Galfond suggests this is a fold in PLO... (1 Viewer)

[pitchie]

Did anyone see the Joey Ingram PLO hand he posted recently from RunItOnce? You flop the second nuts and Galfond explains why he thinks it's a fold in the comments.

I see his reasoning and almost fully understand it and still don't think I can fold.

My thoughts:
1) Got 2nd nuts
2) Blockers to AQ
3) Even more blockers to q9 chop
4) Our K even blocks a lot of two pair hands that might fill up

Could you fold?

Thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242289330476830720

 

[DrStrange]

Omaha teaches us harsh lessons about non-nut hands. The deeper we are the harder the lesson. Here hero has almost no redraws - just a runner-runner full house draw and draws to a chop (?) if an ace comes.

The hand is quite shallow though. The SPR is less than four - keeping in mind SPR is a hold'em statistic, not as applicable to Omaha. Perhaps this is a tournament rather than a cash game. Also this is heads up not a full table.

So what sort of hands would villain be risking his tournament life on? Would villain pot the flop bet with a straight? How about with a set? Considering only sets and straights - - - there are eight AQ hands, six Q9 hands, one top set and six lower sets.

Hero is drawing thin vs broadway, less than 10%. hero is chopping vs Q9. Hero is a 2-1 favorite vs the sets ( could be closer to even if villain has an ace in his hand giving a gut shot draw as well). So 8 hands with 10% equity, 6 chops, 7 hands with 60% equity. Overall ~~38% equity. Hero is risking 48 to win 126 making this essentially an even money proposition.

In a tournament, I can find a fold more easily than in a cash game. I do not think it is so obvious though. We could easily add-in a few more two pair + gutshot hands to the villain's range, tipping the odds more in our favor. Not to mention semi bluffs with AAJx sorts of hands - blockers to broadway plus a gut shot draw if needed.

Villain reads would be valuable.

I am not finding a snap fold here. Maybe a sign fold vs the right sort of villain. The hand is too shallow to be giving up the second nut in a heads up enviroment. Hero is ultra exploitable if he is folding this wide. I think hero has to be calling down vs an unknown (but skilled villain).

But what do I know about tournament Omaha? I think villain should be bluffing his ass off if Hero is going to be nut peddling late in a tournament.

DrStrange

 

[Anthony Martino]

I don't play headsup or much tournaments, would need info on opponent. Yes, we block some of villains bluff and semi-bluff combos

But, the board is rainbow, why would villain checkraise the nuts headsup instead of allowing us to blast off if he has the nuts and thinks we are bluffing? Just afraid of the board pairing?

Again, would need more info than is given here to make my decision

 

[upNdown]

I'm a hack, but yeah, I'm staring at this thinking do I want to fold now, do I want to put more money in, then fold, or do I want to lose a lot of money at showdown. In Omaha, I like to have outs and lots of them.

 

[JustinInMN]

This really is a trouble hand pre imo. The 9 makes a two gap and flops more trouble straights that good ones. I won't go so far as to say it's foldable pre, but that two gap really weakens this hand for that reason. I would almost rather have KJJ9 tbh, makes more nut straights with T8x and QTx flops being helpful and all providing nut possibilities.

I think bet-fold is fine here, or check-call. You are almost hoping to be against a dry set or and over played two pair getting raised here. And really any decent villain with these holdings also has straight draws that are better.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Villain in the BB can be making this play headsup with a variety of hands that we beat though:

KKJT
QJJT
QTT8
AAJT
AAKJ
AKT9

And other various combos, believing in a headsup situation they have the best hand and at least have outs if we are ahead of them

Yes, generally in PLO the 2nd nuts is a money burner. But headsup with blockers to the nuts there I'm finding a fold a lot more difficult without additional info on opponent and how the action went preflop

 

[JustinInMN]

I guess this is an important point, is this truly a heads up hand or is a 6 handed hand with just the principles action highlighted?

