When (Almost) Full Deck is Dealt: Strategy & Probability Considerations? (1 Viewer)

[TheOffalo]

When playing a game where (nearly) the entire deck is dealt out--e.g., Big O with 9 players (no burn before the river), 7 Card Stud w/7 players when everyone stays in until the end, etc.--I've heard people state that it's unlikely the outs someone is looking for is still in the stub because a player likely was dealt it, or that a player likely has the Ace-high flush by the river (if a flush is possible based on the board), or similar sentiments.

Probability being what it is, the first statement should be wrong as any one card has the same chance of being in the stub as being in a players hand, while the second statement might be true because someone holding the nut flush draw would be more likely to stay in, but that's true whether a whole deck is being dealt out or not.

I guess what I'm asking is if there are additional factors to consider when potentially a whole deck will be dealt out by the end of a hand?

The specific situation coming up is that we have a poker buddy who's moved away but will be in town visiting. This gets some of our less frequent "regulars" to show up too, and we may end up with 10-11 players, which we'll cram into one table. We do normally like Big O and other 5+ hole card games, but obviously we'll be limited to games with 4 hole cards or less, like Hold 'em, Pineapple, and Omaha. And with Omaha, the entire deck would be dealt out with 11 players (44 hole cards, 5 community cards, 3 burn cards).

So how would you play PLO8 (for example) differently if there's only 6-8 players at the table vs. 10-11 players? Would the difference be purely based on the increase number of players, or does the fact that the whole deck (or nearly, if 10 players) will get dealt out by the river have any impact on your strategy?

(Hope this makes sense. Surprisingly hard to articulate...)

 

[Legend5555]

You always calculate probably based on unseen cards. How many people are dealt in doesn't change that.

Your overall hand strength needs to be higher in flop based games when reach player has more hole cards. But the number of cards dealt out doesn't affect this. The raw number of players affects what hands you should enter a lot with as the more players behind you there are, the more likely a strong hand is out there. But again that has nothing to do with the number of cards dealt out.

 

[springbox]

Regardless of how many cards are dealt, the odds of any given card to show up in the community pool are the same. Now, when more cards are dealt the odds one of your opponents will have a given card will go up, because there's simply more cards in your opponents' hands. When fewer cards are dealt, it is more likely the card will remain somewhere in the deck. But neither of these affect the odds of the card hitting the board.

If P(x) is the probability X occurs, for a given card P(card in deck/burnt) + P(card in opponents hand) + P(card hits board) = 100%. Any given card will either be dealt to a player, appear in the community pool, or remain in the deck/be burnt. If you increase the number of players P(card in opponents hand) goes up, and P(card in deck/burnt) goes down, but P(card hits board) doesn't change.

It is more likely that someone else will be holding the nut flush draw when you deal more cards. It is not less likely that the A of spades will be the river when you add players. You should adjust based on the number of players because that means more holdings to compete with, but unless you have a hyper specific read on what's in player's hands it doesn't change the odds you draw to a given out.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Regardless of how many cards are dealt, the odds of any given card to show up in the community pool are the same. Now, when more cards are dealt it is more likely that one of your opponents will have a given card will go up, because there's simply more cards in your opponents' hands. When fewer cards are dealt, it is more likely the card will remain somewhere in the deck. But neither of these affect the odds of the card hitting the board.

If P(x) is the probability X occurs, for a given card P(card in deck/burnt) + P(card in opponents hand) + P(card hits board) = 100%. Any given card will either be dealt to a player, appear in the community pool, or remain in the deck/be burnt. If you increase the number of players P(card in opponents hand) goes up, and P(card in deck/burnt) goes down, but P(card hits board) doesn't change.

It is more likely that someone else will be holding the nut flush draw when you deal more cards. It is not less likely that the A of spades will be the river when you add players. You should adjust based on the number of players because that means more holdings to compete with, but unless you have a hyper specific read on what's in player's hands it doesn't change the odds you draw to a given out.

Yes, this. Thank you for saving me all that typing.

In extreme cases in high-low, you could observe that family pots among players who play well will leave the remaining stub lighter than usual in premium cards like A, 2, and 3, and heavier in shit cards like 9 and T. But it's a murky observation of a rare case, and certainly not worth thinking on too deeply.

 

[TheOffalo]

Thank you all for responding. Even though I was sure each card had the same chance to end up in someone's hand or the board or the burn (or stub), I just wanted to make sure that there weren't any additional considerations when the deck gets (nearly) fully dealt out during a hand.

In extreme cases in high-low, you could observe that family pots among players who play well will leave the remaining stub lighter than usual in premium cards like A, 2, and 3, and heavier in shit cards like 9 and T. But it's a murky observation of a rare case, and certainly not worth thinking on too deeply.

Could you expand on this? I can't see how whether an O8 hand ends up being a family pot or not (among players who play well or not) affects the composition of the stub. No decisions have been made at the time the cards are dealt and the stub is "established.

 

[springbox]

Thank you all for responding. Even though I was sure each card had the same chance to end up in someone's hand or the board or the burn (or stub), I just wanted to make sure that there weren't any additional considerations when the deck gets (nearly) fully dealt out during a hand.


