An interesting NLHE hand in a $200/$400/$400 ante game (4 Viewers)

[horseshoez]

.

 

[Windwalker]

Conclusion:

$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.

Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.

Hero in CO looks down at .

Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.

Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.

Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.

Pot now is $7000.

Flop is



Villain bets out $5000.

Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said, or are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.

Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.

Turn is .

Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.

A few things to consider here for Hero.

The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.

Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.

River is .

Villain bets $17,500.

So, we've obviously hit the second best board we could with our hand (Ac, 2c, 5c or 2c, 5c, 6c would be better), and we are going to raise. Our analysis for how much to raise is predicated on what we think Villain is putting us on. We called the pre flop raise, the flop AND the turn. What could we have here? Clearly a flush. Villain's perception of hero includes propensity for outrageous bluffs, both publicly and in the current game. That perception could allow us to make a pretty substantial raise and then get called down with AcAx, or AcKx.

Villain could also put us on 8c9c, which is a reasonable hand for us to have in the cutoff, and justifies most of the ways in which Hero has played the hand. A minraise could signal smaller flushes from Kc to Qc and induce a shove.

Only hand that beats us is 8c9c, and we have to consider how often someone as tight as Villain would hold those. Our read is that scenario is not likely, and we need to go with that instinct. Which means, we need to induce a shove with Ac, which we are putting him on at this point. Virtually anything else will fold to any sort of raise.

Hero raises to $67,500.

Villain tanks. For what seems like a very long time. It was probably around 4 minutes.

Villain re-raises to $150,000.

Hero reluctantly snap calls. Pot is now $325,400.

Villain turns over .



Main Question: (Yes, a pre-fold would have been best, but this question is beyond that.)

- Would a raise on the flop have taken it down?

 

[Skagglio]

Conclusion:

$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.

Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.

Hero in CO looks down at .

Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.

Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.

Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.

Pot now is $7000.

Flop is



Villain bets out $5000.

Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said, or are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.

Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.

Turn is .

Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.

A few things to consider here for Hero.

The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.

Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.

River is .

Villain bets $17,500.

So, we've obviously hit the second best board we could with our hand (Ac, 2c, 5c or 2c, 5c, 6c would be better), and we are going to raise. Our analysis for how much to raise is predicated on what we think Villain is putting us on. We called the pre flop raise, the flop AND the turn. What could we have here? Clearly a flush. Villain's perception of hero includes propensity for outrageous bluffs, both publicly and in the current game. That perception could allow us to make a pretty substantial raise and then get called down with AcAx, or AcKx.

Villain could also put us on 8c9c, which is a reasonable hand for me to have in the cutoff, and justifies most of the ways in which Hero has played the hand. A minraise could signal smaller flushes from Kc to Qc and induce a shove.

Only hand that beats us is 8c9c, and we have to consider how often someone as tight as Villain would hold those. Our read is that scenario is not likely, and we need to go with that instinct. Which means, we need to induce a shove with Ac, which we are putting him on at this point. Virtually anything else will fold to any sort of raise.

Hero raises to $67,500.

Villain tanks. For what seems like a very long time. It was probably around 4 minutes.

Villain re-raises to $150,000.

Hero reluctantly snap calls. Pot is now $325,400.

Villain turns over .



Main Question: (Yes, a pre-fold would have been best, but these questions are beyond that.)

- Would a raise on the flop have taken it down?

There is nothing you can do imo. You are both getting drawn in for the same reasons. I don't see a raise on the flop getting a fold with the 2-way straight flush draw villian has. Just a sick beat.

 

[cpac54]

Gross.

 

[kmccormick100]

Conclusion:

$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.

Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.

Hero in CO looks down at .

Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.

Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.

Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.

Pot now is $7000.

Flop is



Villain bets out $5000.

Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said, or are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.

Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.

Turn is .

Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.

A few things to consider here for Hero.

The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.

Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.

River is .

Villain bets $17,500.

