Hand Analysis - Before it Airs (1 Viewer)

Windwalker

Windwalker

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Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).

:7h::7s:

Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

Hero?
 
Last edited:
How much is BTN up or down for the session? Villain has you covered(?) if you were at ~$495k and raises to $3k and he reraises to $20k and has $475k behind?

If it were me, I'd hope I wouldn't do an ill-timed donkey bluff. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: I'd call and set mine, hoping to spike a 7, or I'd fold and then survive one more hand and be ecstatic to be up ~$240k. But obviously I am not rolled for these stakes.
 
I waffle between calling and folding in this spot. Honestly it depends on how spicy I'm feeling that day. Definitely not raising here with HJ still a wild card here. He could cold four bet and save you a lot of money if you don't raise.

Hero's range here as a tight, aggressive player would seem to be pretty capped here to mostly high pocket pairs, AK, and maybe suited Broadway cards. You could check/raise a flop that favors your range and take a stab at it. Otherwise you're pretty much set mining here, which if you smash the flop, you're going in really underrepped relative to your perceived range.
 
TheOffalo said:
How much is BTN up or down for the session? Villain has you covered(?) if you were at ~$495k and raises to $3k and he reraises to $20k and has $475k behind?

If it were me, I'd hope I wouldn't do an ill-timed donkey bluff. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO: I'd call and set mine, hoping to spike a 7, or I'd fold and then survive one more hand and be ecstatic to be up ~$240k. But obviously I am not rolled for these stakes.
Click to expand...

I updated the OP. BTN started with $300k, and is up just under $200k.
 
Names might help. IP 3 bet is surprisingly big. 77 is strong but might be a fold for that size. Seems close to a call this deep. GL

Nice thing for this strat thread is we could get the commentary with the pro opinions
 
Hard for me to ignore the raw numbers, but based on blinds and stacks, I think I probably just call here since the day is almost over, but I like a fold too. Clearly hero doesn't fold or we wouldn't be discussing it lol. Either way, I'm definitely not 3-betting, but maybe I'm soft.
 
Likely folding here to that huge 3bet to be honest, but also dont mind a call. Its just not gonna be an easy hand to play after the flop most of the time, out of position in a $50k pot. Likely with one or more overcards in the flop.. having to hero call 2 or 3 streets to realize your equity is not very tempting. Especially since you are often behind as well, obviously. If you flop a 7 you might win a big pot of course.
 
It's either a fold or raise to around 48k for me. I'm working of the assumption that HJ is folding, if you feel they would call or raise then I would fold. Also working on assumption that button is re raising you again from here and I would then be shoving on them. If they shove first then I'm folding. Could always flat it but then I would just be playing to hit my set and folding to anything else after, try to take it down. If they flat the £48k then I'm shoving any low to mid flops, raising a set to $50 - $60k to try and entice a shove and same bet on high flops then fold to a re raise. I play pretty aggressive and there are a few better cash players out there than me!. I don't often play at these kind of stakes as well but I'm taking the money out of the equation, if your playing at these stakes you should still be playing your game...
 
Easylife said:
It's either a fold or raise to around 48k for me. I'm working of the assumption that HJ is folding, if you feel they would call or raise then I would fold. Also working on assumption that button is re raising you again from here and I would then be shoving on them. If they shove first then I'm folding. Could always flat it but then I would just be playing to hit my set and folding to anything else after, try to take it down. If they flat the £48k then I'm shoving any low to mid flops, raising a set to $50 - $60k to try and entice a shove and same bet on high flops then fold to a re raise. I play pretty aggressive and there are a few better cash players out there than me!. I don't often play at these kind of stakes as well but I'm taking the money out of the equation, if your playing at these stakes you should still be playing your game...
Click to expand...
This is exactly why I actually think that a three bet here could be a disaster. If HJ cold four bets and button calls or shoves, or if button four bets after a HJ call, you're pot committed in a bad situation with a strong, but not super strong hand out of position. A flat call leaves decent fold equity on an unfavorable flop or a four bet or shove from the players still to act behind.
 
Windwalker said:
Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).

:7h::7s:

Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

Hero?
Click to expand...
Nice of you to post something we don't see every day here in the microstakes strat forum :)

My understanding is that HSP and nosebleed stakes in general are a completely different game than lower stakes. According to @Bmeister51, the player pool is so small that these games are more of a leveling war than they tend to be at the stakes most of us play. Even if someone is crushing $2-5 or $5-10NL, that experience just doesn't translate to a game like the one you're in.

As to the hand, 77 doesn't play well OOP in a multiway pot when you're 500BBs deep. Even set-mining seems like it's -EV since you've got a landmine in the MP player who is 100% capable of 4-betting instead of calling to close the action. And if the button 5-bets you're going to piss away $20k and still have to fold without seeing the flop.

