PLO-8 hand - river decision

Frogzilla

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While I appreciate the engagement, I cannot appreciate the analysis in this thread. The low missed, all the cards are on the table, so the basics from holdem are completely applicable. Namely, it’s a polarized sizing so we can discount all the thin value.

Two days later of thinking, I am still leaning call. And I’m not one of those who will justify their own decisions by default, many times I wish I could play the hand differently on both winners and losers. Poker you simply don’t have enough time to think through spots you haven’t planned. Im fine if the 1 hour answer is different than the 20 second one. But I still feel like this is a hero-call spot
 

Rhodeman77

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@Frogzilla what flop texture were you looking for with this hand? Short of flopping trip Q’s a very lucky KJ10 there is not a flop where you can feel you have a strong chance to scoop the pot?

Any straight (or draw) you flop with 78 will mean a low is possible if you have the top end or a better straight is possible if you have the low end.

This hand is lucky to chop when it makes a high hand.
 

Frogzilla

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@Frogzilla what flop texture were you looking for with this hand? Short of flopping trip Q’s a very lucky KJ10 there is not a flop where you can feel you have a strong chance to scoop the pot?

Any straight (or draw) you flop with 78 will mean a low is possible if you have the top end or a better straight is possible if you have the low end.

This hand is lucky to chop when it makes a high hand.
Yea it’s not as strong pre as I thought. To be honest I thought it was a marginal hand, top 45% but it’s more like top 64%. I am on board with either letting this one go pre or limping then calling
 

Rhodeman77

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Is that because people just dont bluff? Or is it that no one makes the hero call?
I have seen AK/AQ win these hands at showdown. But that is when there was no river bet. It is definitely and under bluffed spot.

I have made Hero calls in this type of spot with JJ on occasion against LAG’s and sometimes I’m right, usually not. But I do it to make sure they aren’t over bluffing me. But any time I have been right, they still had a full house, just a worse one.
 

ruskba

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While I appreciate the engagement, I cannot appreciate the analysis in this thread. The low missed, all the cards are on the table, so the basics from holdem are completely applicable. Namely, it’s a polarized sizing so we can discount all the thin value.

Two days later of thinking, I am still leaning call. And I’m not one of those who will justify their own decisions by default, many times I wish I could play the hand differently on both winners and losers. Poker you simply don’t have enough time to think through spots you haven’t planned. Im fine if the 1 hour answer is different than the 20 second one. But I still feel like this is a hero-call spot
So you post to get everyone’s opinion, there’s a consensus, and your reaction is to just say everyone is wrong and you were right. Neat.

You also left out what you think your image is at the table. If villain knows you like to hero call, he can bet here with mediocre hands for value. Is it possible you got played like a fiddle?
 

TwoSevenOff

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While I appreciate the engagement, I cannot appreciate the analysis in this thread. The low missed, all the cards are on the table, so the basics from holdem are completely applicable. Namely, it’s a polarized sizing so we can discount all the thin value.

Two days later of thinking, I am still leaning call. And I’m not one of those who will justify their own decisions by default, many times I wish I could play the hand differently on both winners and losers. Poker you simply don’t have enough time to think through spots you haven’t planned. Im fine if the 1 hour answer is different than the 20 second one. But I still feel like this is a hero-call spot
Keep on making those hero calls in the future then and ignore the consensus advice.
 

Natskule

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You are trying to put him in a range that justifies a call, to emotional and not objective.

Fact is he could be bluffing, and still probably has you. He may be loose and aggressive but so are you, looks like he is playing you that way.

Based on your signature, I'd say you don't like to fold, but as Kenny Rogers said, "You've got to know when to fold them". Honestly I take more pride in my good folds than my good calls, as I think they are harder to do. Hard to laydown a good hand with a big pot that you've put a lot into, but I really hate blowing a bunch of chips when I know i'm beat and I'm just hoping I might have them beat. Hoping is a poor poker strategy.
 

ruskba

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And the fact that you say he saw every flop means he could have literally anything, right? Why are you ranging him so tight on missed draw/counterfeit K only?
 

