Are you getting away from this NL50 hand? (1 Viewer)

ngmcs8203

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Location
Bay Area, California
Bovada / Ignition, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 4 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

Seat 3 (UTG): $54.23 (108 bb)
Seat 5 (BU): $64.82 (130 bb)
Seat 6 (SB): $42.90 (86 bb)
Hero (BB): $57.56 (115 bb)


Pre-Flop:
($0.75) Hero (Hero) is BB with Q 9
1 fold, Seat 5 (BU) calls $0.50, Seat 6 (SB) raises to $1, Hero (BB) calls $0.50, Seat 5 (BU) calls $0.50

Flop: ($3) 9 Q J (3 players)
Seat 6 (SB) checks, Hero (BB) bets $0.90, Seat 5 (BU) calls $0.90, Seat 6 (SB) calls $0.90

Turn: ($5.70) 5 (3 players)
Seat 6 (SB) checks, Hero (BB) checks, Seat 5 (BU) bets $2, Seat 6 (SB) calls $2, Hero (BB) calls $2

River:
($11.70) Q (3 players)
Seat 6 (SB) checks, Hero (BB) bets $5.55, Seat 5 (BU) folds, Seat 6 (SB) raises to $11.98, Hero (BB) raises to $53.66 (all-in), Seat 6 (SB) calls $27.02 (all-in)

Total pot: $89.70 (Rake: $3)


Showdown:
Hero (BB) shows Q 9 (a full house, Queens full of Nines)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 27%, Flop: 11%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

Seat 6 (SB) shows Q J (a full house, Queens full of Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 73%, Flop: 89%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

Seat 6 (SB) wins $86.70
 
I even said to myself “I am about to lose to 3 combos” before I shoved.
Why did you say that to yourself? The river lead was interesting, were you trying to get value from AQ? What do you picture them raising with?

You just lose here, setup. This depth I'm gone. 1000 BBs there's a chance I raise and he reraises and maybe I escape, but eh.
 
You can maybe get away for the $12 on the river if you know your player well enough to just call (i.e., you know he's only calling a shove with at least Q9, so shoving is always net negative).

But against a random opponent or a player who will make that raise and then call the shove with a good number of hands you beat, the shove is fine. Sometimes you'll get snapped off by QJ, but many more times you'll get called by something less.
 
Why did you say that to yourself? The river lead was interesting, were you trying to get value from AQ? What do you picture them raising with?

You just lose here, setup. This depth I'm gone. 1000 BBs there's a chance I raise and he reraises and maybe I escape, but eh.
Yes. AA, KK, JJ, AQ, KQ and QJs is what I was expecting to see here. Hey had only played 35 hands and got involved in 6. This was the first one he RFI'd.

I have removal to a few suited Q combos so I was pretty confident I wanted to get it in against his range. If I throw 99 and QJo into his range, I have 60% equity on the turn and 90% equity on the river. I think simply calling his river bet is a worse play than getting it in. I'm going to see what the wizard says.
 
Wizard (I have the free one now so can't node lock or do multiway) has me betting 2/3 on the flop instead of 1/3. Flop should go check/check (which the button ruined, but let's pretend that happened). River I am supposed to bet 66% or 150%. When he clicks it back I am supposed to shove 62% of the time with my combo, raise to 80% pot 28% of the time and 43% pot the rest of the time. Call or fold is never supposed to happen.

Generally, I'm glad I wasn't too far off on how to play it.
 
No way we’re getting away from this but I think I would bet the turn with 2 others still in the hand. Lucky BTN bet for us but if they check, there are a ton of cards we will not be happy with on the river.
 
No way we’re getting away from this but I think I would bet the turn with 2 others still in the hand. Lucky BTN bet for us but if they check, there are a ton of cards we will not be happy with on the river.
Yea I wish I could see how the solver plays that in middle position between two opponents in a SRP
 
war football GIF
 

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