Furthermore, even if you do manage to get to the flop (relatively) cheaply and you do spike a set, getting paid off from these guys while OOP seems like it could be difficult.

So at the stakes and stack-depth I (and most of us) play, this is a call. But in your situation, I'm probably going to advocate a fold here just because a lot of things have to go right in order to drag this pot.

@DrStrange curious as to your perspective.
 
All good stuff. Ok, continuing...
-----

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).

:7h::7s:

Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is :5c::6d::6s:.

Hero is first to act. Hero?
 
Windwalker said:
All good stuff. Ok, continuing...
-----

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).

:7h::7s:

Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is :5c::6d::6s:.

Hero is first to act. Hero?
Click to expand...
I'd lead out for about $25 to $30k here, personally.
 
Lol and this flop is why I would have folded.

But now w that flop, I’m either checking for a free card or to check raise to take it down…

Do you guys know when ur done playing? Or this was your second to last hand?
 
Windwalker said:
It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is :5c::6d::6s:.

Hero is first to act. Hero?
Click to expand...

Favorable flop for sure. Knowing nothing about the Villain's playing style or propensity for tricky plays, I'm checking. Leading out is tempting, but what's the plan if he raises? Can 77 stand that much pressure?

What is HERO's table image with respect to flops like this? Will a check/call line induce respect on the turn? Will Villain barrel 3 streets with air?

HERO holds the best hand often enough to justify calling at least once. But the likely c-bet on the flop isn't what concerns me - it's how much HERO is going to have to call off on subsequent streets with just a pair of sevens.

Same concern with a check/raise line. What do you do on future streets if Villain continues?
 
Windwalker said:
This is the second last hand of the day. They drew for hands, and we drew 7. This was hand #6.
Click to expand...

Ugh I’m awful in these situations lol creates action. I probably fold preflop. If hero was in better position def a call or raise.
 
This is fun but don’t rush through the hand too fast.

Back to preflop I think stacks are plenty deep to set mine. Garrett is known to raise aggressively and his polarized sizing is perfect to set mine against. I’d much prefer 77 here compared to KQ or AQ.

I agree with the call.

Moxie Mike said:
My understanding is that HSP and nosebleed stakes in general are a completely different game than lower stakes. According to @Bmeister51, the player pool is so small that these games are more of a leveling war than they tend to be at the stakes most of us play. Even if someone is crushing $2-5 or $5-10NL, that experience just doesn't translate to a game like the one you're in.
Click to expand...
I don’t buy the whole “this game plays different” thing, but a lot of people say it. I see the same crap at all stakes, at least based on blogs and streaming I consume. The familiarity of players with each other is what causes leveling battles and that can happen at any stakes.
 
After the hands you’ve shown down at the end of a session previously, and they most likely have seen those hands, someone who cares about the money is very strong pre when they make an unusually large raise here. Maybe they didn’t see it. Maybe they don’t care about money. But even if not it’s not like this is a slam dunk call pre. I’d fold but with 2 hands left and a thirst for action your hands were tied.

I’d consider check/calling a small flop bet, but this along with maybe AK is roughly the bottom of your floats and should be check/folded on later streets. Unless you pick up some weird equity. Which I’m guessing you did. Was the turn a 4 and you check/raised and got him to fold a bigger pair?
 
So hard for me to get my head around these monetary values but if I compare them percentage wise to a game more my speed, I check call here and see at least another card.

This is a relatively great flop for your hand but I'm not confident we're not already crushed preflop
 
Windwalker said:
Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).

:7h::7s:

Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

Hero?
Click to expand...
I won’t chime in lol :x
 
Strong move is to check raise and if I get reraised would be a great move by villain representing an over pair. If checked back I’d be representing an over pair or better regardless of turn and bet out. Can’t play 77 scared at this point imo and go for the pot!!
 
I don't watch these guys enough to pretend to know how they play, but if I divide everything by a thousand, we are playing .5/1, which I am comfortable with....

-Love the lead pre to a standard amount
-the massive raise is a red flag, but against a player known to be tricky, I can get behind a call. Against many players, I just fold 77 here. UTG, my range will be strong. This means 3 betting me will be a sign of strength. Maybe Kenney (same last name as me!) uses this to his advantage...I don't know. However, in real world games 77 is pretty low in my UTG opening range, so folding here is probably the best play.
-flop is about as good as it gets. Heavily favors our range. I really like a check raise here. A smart player will realize this and check back this flop, which gives warrant to a donk bet.

I like a check lead, followed but either a check raise (fold if we get raised), or a lead bet on any turn card lower than a J.

That's my play here.
 
I actually don’t think hj 4bets that often preflop because everything he would do that with he would’ve just 3bet with. So I like the call.

Yeah. Flop I would c/c as well.

I like where we are.
 

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