AK on the bubble (3 Viewers)

What do you do?

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Chippy McChiperson

Chippy McChiperson

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6 handed on the money bubble of @krafticus monthly tournament, 5 pay, $540 up top and $110 to 5th ($40 +$10 + $10 tourney with 27 runners and 9 ribeyes) . Blinds 3k/6k, UTG shortstack (normally solid player, but his shoving range is very wide here) shoves his remaining 28k, UTG+1 not overly aggressive big stack shoves all-in for his 110k or so. The other 3 players fold (all with stacks between 40-60k), and in the big blind I wake up with AKo. My stack is about 95k, and at this point I’ve collected 5 bounties. It should be noted, we’ve all decided (as is tradition at this game) to chip in 1 bounty each for the bubble boy, so they’d get $50 back.

Also to keep in mind, the points for coming in first place are way higher than 6th. 1st usually gets around 4700 + 100 per bounty, 2nd 3900 + 100xB, and 6th probably around 2k + 100xB. The total number of points translates to a correlating number of chips in the end of year free roll (not really a free roll, $10 per buy-in all year goes towards this game, but there’s no additional buy-in).

Normally there’s a cash game going in case I bust, but all the main cash players either busted out way early and didn’t want to wait around, or went very deep, so nothing to fall back on. Also, we’re playing with my chips, so I’ve got to wait around til the end no matter what. WWYD?
 
Whew.......I'm so worried about UTG+1 in this situation. With three players who have smaller stacks, and UTG at risk of going bust, I'd fold here. Maybe if it was suited I might make the call. If it was earlier in the tourney and rebuys were allowed I'd definitely call. This exact spot I'm throwing it away and calling myself a sissy lol.
 
I'm very rusty on ICM but I think this might be a fold. Even if they doubled up, you would have 4 players in the 40-60k range to abuse.
 
Also, if the two short stacks bust, don’t you get 5th?
 
I'd definatley call the 28k if that was the only bet. I think I would fold to the bigger stack though on the bubble.
 
WSOP tourney I played this year. We are well into the money but it pays 260k to win. I finally have Avg stack after playing short stack for hours.

Player goes all in for barely more than me and I look down at :as::ks: and make the call.
He turns over 99
Don't hit an A or a K or any spades and i'm sent packing.
I still think about that decision today. If I hit it's a great call, but looking back I would rather be the aggressor with AK than call off my stack with it.
I agree with @colter ripton, if i'm not at risk it's an easy call, but for my tournament life I would pick a better spot.
 
You have less than 16bb and can get AIPF with AK? That's a slam dunk call. You still cash if the big stack busts you both, but if you win the hand, you have a bloody stranglehold on the tournament.
 
I think you are likely against an under pair and a weaker ace... not sure who has which... but something like that exists. Alternatively, could be against two weaker aces... or two under pairs. Big stack's jam doesn't feel strong to me. Not doing/knowing the math... this feels like a call to me.
 
I call. You could validate either route, but IMO AK is playing to win, folding is playing to cash. What's the goal?

For me, sometimes it's either ... So... I dunno. I call and sweat instead of folding and saying "I could have won"
 
I need a far better villain description for UTG+1.

Is he blind? i.e. only self aware and ignorant of the situation?

UTG is on death's door. M=3 about to be M=2 in two hands. His shoving range isn't wide, it is W I D E. Maybe top ~50% of hands So Q7o+ J8s+ 22+

If UTG+1 is aware and competent, he might plausibly jam with a pretty wide range himself, say top 20% of hands. This range is very imbalanced with unpaired hands much more common than pairs. Say something like one pair for every three or four unpaired hands.

AKo is something like a 3rd to 4th percentile of hands. If UTG+1 plays well, understands game theory as it applies here and thinks deeper than just his hand. If all that seems true, then Hero can profitably call.

But if UTG+1 is a "tight is right" sort of guy. Someone who treats a six handed game the same as a ten handed one. Someone who is already angling for a minimum payout by being careful, then hero can consider folding.

VS a random player, I think this is a snap call. But it isn't an unknown, it is a well known regular. Hero can make a better decision because of that. And we could too if someone coughs up the information.

Hero is trying to win the whole thing, right? -=- DrStrange
 
DrStrange said:
I need a far better villain description for UTG+1.

Is he blind? i.e. only self aware and ignorant of the situation?

UTG is on death's door. M=3 about to be M=2 in two hands. His shoving range isn't wide, it is W I D E. Maybe top ~50% of hands So Q7o+ J8s+ 22+

If UTG+1 is aware and competent, he might plausibly jam with a pretty wide range himself, say top 20% of hands. This range is very imbalanced with unpaired hands much more common than pairs. Say something like one pair for every three or four unpaired hands.

AKo is something like a 3rd to 4th percentile of hands. If UTG+1 plays well, understands game theory as it applies here and thinks deeper than just his hand. If all that seems true, then Hero can profitably call.

But if UTG+1 is a "tight is right" sort of guy. Someone who treats a six handed game the same as a ten handed one. Someone who is already angling for a minimum payout by being careful, then hero can consider folding.

VS a random player, I think this is a snap call. But it isn't an unknown, it is a well known regular. Hero can make a better decision because of that. And we could too if someone coughs up the information.

