Who's the bigger donk? (1 Viewer)

[MrBo]

Monthly league tournament last night.. Both Hero and Villain (on Hero's direct right) have a fairly tight-solid image and did not tangle too much earlier on, but have played a few hands within last 45 minutes or so, with both in the area of 15-20BB stacks:

1) Folded to Villain in SB, who raised 3x, Hero folded BB.
2) Villain raised 2x on button (600 to 1200), Hero 3-bet from SB to 4200, Villain called and folded to a Hero shove on 456r flop.
3) Villain raised from EP (I think it was 2x) and Hero 3-bet, Villain folded.
4) Folded to Villain in SB, who completes, Hero checks option, flop is A24 all diamonds. Villain check-calls half-pot bet, turn is a non-diamond 6 and it goes check-check. River is a non-diamond 10, Villain check-folded to about a half-pot bet.

Other than hands #1 and 4, Hero and Villain don't have a ton of blind-vs-blind history, and there's little reason to think a leveling-war is brewing between the two.

The Hand in Question:
Blinds are at 400/800 and Hero has around 15k, Villain has around 12k.
Folds around to Villain in SB, who completes. Hero is in BB with and fairly quickly announces all-in.
Villain snap-calls with .

And the donk award goes to...???

 

[Mr Tree]

Monthly league tournament last night.. Both Hero and Villain (on Hero's direct right) have a fairly tight-solid image and did not tangle too much earlier on, but have played a few hands within last 45 minutes or so, with both in the area of 15-20BB stacks:

1) Folded to Villain in SB, who raised 3x, Hero folded BB.
2) Villain raised 2x on button (600 to 1200), Hero 3-bet from SB to 4200, Villain called and folded to a Hero shove on 456r flop.
3) Villain raised from EP (I think it was 2x) and Hero 3-bet, Villain folded.
4) Folded to Villain in SB, who completes, Hero checks option, flop is A24 all diamonds. Villain check-calls half-pot bet, turn is a non-diamond 6 and it goes check-check. River is a non-diamond 10, Villain check-folded to about a half-pot bet.

Other than hands #1 and 4, Hero and Villain don't have a ton of blind-vs-blind history, and there's little reason to think a leveling-war is brewing between the two.

The Hand in Question:
Blinds are at 400/800 and Hero has around 15k, Villain has around 12k.
Folds around to Villain in SB, who completes. Hero is in BB with and fairly quickly announces all-in.
Villain snap-calls with .

And the donk award goes to...???

Both IMO. Hero has 19 big blinds or an m of 12.5. His stack is way too big relative to the blinds to put 80% of it at risk for 1600 chips.

Also calling for your tournament life with QJ is pretty atrocious considering villain could get away relatively cheaply.

Pretty much bad play all around IMO

 

[Steverino]

It's possible villain saw something in hero that made him think he was good, hence the snap call. In our monthly game, some players get called down to the river seemingly without reason because of the way they've played certain hands. Still not a good play, but maybe an explanation for it.

 

[upNdown]

And the donk award goes to...???

Whomever lost that last hand, obviously.

 

[tentoesdown]

I'd say he is, pretty clear shove pre with his stack size. Limp/calling jam here w QJo is pretty thin imo and I'd prefer it with hands slightly stronger than QJo (KQo for example would be a better candidate, but even then I'd probably just pile it).

Your play is totally standard vs a sb limp w that stack size, so well played. He's limp/folding a tonne to your jam so you can go bananas in this spot generally.

 

[Mr Tree]

I'd say he is, pretty clear shove pre with his stack size. Limp/calling jam here w QJo is pretty thin imo and I'd prefer it with hands slightly stronger than QJo (KQo for example would be a better candidate, but even then I'd probably just pile it).

Your play is totally standard vs a sb limp w that stack size, so well played. He's limp/folding a tonne to your jam so you can go bananas in this spot generally.

If this is your standard play then you are setting yourself to be extremely exploitable for big pots by anyone who has an ounce of observation skills and a real hand.

