So I've been getting back into online PLO after several years, now playing PLO20/PLO50/PLO100 with probably close to 40k hands in the last few months. Maybe it would be fun to post some hands every now and then? Let's see how this one goes.
Hero in SB (124.15bb after posting small blind)
BB (112.2bb after posting big blind)
UTG (111.85bb) opens to 3.5bb
HJ (123.05bb) folds
CO (113.35bb) folds
BTN (143bb) calls 3.5bb
Hero has been dealt
and action is on him with 8.5bb in the pot. What to do here?
We're OOP and if our opponent has a pair in their hand higher than 9's (which is likely) then that's not great for us. We'd rather have T987 or JT98 than being paired in that spot.
Nevertheless, we have a hand that blocks/hits a large chunk of straights, so this is a clear call for me.
For me this spot is always a call. So, hero calls and BB also calls.
Flop is
and the pot is 14bb. We are first to act with three players behind us.
Hero in SB (121.15bb) with
BB (109.7bb)
UTG (108.35bb)
BTN (139.5bb)
Check or bet?
We've flopped bottom set (a money burner in PLO, this isn't hold em) and an open-ended straight draw which only has 3 clean outs to the nuts (non club 7's) and we're in a multi-way pot OOP with an extremely wet board. Even if we are ahead here, there's not a lot of great turn cards. We're going to be flying blind praying that any club, board pair or broadway card didn't just lose us the pot. The only board pair we feel safe with is another 9, because you can easily run into AA, JJ or AJ in this spot multiway.
Even "good" cards that don't bring in the draws can be bad (i.e. if our opponent does have top set and we now feel safe with our bottom set because a deuce hit the turn)
With a very low SPR I would be committed to the pot and just looking to get the money in, that's not the case here. While our direct outs are not plentiful against AAxx/JJxx, there is a very good chance we have the best hand right now. But many draws have good equity and we are OOP. I'm hoping to keep the pot small, see what the turn brings and re-evaluate.
Hero checks
BB checks
UTG bets 11bb
BTN folds
Hero calls
BB folds
Turn card arrives, the board now reads
and there is 36bb in the pot. We are HU and first to act.
Hero in SB (110.15bb)
UTG (97.35bb)
Check or bet?
Agree if the SPR is low it's fine to go with it here. But, that's not the case, so I'm still checking and evaluating.
Continuing the turn action.
Board is
with 36bb in the pot, hero holding
Hero (110.15bb) checks
UTG (97.35b) bets 35bb
At this point we have quite a lot of information from UTG based on multiple streets, and I would put him on a fairly tight range. I think that range is mainly AAxx, JJxx, and AJxx with nut club draw. Note that JJxx is far less likely than AAxx, because most JJxx combinations would be folded in UTG preflop and all AAxx hands played. Not sure about how many AJxx with nut club draw hands there would be in comparison to the sets. There is a slight chance villain could have a monster draw like
, but it's such a small part of his range (we block
) I don't think it matters much.
So we have the remaining
and
as nut outs, non-nut outs consist of hearts except the
and
, which I would expect to win at showdown most of the time. Folding against any A or J on the river of course. If the river is a club and villain bets we just fold against his range, the exception would be
, on that we can just get stacks in. On total blanks I expect we will lose our stack to sets but double up against top2, maybe that's ok. If we want to add some bluff outs to donk on the river,
would make sense.
What do you think? Enough to call, or should hero fold and live to fight another day? Or get it in now and hope for the best?
So we've picked up a backdoor heart draw, which may be good IF it hits. I don't think UTG is showing up with a JJxx holding, I agree AAxx is far more likely, especially as played.
Our villain is betting roughly the pot. To me that screams more of an AAxx hand that is trying to charge/price out draws because there are a lot of bad river cards that can outdraw his hand.
If he had some kind of monster I would expect his bet would be more to pull you in than to push you out.
So there's now 71bb in the pot. We're getting 2:1 on a call here, so need to win roughly a third of the time. IF our flush and straight outs are clean (against a hand like AA32 suited in spades and diamonds so just the set of Aces) we have 37.5% equity, so mathematically it's a call.
However, we can also run into spots where he has AAKQ with two hearts in his hand, and in that spot we're down to 17.5% equity.
Even AAKT with no suits has us at 27.5% equity. If he has AAQ7 with clubs (i.e. blocking some of our straight outs) we're at the 32.5% equity mark, so almost just enough to be breakeven.
Granted there's some implied equity of getting his stack when we hit, as we'll still have 62bb left to play for going to the river if we call.
I just feel like Villains range here is going to be neutral or negative EV for us more often than plus EV. I think I'm sigh-folding to his turn bet unfortunately.
IF we were in position on the button and didn't have to act first on the river, maybe you can make the call?