So, we've obviously hit the second best board we could with our hand (Ac, 2c, 5c or 2c, 5c, 6c would be better), and we are going to raise. Our analysis for how much to raise is predicated on what we think Villain is putting us on. We called the pre flop raise, the flop AND the turn. What could we have here? Clearly a flush. Villain's perception of hero includes propensity for outrageous bluffs, both publicly and in the current game. That perception could allow us to make a pretty substantial raise and then get called down with AcAx, or AcKx.

Villain could also put us on 8c9c, which is a reasonable hand for us to have in the cutoff, and justifies most of the ways in which Hero has played the hand. A minraise could signal smaller flushes from Kc to Qc and induce a shove.

Only hand that beats us is 8c9c, and we have to consider how often someone as tight as Villain would hold those. Our read is that scenario is not likely, and we need to go with that instinct. Which means, we need to induce a shove with Ac, which we are putting him on at this point. Virtually anything else will fold to any sort of raise.

Hero raises to $67,500.

Villain tanks. For what seems like a very long time. It was probably around 4 minutes.

Villain re-raises to $150,000.

Hero reluctantly snap calls. Pot is now $325,400.

Villain turns over .



Main Question: (Yes, a pre-fold would have been best, but this question is beyond that.)

- Would a raise on the flop have taken it down?

1) If villain is opening to 7.5x UTG with 89s he's not that tight

2) a large flop raise MAY have taken it down if, in fact, V is that tight - that doesn't necessarily make it the right play. Most likely though, V isn't folding a gut shot SFD to any normal raise.

3) I think after the turn, this hand is essentially playing out like this no matter what you do. Poker sucks sometimes

 

[Highli99]

Are you confident the game is on the up and up? Bad beats do happen but in these massive stakes home games I am just super skeptical. Too many ways to cheat with the new auto shufflers or experienced operators.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Yeah I'm always wary about these types of hands in home games. Especially when a seemingly super tight player acts in a way that isn't super tight (big raise utg with a hand that plays best multi-way oop). Considering I've never been in a bad beat hand (both cards needing to play) straight flush over straight flush, and have ever only seen it at a casino once, I'd think twice about going back.

 

[Windwalker]

1) If villain is opening to 7.5x UTG with 89s he's not that tight

You're forgetting the $400 BB ante. But I think this was just some variant play from what continued to be (after) very tight play. He was just sunrunning, and that sometimes makes us play wider ranges.

 

[JMC9389]

Are you confident the game is on the up and up? Bad beats do happen but in these massive stakes home games I am just super skeptical. Too many ways to cheat with the new auto shufflers or experienced operators.

First thought I had. This is what I call a set up hand if I ever saw one. Something doesn't smell right here. I've literally never seen straight flush over a straight flush, even in playing mixed games.

That the villain opened UTG with non paint suited cards also would make me reconsider my perception of them. Definitely not as tight as you seem to think he was.

 

[Windwalker]

Are you confident the game is on the up and up? Bad beats do happen but in these massive stakes home games I am just super skeptical. Too many ways to cheat with the new auto shufflers or experienced operators.

Oh yeah! My weekly home game, and it's totally chill. This was a new player to the game, as well -- the dealers have been with our game for over 2 years. Nothing bad going on at all. Just a bad draw of cards.

 

[Rakrul]

Well, you're supposed to stack off with the sucker end of SF anyways. I don't mind the river raise sizebetting, just curious if he'd call a-high with it. It seems very exploitable if he'd fold it, so I'm guessing yes.

 

[Frogzilla]

Main Question: (Yes, a pre-fold would have been best, but this question is beyond that.)

- Would a raise on the flop have taken it down?

I dunno…villain is tight, but it’s a combo draw! Deep stacked. Doubt a flop raise gets through.

Interesting turn tank by the villain. Probably it’s unbalanced and very exploitable once you realize what situations they do that.

 

[GetUrShineBox]

Poker is a F@cked up game.
What a cooler of all coolers.

 

[Goldfish]

 

[ovo]

wow

 

[FDLmold]

I would not classify as TIGHT a player who raises UTG with 89 sooted. Unless the game was 4-handed or something.

Definitely a cooler of a hand.

 

[jr8719]

Conclusion:

$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.

Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.

Hero in CO looks down at .

Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.

Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.

Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.

Pot now is $7000.