Hero is trying to win the whole thing, right? -=- DrStrange
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t say UTG+1 is a tight is right guy, I think he’d call with a large number of mid to big aces, and most pocket pairs, probably KQs, etc. I don’t think he’s jamming lightly though, he’s maybe a second level poker player, and as I stated earlier, not overly aggressive. If he’s jamming here I’d think he has a pretty big hand.
 
A4s+, A7o+, KQs, 55+ is crushed by AKo. If that is how Hero ranges UTG+1 then fist pump all in.

Also note Hero has two shots at glory. If UTG wins the main pot but Hero wins the huge side pot, I would call that a big win for Hero.
 
DrStrange said:
A4s+, A7o+, KQs, 55+ is crushed by AKo. If that is how Hero ranges UTG+1 then fist pump all in.

Also note Hero has two shots at glory. If UTG wins the main pot but Hero wins the huge side pot, I would call that a big win for Hero.
Click to expand...

That’s how I would range him flatting UTGs all-in. Obviously if I think that’s his reshooting range I snap. I think his resolving range is way smaller, I just don’t know exactly what it is. Does it have AQs and AJs? I’m not sure if it does.
 
Kain8 said:
You have less than 16bb and can get AIPF with AK? That's a slam dunk call. You still cash if the big stack busts you both, but if you win the hand, you have a bloody stranglehold on the tournament.
Click to expand...
A million times this. Your only concern with AK and 16 bigs is to get your chips in the middle and take your lumps.
 
So . . . UTG+1 has a top 20th percentile calling range and a top 3rd percentile jamming range. I.e. He is that sort of guy from which Hero should flee in terror.

3rd percentile is something like JJ+, AKo, AQs. 12 races vs JJ/QQ, 3 times crushing AQs, 9 pure flips vs AK and 6 disasters vs KK/AA. Maybe Hero should fold vs this range.

It is all about the villain read. There is a world of difference between a top 20% isolation call and a top 3% isolation raise. Quite a betting tell - worth quite a lot to know.
 
Interesting situation that comes up more times than is discussed. Thanks for posting.

The case for calling:

Effectively, everyone is short stacked. From the sound of things there's only about 55-60 BBs between the entire table. Doubling up here significantly improves your chances of outlasting the 3 shorter stacks, and greatly improve your chances of eventually winning first place.

In short, you need to accumulate chips. You will not find a better opportunity to accomplish this. It sucks that the primary villian is the only one at the table that can bust you, but that's poker.

The case for folding:

The only reason to fold is to guarantee that you'll still be in the tournament at start of the next deal. Logically, having a few more 'M's in your stack than the other three short stacks should improve your chances of laddering up. But, one or more of them could chip up in the next couple of orbits - or you could go card dead. It's not much of a stretch to have to fold 15 or 20 hands in a row... and in a 5 handed game, that will decimate your stack in a hurry.

So this is a clear call.

As to their holdings:

UTG's holding doesn't concern us - hopefully they don't have any of our outs.

The chip leader's shove feels like an isolation raise - they likely hold a strong hand but is far less likely to win against multiple opponents. The shove minimizes his exposure if they lose to only the short stack.

They could also have an ultra premium hand - which would be unfortunate. Given the shallow nature of everyone's stacks, they may just figure that any raise is effectively going to put everyone else all in... so they just shove and be done with it.
 
Meme Creator_1565671125563.jpg
 
CraigT78 said:
I'm folding and watching players fall.
Click to expand...
^^ This. UTG could have almost anything -- which includes many hands favored over hero's AKo -- but the real threat here is UTG+1, who can bust you even if UTG wins the hand. By just watching the all-in action, you either lock up a cash with the second-biggest stack at the table, or become the chip leader. Both are good outcomes for a league event. I might be tempted to call if it were a stand-alone event, since incremental increases are less important.

Chippy McChiperson said:
Normally there’s a cash game going in case I bust, but all the main cash players either busted out way early and didn’t want to wait around, or went very deep, so nothing to fall back on. Also, we’re playing with my chips, so I’ve got to wait around til the end no matter what.
Click to expand...
^^ Not that it should theoretically come into play, but those are both extra icing on the cake for folding. :)
 
let's assum that UTG shoves his 4 BB 100% (asking my self why he hasn't found a spot earlier) and UTG+1 shoves 20% according to @DrStrange than we have a 48% chance of winning. Personally I think the hand range of UTG+1 is lower than 20%. 20% means that he moves all in with hands like T9s, J9s, Q8s, A8o. Is he really willing to move all in with this hands when 4 players are left to act. Esp. Hero can really hurt him. And as OP says UTG+1 isnt really an agressiv player.

If I think about all this I dont see a reason to shove my stack of 15 BB all in on a risky spot like this.

So FOLD
 
I'm more worried if UTG+1 flats to be honest.

My default line would be to call here unless I've got a very strong read that this player will also jam in this spot with AA + KK as well as the hands he's less certain of. The over jam screams "my hand is good not great nobody else call".

That, plus blockers and extra chips in the pot makes it a call for me. Especially if the blocking jam is in villains playbook.

Gotta crack some eggs to make an omelette.
 
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