 

[pitchie]

I guess this is an important point, is this truly a heads up hand or is a 6 handed hand with just the principles action highlighted?

As I understand it, it's heads up.

 

[redwine]

I think I fold. I dont see what else he is check raising with assuming he's playing standard. Keep in mind we also block top set and even middle set to some extent with our holdings.

Betting the flop was fine trying to get value from 2p+sets, but it's time to let it go. I can see checking this on the flop too.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I think I fold. I dont see what else he is check raising with assuming he's playing standard. Keep in mind we also block top set and even middle set to some extent with our holdings.

Betting the flop was fine trying to get value from 2p+sets, but it's time to let it go. I can see checking this on the flop too.

I think villains in most instances here, headsup, are WAY more likely to checkraise us big on a non flush board with pair + draw, two pair and sets, rather than the stone cold nuts of AQ.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Hands like this that Hero often has the best hand but when he is behind is crushed I like to play it as a check/raise fold or raise fold.

It is very rare that if we raise and get re raised that we aren’t against the stone cold nuts. It is almost always cheaper to lose the raise amount than calling 3 streets to find out the same information.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Hands like this that Hero often has the best hand but when he is behind is crushed I like to play it as a check/raise fold or raise fold.

It is very rare that if we raise and get re raised that we aren’t against the stone cold nuts. It is almost always cheaper to lose the raise amount than calling 3 streets to find out the same information.

If I'm reading the picture correctly, villain has 55bb's and checkraised to 37.5

So if we do continue I can't see any other play but to repot and get it all-in given the SPR at that point

 

[ChaosRock]

Did anyone run numbers under certain assumptions regrading Villain's holdings distribution?

 

[Rhodeman77]

If I'm reading the picture correctly, villain has 55bb's and checkraised to 37.5

So if we do continue I can't see any other play but to repot and get it all-in given the SPR at that point

These stacks are shallow now. I was making a more general play assessment in these spots.

As Hero I would have check raised to $20 and folded to a jam. I don’t like a lead here, and as played I can definitely find a fold. Hero only has $10 or so in the pot, and almost no equity against the nuts. I hate going broke with second nuts when I don’t have to.

 

[Anthony Martino]

These stacks are shallow now. I was making a more general play assessment in these spots.

As Hero I would have check raised to $20 and folded to a jam. I don’t like a lead here, and as played I can definitely find a fold. Hero only has $10 or so in the pot, and almost no equity against the nuts. I hate going broke with second nuts when I don’t have to.

While I don't play headsup.PLO, I think Villain is more likely to be check-raising so large in this spot with pair + draw, two pair and sets more than the absolute nuts

I can nut peddle all day in full ring, but folding the 2nd nuts headsup seems extremely exploitable.

On a rainbow flop, why would villain scare us off with the nuts here? Villains bet just looks less like the nuts to me and more like strong hands we are beating more often than not

 

[Rhodeman77]

While I don't play headsup.PLO, I think Villain is more likely to be check-raising so large in this spot with pair + draw, two pair and sets more than the absolute nuts

I can nut peddle all day in full ring, but folding the 2nd nuts headsup seems extremely exploitable.

On a rainbow flop, why would villain scare us off with the nuts here? Villains bet just looks less like the nuts to me and more like strong hands we are beating more often than not

He could be trying to protect vs a set. Get second nut straight to pay off before the board pair and kills the action. Could be free rolling with same straight and two pair or set.

I do play a lot of heads up and 3 handed PLO. These are the type of hands/pots that I make a lot of money because villains can’t get away from second nut hands thinking it has to be good, we are so short handed.

 

[JustinInMN]

This both illustrates the beauty and the frustration of Omaha.

It really becomes a nut-peddling game at some point. So long as players don't figure it out, a lot of money can be made.

 

[redwine]

This both illustrates the beauty and the frustration of Omaha.

It really becomes a nut-peddling game at some point. So long as players don't figure it out, a lot of money can be made.

