flop, yet another unlikely occurrence happens.

Over the course of playing hundreds/thousands/more hand of poker, hands will occur in series that we find unusual. This is just the human mind trying to find patterns in random events and has no real meaning. It certainly doesn't provide any help for a poker player. This is in marked contrast to the number 11.8% (odds of flopping a set or better when holding a pocket pair), which is a very useful number.

To put it another way, the answers above are answers to the question: "What are the odds that in the next two hands I will get a pocket pair and flop a set or better each time?"
The question you really asked was "What are the odds that in the last two hands I will get a pocket pair and flop a set or better each time?" - 100%

L