DrStrange

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It is too bad we didn't get a chance to discuss the first three streets. For what it is worth I score it this way:
Preflop - "F+" At least it was a position raise, but oh-so misguided. I fault the call of the 3-bet as well. Hero has a below average hand that will be adrift after the flop almost all the time.
Flop - "A" Hero didn't make a stab into a pot where lots of villains will have a slow played duce. Hero has limited equity here, let's not dig the hole even deeper.
Turn - "B-" I can respect the idea behind a "small ball" semi-bluff. Hero bets 40% pot in the marginal hope everyone folds. Problem is, the low draws have enough perceived equity to call. Maybe Hero has a bluffing plan on a river brick for low?
River - "D" Hero is paying full price hoping villain is bluffing with worse than Hero's ace high. Oh boy, I'd need a solid villain read on this.

I wonder if villain was thinking "value bet" or "bluffing" with his full pot river bet? I am mindful hero was the last aggressor. What was villain's intention by leading into Hero? My guess is villain was bluffing and could barely hide his shock when he wins anyway.

I think Hero could reasonably have bluffed off his stack on the river. Lots of little pair hands will fold. But calling on the river seems dubious. < absent villain reads > Hero was getting 2-1 odds, but even that isn't enough to take the risk.

This hand is a good example of a "small" misstep preflop leads to a disaster by the river. If we had told Hero he was going to come close to being felted, tabling ace high after calling 125bb on the river, he likely wouldn't have believed it.

It is vital for players to know themselves. The less disciplined a player is deep in the hand, the more the have to "save themselves" by folding average hands preflop.

Please note I would feel the same way if villain has tabled "A5" and hero wins a big pot. I can respect a big river bluff. But I can't find good cause to be bluff catching with "no pair".

DrStrange
 

Frogzilla

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And the fact that you say he saw every flop means he could have literally anything, right? Why are you ranging him so tight on missed draw/counterfeit K only?
I meant that I thought those hands could comprise >34% of the range that take this line. His 3! range doesn’t have that many, but the flop, turn, and river actions discount other hand types while leaving these mostly intact. I’m shitty at actually breaking down omaha ranges (I don’t even know the odds for a pocket pair pre), and I’m receptive to someone breaking down what a more reasonable assumption for his bluff % here


And yes for your other post, villain certainly knows I have a penchant for calling. Plenty of history. Called me out for it a couple years ago as “ego related“ which wasnt fun to hear but first step is to acknowledge shortcomings so one can address them. His value bets still need to beat 50% of my call range though, so value betting something like 55 or 77 would be a disaster
 
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Rhodeman77

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I meant that I thought those hands could comprise >34% of the range that take this line. His 3! range doesn’t have that many, but the flop, turn, and river actions discount other hand types while leaving these mostly intact. I’m shitty at actually breaking down omaha ranges (I don’t even know the odds for a pocket pair pre), and I’m receptive to someone breaking down what a more reasonable assumption for his bluff % here


And yes for your other post, villain certainly knows I have a penchant for calling. Plenty of history. Called me out for it a couple years ago as “ego related“ which wasnt fun to hear but first step is to acknowledge shortcomings so one can address them. His value bets still need to beat 50% of my call range though, so value betting something like 66 would be a disaster
if your calling range includes AQ why wouldn’t he bet 66? Only quads and KK beat it.
 

joker80

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What percentage of total Omaha hands don’t have a pair in them? Even if he is bluffing, it’s a horrible bluffing spot because someone could call with a middling pair in their hand. The river bluff is that someone is representing quads, not that they just have a pair. I think a pair is a given
 

Frogzilla

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For those advocating river fold with AQ (literally everyone), what does your call range actually look like then?
 

