PAHWM: .25/.50 KJs tough spot? Or easy? (1 Viewer)

[JustinInMN]

I like a call or a min click to $20 to try and get a little more value.

I probably did underestimate the min-click because I cannot imagine what villian has here that would shove over that. We are pretty confident he isn't opening QT preflop, he could very well have aces-up himself so that would be the only risk, but I still don't see aces-up making an overshove here.

But villain betting the river does have the feel of "the turn got checked and I have AQ, may as well try for value in case 'hero' as a lesser ace, especially with missed diamonds."

In short if you do raise, this sizing is better for targeting the rather specific range we beat, but extra risky, especially if we think villian's bet means aces-up more than it means one-pair.

It's a riskier play than calling, but I think there would be a solid justification.

 

[tabletalker7]

Villain 1 is the guy I have been worried about the whole way. He played this hand exactly how I would have played AK in this situation. I think hero is dead, and the tiny little bet on the river is exactly what I would have done to get hero to play back at me. Raising cannot be an option here - I have been on both ends of this hot mess too many times. If hero believes in his hand then call (hey compared to the rest of this hand this bet is cheap). I would be folding.

 

[boltonguy]

I cannot possibly fold to this sizing - that is too exploitable IMHO.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Just call the $10. No sense in reopening the betting here.

 

[Eriks]

No, no, no this can never be a fold. If he arrived at the river this way with AK he’s earned at least $10. Question is call, click it back or shove imo

 

[boltonguy]

I'm probably calling (lower variance) but the majority wanted to jam turn - this is a blank so why the hesitation to raise/jam?

 

[msuroo]

I'm probably calling (lower variance) but the majority wanted to jam turn - this is a blank so why the hesitation to raise/jam?

BC jamming was targeting draws. Now that the draws have busted, there are very few worse hands that will call (and no better hands that will fold).

 

[Legend5555]

Villain 1 is the guy I have been worried about the whole way. He played this hand exactly how I would have played AK in this situation. I think hero is dead, and the tiny little bet on the river is exactly what I would have done to get hero to play back at me. Raising cannot be an option here - I have been on both ends of this hot mess too many times. If hero believes in his hand then call (hey compared to the rest of this hand this bet is cheap). I would be folding.

I'm trying really hard to take you seriously. But you make it really difficult to do so when you say to fold getting 10 to 1 vs a villain I've explained does a lot of block betting and has shown no aggression prior to this point in the hand.

 

[power13]

You said he makes these block bets a lot. With only one opponent and getting crazy odds I think you can't fold. There is too much spaz or him value betting with worse here. Your tank check on the turn could have him really confused, even though it was unintentional. Sure you could be beat but his line is so strange with a hand that's beating you. AJ is probably the most likely hand that's beating you but given the pot odds this is a snap call to me. I don't believe I'd jam over him since you're probably putting yourself in a scenario where he's more likely to fold worse and call better.

 

[JustinInMN]

Villain 1 is the guy I have been worried about the whole way. He played this hand exactly how I would have played AK in this situation. I think hero is dead, and the tiny little bet on the river is exactly what I would have done to get hero to play back at me. Raising cannot be an option here - I have been on both ends of this hot mess too many times. If hero believes in his hand then call (hey compared to the rest of this hand this bet is cheap). I would be folding.

It's $10 to win $108! We can lose this pot 92% of the time and still show a profit on the call. He's going to have holdings we can beat (AQ, AT, rando missed diamonds) more than 8% of the time absent a soul read. (And I would argue no read is 92% reliable online.)

We really think villain has checked aces up on the two previous streets now on a very wet board against two opponents? Maybe some part of the time. But I wouldn't be 92% certain of it. I think villian is going for thin value here because hero under-repped his hand on the turn. He's pricing low to win a call from the weakest of aces. Maybe he's ahead of kings up somehow some portion of the time, (Maybe he has or for example, even though that would mean villain's opening requirements are looser than we expected. Otherwise he played AJ really carefully for fear of being against AK) but I am never going to be 92% certain of that.