 

[tentoesdown]

If this is your standard play then you are setting yourself to be extremely exploitable for big pots by anyone who has an ounce of observation skills and a real hand.

This is 12bb eff poker bvb, once you get caught and have to showdown a weaker hand that you jammed pre, you obv need to adjust, but even then I doubt the majority of players will adjust accordingly to try to exploit, and ppl getting dealt a "real hand" isn't gonna happen often enough for his jams in BB to become unprofitable

 

[Mr Tree]

This is 12bb eff poker bvb, once you get caught and have to showdown a weaker hand that you jammed pre, you obv need to adjust, but even then I doubt the majority of players will adjust accordingly to try to exploit, and ppl getting dealt a "real hand" isn't gonna happen often enough for his jams in BB to become unprofitable

He has 15 big and an m of 10. This is early for shove or fold range for him as a well. This is ascribing red zone poker when neither player is there yet.

 

[tentoesdown]

This is ascribing red zone poker when neither player is there yet.

I'm out

 

[Mr Tree]

I'm out

Hey if you think an m of ten is shove zone then feel free, but I think your range of shoving for stack to pot ratios is way out of whack.

 

[tentoesdown]

It isn't, I've done the math on all these shove spots, I can post the calcs for this specific spot tonight and show you how profitable it is to jam wide here in the BB vs a SB limp range that is limp/calling a narrow range of hands at this stack depth

And fwiw it's also lower variance to jam Q9 here than to check behind and take a flop, as you're gonna take down the blinds and antes so often.

 

[kirchhausen]

How close to the money were you, or were you already in the money?

Either way it's a bad call by Villain, but my evaluation of heros play is affected by that. You can get a lot of chips exploiting the money bubble.

 

[Mr Tree]

How often do you think you are getting called and by what hands?

Let's say you fold out 90% of hands. That nets you .9 x 1600 = $1440.

Ok so what kind of range do you think calls your shove?

I just did quick math assuming all pairs 8s or better player all aces A10 plus.

I'm coming up with a win ratio of 29% against this range. That means you win an average of $6960 (.29 x 24000 eff all in) and lose $17,040 for a net of - $10,080 when called and -$8640 overall. The huge losses when you are called bury the small gains from winning he blinds unless you think they will call your shove with a hugely wide range.

 

[Mr Tree]

How often do you think you are getting called and by what hands?

Let's say you fold out 90% of hands. That nets you .9 x 1600 = $1440.

Ok so what kind of range do you think calls your shove?

I just did quick math assuming all pairs 8s or better player all aces A10 plus.

I'm coming up with a win ratio of 29% against this range. That means you win an average of $6960 (.29 x 24000 eff all in) and lose $17,040 for a net of - $10,080 when called and -$8640 overall. The huge losses when you are called bury the small gains from winning he blinds unless you think they will call your shove with a hugely wide range.

Actually just realized I forgot to net the loss side down to 10% which makes it -$1,008 to $1440 overall or + $432 so maybe I'm wrong if these numbers are anywhere near correct. Still seems like a lot of risk to pick up the blinds to me.

 

[kirchhausen]

How often do you think you are getting called and by what hands?

Let's say you fold out 90% of hands. That nets you .9 x 1600 = $1440.

Ok so what kind of range do you think calls your shove?

I just did quick math assuming all pairs 8s or better player all aces A10 plus.

I'm coming up with a win ratio of 29% against this range. That means you win an average of $6960 (.29 x 24000 eff all in) and lose $17,040 for a net of - $10,080 when called and -$8640 overall. The huge losses when you are called bury the small gains from winning he blinds unless you think they will call your shove with a hugely wide range.

Don't you have to multiply the -$10,080 x.1 since v is only calling 10% of the time? If so overall ev based on your numbers is $1440-$1008, or $432.

 

[MrBo]

Let me add some info that might be useful:

1) We started with about 27-28 players and were down to 19 or 20 I believe, though still playing at 3 tables. So still a ways from the money.