Could you expand on this? I can't see how whether an O8 hand ends up being a family pot or not (among players who play well or not) affects the composition of the stub. No decisions have been made at the time the cards are dealt and the stub is "established.

If your opponents are folding in a limpy/loose game they probably have real trash, so you can *slightly* discount awful cards. If they're calling you'd assume their hand is at least marginal and weighted towards slightly better cards. I wouldn't rely too much on this though.

 

[Goldfish]

Playing big o or 5 card plo with more than 8 players sucks. The dynamics of the game are changed considerably. Bluffing becomes fruitless. The game sucks. You might as well do flips. In the event that we have 9 players on a given night, we always have someone sit out every hand (either under the gun or right of the dealer). If you have 10 players, then 2 players need to sit out each hand.

There is one big o game in my area that plays 9 handed (nobody sits out) and it sucks. They beg me to come and I refuse. Having players sit out is much better for the game. Plus, it gives players time to get a snack or go to the bathroom, etc.

Just my thought.

 

[TheOffalo]

If your opponents are folding in a limpy/loose game they probably have real trash, so you can *slightly* discount awful cards. If they're calling you'd assume their hand is at least marginal and weighted towards slightly better cards. I wouldn't rely too much on this though.

Ahhhh that makes sense, but it could only be determined after action has been taken, thus the family pot "requirement".

Definitely won't rely on it!

 

[TheOffalo]

Playing big o or 5 card plo with more than 8 players sucks. The dynamics of the game are changed considerably. Bluffing becomes fruitless. The game sucks. You might as well do flips. In the event that we have 9 players on a given night, we always have someone sit out every hand (either under the gun or left of the dealer). If you have 10 players, then 2 players need to sit out each hand.

There is one big o game in my area that plays 9 handed (nobody sits out) and it sucks. They beg me to come and I refuse. Having players sit out is much better for the game. Plus, it gives players time to get a snack or go to the bathroom, etc.

Just my thought.

We won't be playing Big O or Scrotum or anything that requires 5+ hole cards until we drop down to 8 or fewer players later in the evening. While we have 9+ the "most" we'll play is PLO8, but there'll probably be a lot more NLHE and Pineapple than usual for our group.

 

[Jimulacrum]

If your opponents are folding in a limpy/loose game they probably have real trash, so you can *slightly* discount awful cards. If they're calling you'd assume their hand is at least marginal and weighted towards slightly better cards. I wouldn't rely too much on this though.

Yes, this is exactly what I meant.

Any edge to be had from this is super marginal and not of any real practice use. Just a food-for-thought kind of thing.

 

[BGinGA]

So how would you play PLO8 (for example) differently if there's only 6-8 players at the table vs. 10-11 players?

The difference is that I wouldn't play PLO8 (or any non-Hold'em game) with 10-11 players. Would also avoid Hold'em too with that many players, if possible.

 

[Taghkanic]

Playing big o or 5 card plo with more than 8 players sucks.

Yes. And it also sucks with any more than 7.

 

[upNdown]

We won't be playing Big O or Scrotum or anything that requires 5+ hole cards until we drop down to 8 or fewer players later in the evening. While we have 9+ the "most" we'll play is PLO8, but there'll probably be a lot more NLHE and Pineapple than usual for our group.

I’m no plo8 expert but I’ve had fun with it. It’s already a game that’s all about hand selection. But playing 10 or 11 handed - wow. I’m trying to think of what hands I’d play.
I think it goes without saying that you pretty much don’t play without an ace. But you’d want to be more discerning than that.
Maybe don’t play without A2 or AA or a suited A plus? I guess you’d see a flop with 2345. It would be tough to fold KK pre, but it might be the right move.
I’d love to hear people’s thoughts.

 

[Sparkynutz]

Play horse racing

 

[Jimulacrum]

The difference is that I wouldn't play PLO8 (or any non-Hold'em game) with 10-11 players. Would also avoid Hold'em too with that many players, if possible.

I don't love 10-handed, but I can tolerate it sometimes. Usually it doesn't last that long anyway.

But it kills me when we get that 11th player and people want to play one 11-handed table instead of two short-handed tables.

 

[Jimulacrum]

The difference is that I wouldn't play PLO8 (or any non-Hold'em game) with 10-11 players. Would also avoid Hold'em too with that many players, if possible.

PCF randomly directed me back to this thread today for some reason, and this made me think.

PLO8 with 11 players is really boring/annoying. Even if you have some looser players in the mix, the big-bet structure will often drill players down to nut hands that end up splitting their own money. The only really big, multi-way pots will be when there are 3 or 4 players who all have the nuts and/or redraws. Everyone else gets chased out because the bets get huge so fast.

LIMIT Omaha 8, on the other hand, plays pretty damn well with a lot of players, especially if there are a couple loosey-gooses in there. You almost don't even want to raise your big openers because letting more people see the flop means more people will catch second-best types of hands and call off a lot of bets. Easy money with low risk.

 

[Machine]

is if there are additional factors to consider when potentially a whole deck will be dealt out by the end of a hand?

Yes, consider anyone betting has the stone cold nuts, and if you have the low, its likely someone else does as well and you're dumping chips to the high hand.