DrStrange

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My calling range is very tight here without a solid, long term villain read.

I might fold pocket aces. I call with quads and over-full only (KK & 66). Not that I am ever going to be in this situation. Villain's actions sounds a lot like a slow played deuce or a bluff.

Players don't bluff here very often. Why? Because people don't fold their full houses. "HOW can I always lose in Omaha? My full house - FULL HOUSE - always get beaten." You all should know this player, if you aren't this player. The weak full house looks good enough to hold'em eyes.

Yes, you can exploit me by over bluffing here. I will let someone else be the sheriff -=- DrStrange
 

Rhodeman77

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Since you have a lot of history with this Villian it seems he
For those advocating river fold with AQ (literally everyone), what does your call range actually look like then?
it would depend on the player making the bet a lot. As I said before I have made Hero calls with JJ on a trips board. Sometimes it has been good, most of the time it has not. The more aggressive the player the slightly looser my calling range.

I recently folded AA on a JJXJX board. The Villain bet the turn into 2 people for pot and the river for 3/4 pot. I folded and he showed QQ. He thought he was value betting actually. I thought he was a tight/nit player so I gave him credit for the Jack. Now I know better. But AQ, and and pocket pair below 10's would have been no good.
 

upNdown

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I'm going to pile on. This was a terrible hand for PLO8. Terrible. Fold pre all day.
I've got some postflop moves here and there, but mostly they're based on situations and reads. If you've got mad chops and can rip it up post-flop, I guess that (with position) is the only reason for playing this hand. But I think the check on the flop suggests that isn't exactly what you were doing here.
 

Anthony Martino

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Tell me what you do in this river spot. $1/$2 PLO-8, fairly deep, and villain is extremely active. We played a 250 hand session and he might have seen all 250 flops. Fairly skilled and absolutely capable/willing to bluff

Preflop - 5 handed 1/2 PLO-8, 378 effective
HJ calls 2
CO calls 2
Hero (BU) raises :ac: :qs: :8s: :7h: to 10
SB calls 10
Villain (BB) raises to 44
HJ folds
CO calls 44
Hero calls
SB folds

This is a fold preflop. In Hi/Lo Omaha the absolute worst cards for your hand are 6's, 7's, 8's and 9's. Half your hand is made up of the worst cards in the deck for this game.

Couple that with your Ace being unsuited (you have a Queen high flush potential and even King high flush draws can be money burners since so many players are going to war with the suited Ace).

I wouldn't even cold-call preflop with this holding, let alone raise on the button with it. Now not only did you raise on the button with it, but you called a reraise with it!

Ok, you have position, that's all well and good. But your hand doesn't flop well enough to hope to scoop, which should be your goal. You don't want to be the guy getting his ass freerolled where someone has a made low and can outdraw your high hand for stacks.

Flop - 144, 3 players
:6s: :2d: :2h:
checks through
Yes, checking is good here, I would be giving up the hand.

Turn - 144, 3 players
:6s: :2d: :2h: :ks:
BB checks
CO checks
Hero bets 57
BB calls
CO folds
I guess I can respect you taking a stab at it, no one has shown any interest. Although if we were going to rep the flopped trips I would expect us to do it on the flop, so our turn bet has less believability. The King doesn't really change the board texture enough for our bet to be believable, what story are we telling? That we turned Kings full and we're hoping someone is slow playing three dueces? That we flopped quads and we're trying to get money in the pot?


River - 258, heads up
:6s: :2d: :2h: :ks: :2c:
BB bets 258
Hero ( :ac: :qs: :8s: :7h: )?

Villain reraised preflop, checked the flop, check-called our turn bet and bet massive on the river when the third 2 appeared. Generally this is going to be quad 2's, since the 2 is a common card for people to play in hi/lo Omaha.

