44 3-Handed

What should I do?


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Chippy McChiperson

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Same tournament, we're now three handed, and blinds are now 4k/8k. 1st pays $570 with 4780 plus 100*bounties points, 2nd $340 with 3780 plus 100*B points, third $210 with 3330 plus 100*B points. UTG (very aggressive) shoves for 69k, Big stack (same guy as before) reshoves for about 180k, I have about 135k and look down and see 44. What do I do?
 

sheikh617

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Even though UTG is a high aggro player, two suited overs alone would be a coin flip with pocket 4s. The big stack has also already proven that he isn't calling off his stack without something serious (as referenced by the queens from last scenario). I think this is an easy fold and I'm on team big stack here, in an effort to go heads up and try and out play him if he wins this hand.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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I thought it was at least worth thinking about. 3rd place is already locked up, if UTG is playing any two cards and big stack is reshoving, presumably its unlikely the shorty wins the hand. Which means that I'd come in 3rd maybe the 10% of the time that I lose to both hands AND shorty wins the main pot, second if Big Stack wins, or have a huge chip lead if my fours win.
 

DrStrange

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We already determined that Hero should auto fold anything less than QQ+, maybe KK+.

Really, Hero could go get a hotdog sandwich, visit the men's room, perhaps play an orbit at the cash table. But calling vs. a villain who's range is QQ+, AKo without the aforementioned aces or kings is a mistake.

It is all about ranging the big stack. -=- DrStrange
 

Anthony Martino

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I'm in the fold camp as well, but I'm a known nit. I mean, I guess if we're up against exactly 22 and 33 (or better yet, 33 and 33) then it's a great spot. Otherwise I think there are better spots than this and we still have a workable stack.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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We already determined that Hero should auto fold anything less than QQ+, maybe KK+.

Really, Hero could go get a hotdog sandwich, visit the men's room, perhaps play an orbit at the cash table. But calling vs. a villain who's range is QQ+, AKo without the aforementioned aces or kings is a mistake.

It is all about ranging the big stack. -=- DrStrange
Pretty sure his range is a lot wider here than in the other spot, not sure why you're so salty
 

toynoob

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I thought it was at least worth thinking about. 3rd place is already locked up, if UTG is playing any two cards and big stack is reshoving, presumably its unlikely the shorty wins the hand. Which means that I'd come in 3rd maybe the 10% of the time that I lose to both hands AND shorty wins the main pot, second if Big Stack wins, or have a huge chip lead if my fours win.
Try and find a pro to take your side on that stance. Let's say short stack doubles and you lose, you are left with bread crumbs instead of still great chance to Bink the whole thing. Not belittling you or nothing, just making a point 4s is like having 73 here. 89 is a flip at best your flipping and most likely on of them has 9s or better
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Try and find a pro to take your side on that stance. Let's say short stack doubles and you lose, you are left with bread crumbs instead of still great chance to Bink the whole thing. Not belittling you or nothing, just making a point 4s is like having 73 here. 89 is a flip at best your flipping and most likely on of them has 9s or better
if short stack wins and I lose the side pot, I'm out. If I win the side pot, I still have 132k, and the former big stack is down to 45k. (shorty will have over 200k chips)
 

Highli99

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A call here is probably correct a small percentage of the time. I’d prefer it as the big stack where you can knock out a player in the side pot. Of course, if they both have an Ax hand it’s not bad but over pairs are problematic.
 

DrStrange

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I was being a little wry, but the basic logic is the same.

Hero has already made a villain read that a reshove from this villain is much stronger than a call. Maybe much, much stronger. This villain does not act as if he understand the game theory of the moment. This villain does not seem to evaluate the situation from the other players' point of view - i.e. he is a level 0 or 1 thinker.

I think we know two things. a) Hero is much better than the deep stacked villain. b) Hero's baby pair is, at best, barely ahead of either villain's range.

For example - ATo vs 44 is a 53/47 edge. K6o vs 44 is a 54/46 edge. JTs vs 44 is a 47/53 dog TT vs 44 is a 20/80 dog. The only good match is some villain hand with a 2 or 3 in it. e.g. A2s vs 44 is a 66/34.

So why would hero want to roll the dice on basically a 50/50 proposition? Let the big stack take out the shorty and then shred the weak spot heads-up.
 

Moxie Mike

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Did the other players know that you folded AK earlier?
A minor yet relevant point.

Easy fold in this spot - maybe you think about it for a second or two but 44-99+AJ & probably AQ goes straight into the muck without much hesitation or afterthought. Too much risk even though the prize is significant if you win.

10-10-AK? Not as straightforward of a decision and I'd give consideration to both options. I don't like folding to ladder up when the chance to chip up and take a commanding chip lead is a good possibility.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Doesn't seem to be as close a decision as I might have thought apparently. I did think for about 30 seconds, but decided to go with the majority here and folded. I pretty much agreed with @DrStrange in that even going heads up at an almost 2-1 disadvantage, I was way more experienced than the other player head's up. they both had AJ, and I would have won the hand btw, but the odds of that exact scenario happening are pretty low. Big stack eventually knocked out shorty, then I steamrolled him and took it down.
 
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