2) In general, concepts of push-fold BB ranges and M are not considerations of the majority of players in this league. There are typically many <10BB stacks left in the late stages of the game, particularly players who are hoping to move up the points ladder. I've seen quite a few who are willing to limp/fold or raise/fold pre after committing >25% of their stack. This is my first time playing with Villain, so I'm not sure if this generalization applies to him. From the few hours of playing with him though, I pegged him as the type to open for a raise from the SB with medium-strong holdings and limp with pretty much anything else, including hands like QJo, suited connectors, and trash hands.

3) At the time I did underestimate Villain's stack by a bit, and thought he was closer to 10BB than to 15BB.

4) No antes in this tournament, which would have added to the EVishness of a shove.

5) Shoving in a spot like this is not something I do often, but I have done it as a one-off type move in these tournaments before against ABC or weak-tight players with a good deal of success. Particularly when done in the mid-late stages of a tournament, it seems to lead to a lot more walks in the BB when SB knows you're not as likely to check your option. It is however something I'd prefer to do against a shorter stack (but not too short that they're liking to make a desperation call) and when I have a bigger stack myself.

 

[Mr Tree]

Don't you have to multiply the -$10,080 x.1 since v is only calling 10% of the time? If so overall ev based on your numbers is $1440-$1008, or $432.

Realized that (see above) (y) :thumbsup:

 

[Mr Tree]

Let me add some info that might be useful:

1) We started with about 27-28 players and were down to 19 or 20 I believe, though still playing at 3 tables. So still a ways from the money.

2) In general, concepts of push-fold BB ranges and M are not considerations of the majority of players in this league. There are typically many <10BB stacks left in the late stages of the game, particularly players who are hoping to move up the points ladder. I've seen quite a few who are willing to limp/fold or raise/fold pre after committing >25% of their stack. This is my first time playing with Villain, so I'm not sure if this generalization applies to him. From the few hours of playing with him though, I pegged him as the type to open for a raise from the SB with medium-strong holdings and limp with pretty much anything else, including hands like QJo, suited connectors, and trash hands.

3) At the time I did underestimate Villain's stack by a bit, and thought he was closer to 10BB than to 15BB.

4) No antes in this tournament, which would have added to the EVishness of a shove.

5) Shoving in a spot like this is not something I do often, but I have done it as a one-off type move in these tournaments before against ABC or weak-tight players with a good deal of success. Particularly when done in the mid-late stages of a tournament, it seems to lead to a lot more walks in the BB when SB knows you're not as likely to check your option. It is however something I'd prefer to do against a shorter stack (but not too short that they're liking to make a desperation call) and when I have a bigger stack myself.

I guess from my math if the shove from here is a one off for you then it is a totally valid play. However I would add that if it is something you do often I think it could be a killer. If I saw you doing it all the time I would assume your range includes all air and then calling with QJ is totally correct (if very high variance). But if this was an unusual play from you then yes it is a major donk call from him.

 

[MrBo]

I tried some maff myself after the fact and found it to be a +EV shove, though not overwhelmingly so obviously, plus it comes with a high risk-reward ratio. I do think in certain situations you can add EV to a play like this when you take into consideration getting future walks when the blinds are pretty significant, but in a vacuum it's marginal.

In hindsight, knowing that Villain is willing to call off for his tournament life with QJo, probably widens his limp-call range to 22+, Ax, and most Broadway cards, maybe even down to JTo. Given that limp-call range, plus all that hands he's likely to fold, I think shoving here with a similar range isn't bad at all. I don't think I'd pile it in with Q9o in the future, but if he's going to call off so wide I wouldn't hesitate to shove all pairs, Ax hands, and KJ/KQ.

 

[Mr Tree]

I tried some maff myself after the fact and found it to be a +EV shove, though not overwhelmingly so obviously, plus it comes with a high risk-reward ratio. I do think in certain situations you can add EV to a play like this when you take into consideration getting future walks when the blinds are pretty significant, but in a vacuum it's marginal.