Villains river bet is very polarizing, or it SHOULD be, but given you and Villain are wild cards in this game, who really knows? But that bet should either be a monster or a bluff. So I get what you're saying that your AQ may be the best hand if Villain was in there with some monster low wrap that whiffed. I guess I just prefer to be in positions where I've got my opponent crushed but they can't help themselves to stack off to me, rather than make Hero calls hoping we're good.
 

Frogzilla

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This is a fold preflop. In Hi/Lo Omaha the absolute worst cards for your hand are 6's, 7's, 8's and 9's. Half your hand is made up of the worst cards in the deck for this game.

Couple that with your Ace being unsuited (you have a Queen high flush potential and even King high flush draws can be money burners since so many players are going to war with the suited Ace).

I wouldn't even cold-call preflop with this holding, let alone raise on the button with it. Now not only did you raise on the button with it, but you called a reraise with it!

Ok, you have position, that's all well and good. But your hand doesn't flop well enough to hope to scoop, which should be your goal. You don't want to be the guy getting his ass freerolled where someone has a made low and can outdraw your high hand for stacks.



Yes, checking is good here, I would be giving up the hand.



I guess I can respect you taking a stab at it, no one has shown any interest. Although if we were going to rep the flopped trips I would expect us to do it on the flop, so our turn bet has less believability. The King doesn't really change the board texture enough for our bet to be believable, what story are we telling? That we turned Kings full and we're hoping someone is slow playing three dueces? That we flopped quads and we're trying to get money in the pot?





Villain reraised preflop, checked the flop, check-called our turn bet and bet massive on the river when the third 2 appeared. Generally this is going to be quad 2's, since the 2 is a common card for people to play in hi/lo Omaha.

Villains river bet is very polarizing, or it SHOULD be, but given you and Villain are wild cards in this game, who really knows? But that bet should either be a monster or a bluff. So I get what you're saying that your AQ may be the best hand if Villain was in there with some monster low wrap that whiffed. I guess I just prefer to be in positions where I've got my opponent crushed but they can't help themselves to stack off to me, rather than make Hero calls hoping we're good.
that’s good advice with the 6789. I will incorporate. No more AQ87 for me. The preflop is weird phrasing though (“I wouldn’t cold call let alone raise pre”).. the raise pre range has some opens that are too weak to call. You are probably playing too linear pre
 

BarrieJ3

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I play every single hand. BIG O and PLO-8 - I can with 90% certainty say that I had the highest VPIP in all the weeks I played here and elsewhere online during Covide when I was playing.

I'd find a fold pre. Even if I tried taking out a couple limpers pre with a strange raise (I do this, I'm not good), there's no way I'm following two players at 44 with almost no dead $ in the middle and me from the start playing for half the pot. The best case I'd be hoping for is a super dry board and checking through so that they see my cards and keep up the image of me being off my rocker.
 

Legend5555

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I've played more POO8 and Big O than standard PLO. And in my experience (even with people that play like 50%+ vpip), most people almost never bluff in PLO8 and Big O. I think looking to make hero calls in these games is generally asking for disaster without A LOT of history.

My 2 cents from someone who doesn't play these games a ton.

And as everyone has said AQ87 (without a suited A to boot) is trash in PLO8. You can get away with this hand as a late pos opener in limit O8. But in big bet, you are just asking for trouble.
 
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Rhodeman77

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that’s good advice with the 6789. I will incorporate. No more AQ87 for me. The preflop is weird phrasing though (“I wouldn’t cold call let alone raise pre”).. the raise pre range has some opens that are too weak to call. You are probably playing too linear pre
7,8, & 9’s are the worst cards in the deck. The 6 is actually a valuable card when you play strong hands like A26X because a lot of the time there will be a wheel possible on the board which a strong 2 way hand obviously. But if you hold a 6 in your hand you can make a bigger straight than the wheel and potentially get 3/4 of the pot from someone only playing the wheel.

This happens a lot with inexperienced players that will stack of with a wheel thinking they can’t lose money with the nut low and a straight!
 
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