JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I probably did underestimate the min-click because I cannot imagine what villian has here that would shove over that. We are pretty confident he isn't opening QT preflop, he could very well have aces-up himself so that would be the only risk, but I still don't see aces-up making an overshove here.I like a call or a min click to $20 to try and get a little more value.
But villain betting the river does have the feel of "the turn got checked and I have AQ, may as well try for value in case 'hero' as a lesser ace, especially with missed diamonds."
In short if you do raise, this sizing is better for targeting the rather specific range we beat, but extra risky, especially if we think villian's bet means aces-up more than it means one-pair.
It's a riskier play than calling, but I think there would be a solid justification.