Flop is



Villain bets out $5000.

Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said, or are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.

Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.

Turn is .

Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.

A few things to consider here for Hero.

The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.

Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.

River is .

Villain bets $17,500.

So, we've obviously hit the second best board we could with our hand (Ac, 2c, 5c or 2c, 5c, 6c would be better), and we are going to raise. Our analysis for how much to raise is predicated on what we think Villain is putting us on. We called the pre flop raise, the flop AND the turn. What could we have here? Clearly a flush. Villain's perception of hero includes propensity for outrageous bluffs, both publicly and in the current game. That perception could allow us to make a pretty substantial raise and then get called down with AcAx, or AcKx.

Villain could also put us on 8c9c, which is a reasonable hand for us to have in the cutoff, and justifies most of the ways in which Hero has played the hand. A minraise could signal smaller flushes from Kc to Qc and induce a shove.

Only hand that beats us is 8c9c, and we have to consider how often someone as tight as Villain would hold those. Our read is that scenario is not likely, and we need to go with that instinct. Which means, we need to induce a shove with Ac, which we are putting him on at this point. Virtually anything else will fold to any sort of raise.

Hero raises to $67,500.

Villain tanks. For what seems like a very long time. It was probably around 4 minutes.

Villain re-raises to $150,000.

Hero reluctantly snap calls. Pot is now $325,400.

Villain turns over .



Main Question: (Yes, a pre-fold would have been best, but this question is beyond that.)

- Would a raise on the flop have taken it down?

Krish: "I have a straight flush."

Villain: "Me too..."

Krish:

 

[raynmanas]

well that's fucking gross

 

[DrStrange]

Just have to say this situation seems a little fishy. Not impossible, but rather unlikely.

As a reminder: "Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable."

Set over set is pretty unlikely but does happen. K-flush vs Q-flush is also unlikely but does happen as well. Straight flush vs straight flush is beyond unlikely in hold'em Sure it happens - it did in this hand - but it is a less than a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing. All of these hands in a single session playing huge stakes? Yeah, that is a bit much.

Toss in the villain being TIGHT, uncomfortable yet somehow playing 98s from UTG -something reasonable enough for a LAGish player or a comfortable pro. Not so reasonable given hero's table read about this villain.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars are changing hands in a game like this. The motivation for cheating is obvious - everyone involved can make a years income in a single crooked session.

I don't know the back story - is the host beyond reproach? are the procedures rock solid? Are the players of a dubious nature? < shrug > it could be just random disastrous luck. Even so, I'd be very careful if Hero has future dealings with any of these characters.

DrStrange

 

[Windwalker]

I would not classify as TIGHT a player who raises UTG with 89 sooted. Unless the game was 4-handed or something.

Definitely a cooler of a hand.

I know, totally threw me off. He was insanely tight until that hand. I think he was playing a rush, having won a number of hands just before.

 

[Windwalker]

Just have to say this situation seems a little fishy. Not impossible, but rather unlikely.

As a reminder: "Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable."

Set over set is pretty unlikely but does happen. K-flush vs Q-flush is also unlikely but does happen as well. Straight flush vs straight flush is beyond unlikely in hold'em Sure it happens - it did in this hand - but it is a less than a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing. All of these hands in a single session playing huge stakes? Yeah, that is a bit much.

Toss in the villain being TIGHT, uncomfortable yet somehow playing 98s from UTG -something reasonable enough for a LAGish player or a comfortable pro. Not so reasonable given hero's table read about this villain.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars are changing hands in a game like this. The motivation for cheating is obvious - everyone involved can make a years income in a single crooked session.

I don't know the back story - is the host beyond reproach? are the procedures rock solid? Are the players of a dubious nature? < shrug > it could be just random disastrous luck. Even so, I'd be very careful if Hero has future dealings with any of these characters again

DrStrange

I think it’s a super fair point, but unfortunately I think it was just luck.

The host was one of the people that got coolered previously, with the K-high flush over his Q-high flush.

This is a game I’ve been playing weekly for almost 2 years, and millions of dollars have changed hands without an issue. I’ve won massive pots here, and lots massive ones. The players are all vetted, and new players have to be double-referred by a regular.

