Galfond suggests this is a fold in PLO... (2 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

So let's look at this hand from the other side of the table.

Hero has bet half pot, putting 22.5 on the table up for grabs. I have 55.5 left. Gathering up 22.5 is + 40% to my stack and puts me tied with Hero at 78 each.

If we know Hero is folding anything but the nuts, obviously I should bet every time with anything. But maybe hero is not THAT absolute - he might call with a hand like a set or something similar where his pot odds are close enough to take the risk and try picking off a bluff.

If my read on hero is reasonable enough to know how close to nut peddling he is, should I be betting 100% of the time and counting on enough fold equity to make that profitable? Or do I need to have some sort of draw / blockers to make up the difference?

Seeing the discussion in this thread, my range should be huger than ginormous. Perhaps I can't get away with this for long, but this late in a tournament where the blinds are substantial each hand, stealing even a couple of hands might be enough to be the winning margin.

Just saying this is no time and place to be peddling the nuts -=- DrStrange

 

[navels]

Galfond ended today's session up 133K, only down 40K overall with 5K of 25K hands left to play.

He was actually in the green midway through the session.

 

[upNdown]

Galfond ended today's session up 133K, only down 40K overall with 5K of 25K hands left to play.

He was actually in the green midway through the session.

Its an insane swing

 

[navels]

Up 120K in today's session, up overall 81K with 2900 hands left.

 

[pitchie]

Absolute incredible feat. Been fascinating to watch whether he holds or not.

 

[navels]

Ended today up 23K for the session, down only ~8K overall with 698 hands remaining to play. Final session will be Sunday!

 

[trigs]

Insane comeback even if he doesn't end up winning. I originally said that the more hands he plays against someone the better he'll get. He's definitely a smart dude.

 

[navels]

Streaming on twitch now:

Phil is up 3BBs with 325 hands left. Crazy!

 

[navels]

Phil was down ~30K, dangerously close to allowing his opponent to fold his way to victory, but has clawed back to 7.4K down with 160 hands left. Just insane how down-to-the-wire this is over 25K hands.

 

[trigs]

Insane comeback win for Galfond! Boat over boat for final hand to settle it. Still can't believe he won it.

 

[navels]

just sick

 

[Anthony Martino]

Insane comeback win for Galfond! Boat over boat for final hand to settle it. Still can't believe he won it.

Looks like boat over boat wasn't the final hand. Galfond took advantage of the spot over 70 hands from completing the challenge to lock in the side bet win

Something his opponent could've done I believe after he was up over a million, but chose not to

 

[trigs]

Looks like boat over boat wasn't the final hand. Galfond took advantage of the spot over 70 hands from completing the challenge to lock in the side bet win

Something his opponent could've done I believe after he was up over a million, but chose not to

View attachment 439162

No, boat over boat happened and then he was up by enough that he folded the last 50ish hands to win.