AK on the bubble (1 Viewer)

What do you do?

  • Total voters
    51
Results don’t matter but I’m pretty stoked that 45% of the fine folks here think this is a fold and even more are actually going into deep analysis and agonizing a bit over this decision. Poker isn’t dead, not by a long shot!
 
I think the odds of villian having the same or worse is just too much to fold. Does anyone have access to a solver for this?
 
Surprised nobody's mentioned big stack's re-shoving range from UTG+1 vs his potential reshoving range from later positions. I'll post the results at lunch time (in about an hour or two).
 
So 18 people are for calling and 15 are for folding here, at the time of this post. Here are the results:

I thought for a bit, and my reasoning was very similar to @BGinGA earlier in the thread. I knew I'd still be in first or second if I folded, and utg+1 shoving just felt so strong here. If big stack was on the button or in the little blind maybe his range (in my best guess) would carry more hands I dominate, but i don't want to be most likely flipping and potentially go out in 5th when I still have a relatively strong stack.

So I folded, utg had 88, utg+1 had QQ. Flop came K high, with another K on the river, and I would've won a huge pot, but as it were I still had a decent sized stack.
 
Chippy McChiperson said:
So 18 people are for calling and 15 are for folding here, at the time of this post. Here are the results:

I thought for a bit, and my reasoning was very similar to @BGinGA earlier in the thread. I knew I'd still be in first or second if I folded, and utg+1 shoving just felt so strong here. If big stack was on the button or in the little blind maybe his range (in my best guess) would carry more hands I dominate, but i don't want to be most likely flipping and potentially go out in 5th when I still have a relatively strong stack.

So I folded, utg had 88, utg+1 had QQ. Flop came K high, with another K on the river, and I would've won a huge pot, but as it were I still had a decent sized stack.
Click to expand...
Man, so gross lol. I still don't think it was a bad fold but that does sting.
 
This was a huge inflection point in the tournament. If you're only calling off your stack here with aces or kings, then you may as well fold every hand blindly when there's that much action in front of you.

All the stacks are shallow so it becomes a card catching contest now, ranges hardly play a factor anymore. If you flame out, you flame out. But AK is too good to pass up. Onto the other thread now!
 
Kain8 said:
This was a huge inflection point in the tournament. If you're only calling off your stack here with aces or kings, then you may as well fold every hand blindly when there's that much action in front of you.

All the stacks are shallow so it becomes a card catching contest now, ranges hardly play a factor anymore. If you flame out, you flame out. But AK is too good to pass up. Onto the other thread now!
Click to expand...

I mean, one all-in and I'm probably never folding AK, but the 2nd all-in UTG+1 is one of the very few scenarios I can envision myself possibly folding in this spot.
 
Funny, i ran these before seeing the results. But AK is only 34% 3-way vs 88 & AJ; and 38% vs 88 & QJ. [Edit - and also 36% vs. QQ & 88.]

Screenshot_2019-08-13-15-28-46.png
Screenshot_2019-08-13-15-28-29.png
 
Klobberer said:
Fold. I don't call off my chips on a draw, unless it has other outs or I'm super short stacked. I'll get it all in if it puts pressure on the other players, but not on a call.
Click to expand...
Ok but how often in this situation are the villains also on a draw? No way I would have folded this. Too likely that worst case is you take 5th and too often you win the hand and are in great position to win the whole thing.
 
Bigger question Bill... Where did you finish? I bet minimum top 3, good fold! I couldn't agree more than with our buddy @Klobberer ... A high pair no question but it was obvious you would need help! Great decision and I hope you won the whole thing buddy! Perfect example was our mini meetup... First hand final table Buffalo raises 3BB I'm short stacked see AK... I push he has 44 and destroyed my AK, from last position I had time to look at a few more hands, I still had about 4BB at the time, short stacked obviously a different scenario, honestly does anyone feel like AKo actually pays out? I have had absolutely horrible luck with it over the years!
 
BGinGA said:
Define profitable, long-term in a league setting.
Click to expand...
I'm strictly talking about chip profitable. But I think I would still call in a league setting because the immediate prize pool still has a lot of weight and we only get knocked out of the big stacks beats us.

We certainly have the range of the short stack beat. It's close with the big stack. If we give him a range of AJ+, 77+, then we are slightly ahead. If he doesn't shove with AJo, then we are slightly behind. I think it's just too good a spot to pass up. While ICM and in this case league points play a part, I generally think that they are a bit overrated.

Just my opinion.
 

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