Omaha teaches us harsh lessons about non-nut hands. The deeper we are the harder the lesson. Here hero has almost no redraws - just a runner-runner full house draw and draws to a chop (?) if an ace comes.
The hand is quite shallow though. The SPR is less than four - keeping in mind SPR is a hold'em statistic, not as applicable to Omaha. Perhaps this is a tournament rather than a cash game. Also this is heads up not a full table.
So what sort of hands would villain be risking his tournament life on? Would villain pot the flop bet with a straight? How about with a set? Considering only sets and straights - - - there are eight AQ hands, six Q9 hands, one top set and six lower sets.
Hero is drawing thin vs broadway, less than 10%. hero is chopping vs Q9. Hero is a 2-1 favorite vs the sets ( could be closer to even if villain has an ace in his hand giving a gut shot draw as well). So 8 hands with 10% equity, 6 chops, 7 hands with 60% equity. Overall ~~38% equity. Hero is risking 48 to win 126 making this essentially an even money proposition.
In a tournament, I can find a fold more easily than in a cash game. I do not think it is so obvious though. We could easily add-in a few more two pair + gutshot hands to the villain's range, tipping the odds more in our favor. Not to mention semi bluffs with AAJx sorts of hands - blockers to broadway plus a gut shot draw if needed.
Villain reads would be valuable.
I am not finding a snap fold here. Maybe a sign fold vs the right sort of villain. The hand is too shallow to be giving up the second nut in a heads up enviroment. Hero is ultra exploitable if he is folding this wide. I think hero has to be calling down vs an unknown (but skilled villain).
But what do I know about tournament Omaha? I think villain should be bluffing his ass off if Hero is going to be nut peddling late in a tournament.
DrStrange