In hindsight, knowing that Villain is willing to call off for his tournament life with QJo, probably widens his limp-call range to 22+, Ax, and most Broadway cards, maybe even down to JTo. Given that limp-call range, plus all that hands he's likely to fold, I think shoving here with a similar range isn't bad at all. I don't think I'd pile it in with Q9o in the future, but if he's going to call off so wide I wouldn't hesitate to shove all pairs, Ax hands, and KJ/KQ.

Yeah it's only plus EV considering the opponent is hugely likely to fold. But if it isn't a play you've been showing a lot of based on my math I have to reverse course and say it is defensible. The call is atrocious unless he clearly believes your move is made with any two cards.

 

[MrBo]

Yeah it's only plus EV considering the opponent is hugely likely to fold. But if it isn't a play you've been showing a lot of based on my math I have to reverse course and say it is defensible. The call is atrocious unless he clearly believes your move is made with any two cards.

Thanks for the thorough analysis! I think I'm able to feel okay about the play from a math standpoint and not be results-oriented about it (QJo held up), though I think it's clear that just checking back and taking a flop with a decent holding in position is the much better option in general. One thing also worth mentioning is that if we have a decent skill edge against the field, it'd be much better to not make such an unnecessary high variance move.

 

[Mr Tree]

Thanks for the thorough analysis! I think I'm able to feel okay about the play from a math standpoint and not be results-oriented about it (QJo held up), though I think it's clear that just checking back and taking a flop with a decent holding in position is the much better option in general. One thing also worth mentioning is that if we have a decent skill edge against the field, it'd be much better to not make such an unnecessary high variance move.

Yeah I feel like if you feel good about playing Post flop I'd rather check it in. The upside is small and the downside risk is huge. Plus if you do this regularly and people start calling you with a wider range it switches to being an unprofitable hand quickly.

 

[AlPresidente]

Both villain's actions are terrible. Your only action is questionable. Villain gets the award.

 

[MrBo]

Follw-up generalized question based off of this scenario:

Let's say Villain is ABC TAG with exactly 12BB. Hero has 20BB. Folds to Villain who limps SB. What is a good shove range for Hero in BB? Also, is raise-folding an option?

 

[AlPresidente]

Raise-folding isn't impossible, but I'm in shove or fold mode at 12BB.
Assuming we're early enough in the tournament that ECM doesn't matter and TAG villain calls with top 10% hands, we should shove 100% of ours.

 

[AlPresidente]

Even if villain calls 20%, which isn't a range many TAGs would feel comfortable risking their tournament with, shoving ATC is optimal.
Villain is best served calling about 30% in which case, we're best off shoving top 70%

 

[MrBo]

Even if villain calls 20%, which isn't a range many TAGs would feel comfortable risking their tournament with, shoving ATC is optimal.
Villain is best served calling about 30% in which case, we're best off shoving top 70%

I don't disagree that shoving any 2 in this spot against certain weak-tight types or ABC TAGs isn't +EV, but I don't think I would exercise my option with my entire range. Especially as Mr. Tree says, if you make a habit of it and others pick up on it, you're likely to get trapped by stronger holdings limp-calling much more often.

 

[AlPresidente]

It's not getting trapped by stronger holdings that's the concern, the worry is your opponents adjusting and calling really wide. The tighter your opponent, the more profitable shoving ATC becomes.

 

[Mr Tree]

It's not getting trapped by stronger holdings that's the concern, the worry is your opponents adjusting and calling really wide. The tighter your opponent, the more profitable shoving ATC becomes.

I agree with this. When you do math the play is profitable ONLY because it ensures a fold a high percentage of the time. As soon as your opponents widen their range it's profitability nosedives.

 

[MrBo]

Yeah I didn't just mean trapped by hands like premiums, but more like getting snapped off by any Ace, KTo, etc. that would have great equity against an ATC shove.