10NL Blitz on ACR: Do you call this river jam? (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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Folds to CO who RFI 2.2 BB (standard sizing) and then folds to Hero in BB with QQ. Hero 3! to 9.5 BB (about 4.5x). V calls.

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Flop comes low and connected. V X. I don't think V has much 7x in range.
Hero bets 1/2 pot for value. Not likely to get better hands to fold but worse can call (e.g. FD).
V does make the call.

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Turn doesnt change very much IMHO except TT makes a set.
V didnt raise flop so not worried about 99 as I think 99 would raise flop with the FD on the flop.
V X and Hero bets 1/2 pot again for value. Again Hero thinks worse will call.

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V X raises to 42 BB - just over 4x IP. Seems like larger than normal sizing of 3x IP.
Hero is losing to some hands that might play this way like AA / KK with a spade, raising now with the club draw out there but I think it's likely those hands would have 4! pre. Definitely could be TT for value (3 combos) or a club draw like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, etc. of clubs or maybe a spade draw not liking the club draw. So several draws. Could also be 88 turning open ended with a boat draw.
Hero cant fold QQ yet so makes the call. Only 3 combos of TT and maybe 88, lots of club and maybe spade draws as bluffs here.

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River pairs the board, Hero X and V jams. Hero?

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I'm folding, I don't see somebody shoving a bricked flush draw on a paired board on the flop.

I don't think your reasoning taking 99 out of his range makes sense - if I flop top boat with a flush draw and straight draw heavy board I'm gonna check call as long as I can and let my opponent make his hand. 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of TT, one combo of 77. I think 88 as well as JJ just take their showdown value on a double paired board, so his only bluffs that make sense are missed clubs as spades are probably raising the flop not turn IMO.
 
It feels like he has a suited A flush draw but trying to represent trips to get you off a better A or any pocket pair. Without any history with V hard to know. Are you willing to call and be short stacked if you are wrong? Or do you make the disciplined fold and stay 2nd in chips? I vote for the fold. I think there are better spots to make a stand.
 
I'm folding, I don't see somebody shoving a bricked flush draw on a paired board on the flop.

I don't think your reasoning taking 99 out of his range makes sense - if I flop top boat with a flush draw and straight draw heavy board I'm gonna check call as long as I can and let my opponent make his hand. 3 combos of 99, 3 combos of TT, one combo of 77. I think 88 as well as JJ just take their showdown value on a double paired board, so his only bluffs that make sense are missed clubs as spades are probably raising the flop not turn IMO.
You're right - I wasnt thinking that 99 would have made a boat on the flop. Duh. So we should definitely keep 99 in range!
 
It feels like he has a suited A flush draw but trying to represent trips to get you off a better A or any pocket pair. Without any history with V hard to know. Are you willing to call and be short stacked if you are wrong? Or do you make the disciplined fold and stay 2nd in chips? I vote for the fold. I think there are better spots to make a stand.
This is a cash game hand so if I'm wrong I can just reload!
 
I don't think turn raise completely knocks out 99. With two flush draws available it makes some sense to raise now to not lose value of flush comes on river since it looks a lot like you aren't going to have many FDs here. And it's hard for you to fold an overpair here to a raise given the way you have played this.

I think 7x still plays this way too on river as what Ts do you have 3 betting from the BB except TT?

I don't see many bluffs here. If he's going to bluff it's a lot of 9s being turned into bluffs I think. But most people don't have it in them to do that.

Weird spot because we don't have many better hands that get here as played.

I don't think this flop is a mandatory c-bet FWIW. But given you don't have a backdoor FD, I can see leaning towards bet a bit more. But this flop really favors him over you. He has nut advantage so m not sure playing for 3 streets of value here is the play when you can't really have 7x or even presumably all 99 combos.
 

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