Theres definitely hands here you can continue that are not AQxx. KKxx and JJxx, mainly, or maybe even KJxx with double backdoors if we were a bit deeper. KQQ9 is just not it because you're pretty much dead against AQ.

 

[Anthony Martino]

With stacks this shallow in a headsup pot I'm likely stacking off here barring some special info on my opponent that they ONLY ever have the nuts here

There are so many other combos of hands most villains could take this line with that we beat, I am not finding the fold button all that often

 

[Rhodeman77]

PLO is not much different than Hold’em in that when 4 bets (or more) start happening on a street the hands making those bets are going to be much closer to the nuts than not.

If Hero jams and is called he is crushed most of the time. Either by AQ (most times) Q9 with a set or 2 pair and getting free rolled, or the small amount of time Hero is ahead he is facing a set with a Q for the straight draw as well for decent equity.

I would go the other end of the spectrum, unless this Villain has a history of being super aggressive and laggy I would make this fold.

Again why I like the line of a check raise, it does cost Hero 20 instead of 7.5 when folding, but you can be 95% certain villain has AQ if they 4 bet jam. As played it is a 3 bet now and Hero has to decide to play for stacks with second nuts no redraw instead of Villain.

 

[navels]

Reads:

Villain is a heads-up solver: https://www.runitonce.com/vision

Also, Hero is a heads-up solver: https://www.runitonce.com/vision

 

[Anthony Martino]

PLO is not much different than Hold’em in that when 4 bets (or more) start happening on a street the hands making those bets are going to be much closer to the nuts than not.

When stacks are shallow AND you're headsup, the hands people will go to war with are significantly wider than the nuts only.

I see full ring players stacking off with all sorts of goofy shit that isn't anywhere close to the nuts

If Hero jams and is called he is crushed most of the time. Either by AQ (most times) Q9 with a set or 2 pair and getting free rolled, or the small amount of time Hero is ahead he is facing a set with a Q for the straight draw as well for decent equity.

I expect we are getting called if we jam regardless of whether we are ahead or behind, as villain pot committed themselves with the check-raise

As played it is a 3 bet now and Hero has to decide to play for stacks with second nuts no redraw instead of Villain.

Hero has redraws, in a sense. We can hit the Ace for the nuts. We can catch running cards to fill up as we paired the King and have QQ in the hole

I still feel with stacks this shallow, the betting tell of such a large checkraise being pair +draw, sets and two pair rather than "the nuts" on a rainbow board, that we should be willing to stack off here against most opponents when holding the 2nd nuts, blocking the nuts and having some slim redraws in the event we ran into AQ

 

[Anthony Martino]

Maybe Galfond is down over 800k in his headsup challenge cause he keeps folding 2nd nuts in shallow stack spots

 

[navels]

Maybe Galfond is down over 800k in his headsup challenge cause he keeps folding 2nd nuts in shallow stack spots

you haven't been keeping up he's down ~264K.

 

[Anthony Martino]

you haven't been keeping up he's down ~264K.

This was what I found as the most recent, quick google search on my phone. He made up ground, but was still down 820k

https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/ne...resumes-heads-up-challenge-cuts-into-deficit/

 

[navels]

he's been crushing it lately

 

[Anthony Martino]

he's been crushing it lately

Link? Is he up now?

 

[navels]

Link? Is he up now?

https://www.runitonce.eu/galfond-challenge/#venividi

like I said, he's still down around $260K but I believe that's a 640K upswing over the last 15 sessions.

 

[Anthony Martino]

https://www.runitonce.eu/galfond-challenge/#venividi

like I said, he's still down around $260K but I believe that's a 640K upswing over the last 15 sessions.

Good chunk of ground made up, will be interesting to see how it finishes

 

[navels]

Good chunk of ground made up, will be interesting to see how it finishes

He ended up 106K in today's session, so now down only 154K with 5700 hands left. Will be interesting to see if his opponent starts folding every hand to lock up the side bet.