- Jul 2, 2020
- Reaction score
- Los Angeles
Playing devil’s advocate here… Is it possible you just had a bad night at the table?
Looking at it this way, you only lost two (400 BB) buyins. Relatively speaking, -2 buyins is completely normal variance. It’s actually to be expected, over the long haul. World-class players lose 2+ buyins all the time.
It’s the stakes which make the losses seem like an exceptionally huge amount. But for someone bankrolled for 50/100 — let alone a room prepared to extend credit to multiple players at that level, along with the vast overhead of the venue described — well, it’s honestly pretty trivial.
Sure, at a normal casino which limits you to more like 150-250 BB buyins at lower stakes, that’s more like 3-5 buyins. It’s a bad night by any measure. But it’s not uncommon in poker.
I can remember losing 1K on bad day playing 1/2 with a $300 max buyin… 3.333 buyins. There was no fraud involved. I was running bad, and playing tilted.
You might say: Well, the Armenians returned the money, so that proves they were cheating.
But if they did, couldn’t that just demonstrate that they decided you are a pain in their ass, siccing private eyes on their illegal game — so they decided it was worth two buy-ins at their nosebleed stakes to be rid of you?
I’ve certainly had situations (only a very few) in professional life where a client was such a PITA that I preferred to “fire” the client and refund their money completely than to continue dealing with them. I’m talking here about someone who you know is never going to stop being impossible, making the income not worth the headaches. But then, I’m kind of like that. (TBH the look on their faces when you walk away is well worth it…)
Ditto in my nonprofit work. As the director of a large membership organization, there was always 1% of members who drove me and the Board crazy. It only happened a few times over almost a decade, but there were instances where things reached a point where we expelled certain members, despite their other value to the org, because they spent so much time sowing division that their contributions were not worth the hassles. (In one instance, I suspected the problem member was a plant of the company we were challenging in a regulatory review. But she might have just been an idiot. Either way, we were better off without her in our group.)
Just sayin’. I think every possibility should be considered.
I’ve been sitting here for about 10 minutes trying to figure out how to respond to this note. I now understand what the tone was in your previous posts, and I guess that’s ok.
Just as a reminder, I started this thread literally discussing exactly your hypothesis— how do you know when to walk away from a bad night, just wanting to get different people’s perspective on it.
So, let’s start with an answer to your question.
Is it possible you just had a bad night at the table?
The answer, had you asked me this prior to us contracting our investigator, would have been an unequivocal yes.
Now, the answer is more complicated. It’s entirely possible that, regardless of whether the game was fixed, that I was playing badly. In fact, I know I was tilting at specific times. So there’s that.
But the underlying accusation in your note (and it is definitely that, no matter how many soft phrases you surround it with) requires me to then believe the following two possibilities are in fact real:
1. The investigator we hired (whom we have used before, to extremely effective value) made up a bunch of stuff, including some details which would be incredibly hard to do that with… for example, the names of 6 other marks, and the exact amounts they were taken for (lost). One of the marks is an acquaintance of mine, so he and I grabbed a late drink last night and he verified the amount, and recalled similar bad beats.
But, let’s just say our contracted guy did morph information from a real game and real losses into something that seemed seedy, because it endears him to us, he gets a bonus, etc. If that’s true, then the second possibility below is even more frightening.
2. If 1 is true, (and it has to be, for your question to be answered in the affirmative,) then the following must be true: My head of security, who has been with me for close to 4 years, with 15 years in an elite division of the armed forces and then a decade in foreign intelligence, followed by 5 years in private security — he contracted an individual who, rather than be effective, made up some story, and tried to deceive both of us? It would also mean that his own conversation with one of the game runners that he relayed to me would have been made up.
The more I think about it, the more confused I am by the purpose / intent of your note. I didn’t start this thread to talk about an investigation or expose some crooked game. I started sharing what was happening because people seemed interested, and because of all the time I spend on here.
If you had posted this note PRIOR to me hiring someone, and prior to getting information through the process, then that makes total sense. I could have just as easily not posted any of the details on here; I only did so because it felt like a fun / interesting / somewhat fascinating ride I was letting fellow PCFers “sweat” me on.
Either way — yes, it’s possible that I had a bad night, but not probable that the game I was in wasn’t fixed.
Why? Because I’d like to believe the resources I have brought on to protect my interests are solid, and trustworthy, so I believe them when they say something to me.
I have to say; your post actually makes it look like you feel sorry for the game runners; you compared them to people who run non-profits, and me to a meddlesome board member or funder they can’t wait to get rid of. I’m sorry your animosity of me (someone you’ve never met) runs that deep. Not sure what I can do to fix that, but do let me know.