This is a call. MAYBE it's a small raise as @boltonguy pointed out. (The more I think about it, the more that depends on the read that villain would bet one-pair here ever or if he only has rando-bluffs and little value that he checked twice.)

 

[Frogzilla]

Late to the party but strongly considering jamming flop, AK flops are amazing for three bettor. We block Kx Jx that call the smaller sizing and unblock Ax that sigh call. Sometime no limit can be played with no limit

 

[Josh Kifer]

10 bucks for 108? Ya call and accept the damage if your beat. Zero reason to raise, as you arnt going to push off hands that beat ya. Accept the results and hope that he had K8 or a mid Ace pair.

 

[JustinInMN]

So some thoughts from villians perspective.

If Villain has the best hand here, he either somehow outdrew us on the turn or river, or he has played this in a manner in which he has assured himself the least possible amount of value from us as hero.

Give the guy the $10, he should have stacked us if he flopped aces-up or better.

 

[JustinInMN]

Zero reason to raise, as you arnt going to push off hands that beat ya.

We could get paid off by AQ or AT for a small raise here, especially if we assume villain couldn't have aces up having checked flop and turn.

 

[Josh Kifer]

We could get paid off by AQ or AT for a small raise here, especially if we assume villain couldn't have aces up having checked flop and turn.

That wet of a board with a player calling down, if I get reraised on the river, I'm going to assume he slow played it and prob gonna find a way to fold. You might find a call, but the show of strength on the river with two blank cards isn't going to make me feel happy with a single pair. It's going to scream "I had Q10 you fool!"

Saying that, this does scream AK to me. But the money is too good to just give up on.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm probably calling (lower variance) but the majority wanted to jam turn - this is a blank so why the hesitation to raise/jam?

One other reply mentioned that draws are all busted now. That's one major factor.

The other major factor is that this bet changes the dynamic. Even though it's a small bet, V1 has unexpectedly bet out on the river, signifying some potential strength that we didn't see before.

Maybe he has a bare pair of aces or a weak two pair and wants to go to showdown cheaply. Maybe he's had the straight the whole time and is hoping his tiny bet will induce a raise. Maybe it's a silly attempt at a bluff after he busted a draw. But one thing is for sure: there are very few hands that KJ beats that will call a raise, and thus reopening the action has very little value and only serves to expose Hero to the possibility of getting blown off the hand when he could have had a $10 showdown.

KJ is not a value hand on this river. It's more like a crying-call kind of hand. The $10 bet is a gift. Accept it.

 

[Senzrock]

River is an annoying call. Not annoying because you are losing (I bet you are winning way more than losing by the river here unless opponents Ax got there), but annoying because you missed out on additional value on the turn. Kids = money drains lol.

Fun hand, and for what it's worth, with a loose player opening the action, I lean slightly more towards 3b pre, I like a ~$15 flop bet to fold out gutshots but keep inferior hands in, to allow us to still fold to a shove if we need to etc. Turn is probably just a jam. It's not a fist pump spot but given the action and the stack-to-pot ratio, if you don't feel comfortable jamming the turn, you are probably playing above your bankroll. Just a cooler if you are behind here given action and player profiles.

To those who advised to fold this hand at any point... where do you guys play and can I be invited??

 

[JustinInMN]

That wet of a board with a player calling down, if I get reraised on the river, I'm going to assume he slow played it and prob gonna find a way to fold. You might find a call, but the show of strength on the river with two blank cards isn't going to make me feel happy with a single pair. It's going to scream "I had Q10 you fool!"

Saying that, this does scream AK to me. But the money is too good to just give up on.

All time great game show moment!

 

[Josh Kifer]

All time great game show moment!

I might post the same videos over and over. But they are damn good videos.... Hahaha

 

[Schmendr1ck]

Then the 5yo enters the room when he is supposed to be in bed to ask me something nonsensical.

FWIW, my 12 year old still does this.