It’s an unraked game, no shufflers, and both dealers for this week’s game are Vegas dealers from the Aria who drive out for this game once a month. (We have a pool of about 7 dealers.) They’ve been dealing in the game almost 2 years.

Sometimes, the cards just don’t run your way.

 

[Kain8]

Oh boy, I'm starting to smell some reverse implied odds here.

 

[FDLmold]

new players have to be double-referred by a regular.

Is that anything like double secret probation?

 

[Budha]

Just have to say this situation seems a little fishy. Not impossible, but rather unlikely.

As a reminder: "Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable."

Set over set is pretty unlikely but does happen. K-flush vs Q-flush is also unlikely but does happen as well. Straight flush vs straight flush is beyond unlikely in hold'em Sure it happens - it did in this hand - but it is a less than a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing. All of these hands in a single session playing huge stakes? Yeah, that is a bit much.

Toss in the villain being TIGHT, uncomfortable yet somehow playing 98s from UTG -something reasonable enough for a LAGish player or a comfortable pro. Not so reasonable given hero's table read about this villain.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars are changing hands in a game like this. The motivation for cheating is obvious - everyone involved can make a years income in a single crooked session.

I don't know the back story - is the host beyond reproach? are the procedures rock solid? Are the players of a dubious nature? < shrug > it could be just random disastrous luck. Even so, I'd be very careful if Hero has future dealings with any of these characters.

DrStrange

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems the variance in NLHE has gotten higher with the hands people play now.

I’m noticing a lot more long odds hands being played on the premise the big payoff of winning 1 of 10 counters the 9 times it looses, etc.

Seems crazier scenarios are happening b/c a lot more hands are being chased for long term potential “EV”.

Just an observation, I am not a serious student of the current HE strategies TBH, so I could be way off base.

Anyway - you’re not wrong though, St8 flush over St8 flush is something I’ve only seen on Pokerrr 2 - lol. It’s highly unusual for sure.

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems the variance in NLHE has gotten higher with the hands people play now.

I’m noticing a lot more long odds hands being played on the premise the big payoff of winning 1 of 10 counters the 9 times it looses, etc.

Seems crazier scenarios are happening b/c a lot more hands are being chased for long term potential “EV”.

Sure- thats a big part of why stack sizes matter. If Im chasing a big hand Im hoping for a big payoff, implied odds of hitting that draw. If Im up against someone with a very short stack, might not be worth chasing.

 

[TKEUofM]

I just threw up after reading the conclusion….. that is brutal

 

[Budha]

Sure- thats a big part of why stack sizes matter. If Im chasing a big hand Im hoping for a big payoff, implied odds of hitting that draw. If Im up against someone with a very short stack, might not be worth chasing.

True - but stack size always matters - lol.

 

[WedgeRock]

So, we've obviously hit the second best board we could with our hand (Ac, 2c, 5c or 2c, 5c, 6c would be better)

So 3rd best board? Unless you're discounting 2c5c6c because you still don't have the nuts if the 4th club is the 7c.

Who cares how hard the board hit our hand? All we care about is how nutty our hand is, no?

If you get to the river, no way you're getting away from it. Actually, only calling the 3-bet and not fully doubling him up is the silver lining here.

 

[Windwalker]

Unless you're discounting 2c5c6c because you still don't have the nuts if the 4th club is the 7c.

This.

 

[doublebooyah85]

I don’t think I’d ever fold a straight flush w only 3 of the connectors on the board, and my mind would be racing w/ a monster pot in play (regardless the high stakes, it’s a big hand in relation to blinds) AND the thrill having a straight flush.

But being able to read this on a forum, knowing the outcome and having zero emotion, the villian 3 bets you on the river right? Did I read that correct? How is he NOT doing that without a straight flush. Especially after he tanks and thinks it thru. And since you have the low, he must have the high. Your only call here is now hoping he is bluffing?

Thanks for sharing. Love when you guys post hand analysis. My memory is shit and I rely so much on instincts and luck tbh lol.