 

[Schmendr1ck]

I'm just calling here for the same reasons that others in the thread have stated. I can get behind a min-click too if you're willing to fold to a shove, but I like the lower risk route of a call.

 

[cfowl23]

Calling. And onto the next hand for you to exploit a better outcome.

 

[JustinInMN]

FWIW, my 12 year old still does this.

Amazing to think this version of Hollywood Squares is about 20 years old now.

 

[Legend5555]

Conclusion:

I call thinking it's pretty hard to get paid off by worse. I never really considered a min raise... Interesting idea.

VILLAIN 1 turns over . HERO wins a nice pot.

VILLAIN 2 comments that he folded an A. Which is baffling if true.

So looks like I may have actually gotten almost max value given the exact hands.

 

[JustinInMN]

Late to the party but strongly considering jamming flop, AK flops are amazing for three bettor. We block Kx Jx that call the smaller sizing and unblock Ax that sigh call. Sometime no limit can be played with no limit

The case for jamming is that the pot is pretty substantial preflop and perhaps worth protecting even from flush draws. The downside is I think it makes Ax pretty much have to fold, which is the hand we want to call the most, and if Ax doesn't call, we are generally only going to be called in situations when we are crushed. (Though maybe it's possible to bluff AJ out?)

I think Villian came up with the right sizing on the flop.

 

[Eriks]

Wait a minute, he opened and called a 3b oop w QJo, called your continuation bet with villain 2 to act behind and then bet his third pair into two ppl on the river? May I be invited to your game?

 

[JustinInMN]

Conclusion:

I call thinking it's pretty hard to get paid off by worse. I never really considered a min raise... Interesting idea.

VILLAIN 1 turns over . HERO wins a nice pot.

VILLAIN 2 comments that he folded an A. Which is baffling if true.

So looks like I may have actually gotten almost max value given the exact hands.

Interesting, so he decided to try and turn a Jack into a bluff and he's opening QJo? So maybe in villain's mind he's trying to get you to lay down KQ or KT (if that's in your 3-betting range) or other missed diamonds. I probably would have gone for a sizing of more like 30-40 if I were going to make this play to at least make the aces think about it, and given the action an ace seems hero's most likely holding.

Yeah you probably would have lost both players by jamming the flop, but maybe not if V2 had the flush draw.

I also found the min-raise interesting, but reopening the action is risky as so many people have documented, but if you think villain is capped at one pair, maybe it's worth it and the right price to get crying calls.

But fabulous hand, thank you for sharing, we'll never know if the misclick really cost you without knowing what V2 would have done against a shove.

One thing is obvious, folding this river would have been a disaster.

 

[Eriks]

Interesting, so he decided to try and turn a Jack into a bluff and he's opening QJo? So maybe in villain's mind he's trying to get you to lay down KQ or KT (if that's in your 3-betting range) or other missed diamonds. I probably would have gone for a sizing of more like 30-40 if I were going to make this play to at least make the aces think about it, and given the action an ace seems hero's most likely holding.

Yeah you probably would have lost both players by jamming the flop, but maybe not if V2 had the flush draw.

I also found the min-raise interesting, but reopening the action is risky as so many people have documented, but if you think villain is capped at one pair, maybe it's worth it and the right price to get crying calls.

But fabulous hand, thank you for sharing, we'll never know if the misclick really cost you without knowing what V2 would have done against a shove.

One thing is obvious, folding this river would have been a disaster.

Yes, awesome hand! Thanks for posting

 

[Schmendr1ck]

VILLAIN 1 turns over . HERO wins a nice pot.

WTAF? Wow.

VILLAIN 2 comments that he folded an A. Which is baffling if true.

Maybe AQ or AcXc? That's about all that makes sense to me given the way he played the hand.

So looks like I may have actually gotten almost max value given the exact hands.

Yeah, I still think the turn shove would have been a better way to go, but your accidental check got you an extra ten bucks so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

 

[JStew]

That 5yo deserves some ice cream.