Tricky spot with J8s OOP (who would have thought?)

Ben

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Scene: 8-handed home $1/$2 game. This is only Hero's second time playing in it but have played with all of the players at the table at least a couple of times in other locations. This game plays "small" - initial buyins are $100 and max rebuy is $200. No straddles and open raises are usually $7-$8. You will only see a $15 raise if the whole table limps first, never a $20 raise. That said, this is a pretty tough game - overall play quality is above average and especially tonight, there isn't a real weak spot at the table. All villains are at least reasonably competent.

Cast of characters:

UTG ($80) is a reasonable semi-LAG who likes to splash around, but doesn't usually go crazy. Prone to the occasional big blunder but generally has the goods if he puts a lot of money in.

CO ($315) has a ton of history with Hero. Generally fairly tight and careful, but has a high aggro factor when he is involved - bets a lot, raises a lot, folds a lot, rarely calls That said, most of his bets and raises are way too small - routinely bets 1/4 pot and makes min- or near-min-raises in a wide variety of situations. Also becomes much looser and more aggressive against Hero. Unlikely that he will stack off on a bluff, but doesn't necessarily have to have an ultra-premium hand to put in big money. (Although, he did run the sickest bluff I've ever seen a couple months ago against another player...) Definitely some leveling going on.

BTN ($180) is a gambly, sticky semi-LAG, semi-station. Very experienced but loves to "play." Hates folding any perceived equity and doesn't get scared when the pots get bigger and dollar amounts go up. Pure bluffs are rare but not averse to firing a big bet in a marginal spot if he thinks he is ahead. Ends up with his whole stack in the middle more often than the vast majority of players - for better or worse.

SB (covers all) is Hero. Lots of history with CO, who respects my game but loves to try to outfox me. Limited history with others, but enough to know that I'm definitely not a nit - they've seen some big bluffs, and big wins without premium holdings - beyond that I'm not too sure what they think. So far tonight I've been running very good and shown down the goods several times in big pots. Also won a $150 pot against BTN earlier with ace-high after 3-betting with A7o and c-bet jamming against his flush draw that bricked.

BB ($250) is a solid TAG and definitely the tightest player at the table. Not a "weak" player at all but isn't going to put a lot of money in without a very good hand.

Action:

UTG limps for $2. Folds to CO who raises to $7. BTN calls. Hero calls with :jd::8d: (yeah yeah fold pre whatever, that wouldn't be a very interesting thread, would it?) BB calls. UTG calls. 5 players to the flop. (Pot $35)

Flop is :jh::td::9h:. Checks around to CO. CO is pondering his action and BTN, thinking CO has checked, tosses out $25 (which will be binding if CO then decides to check.) Instead CO bets $13, allowing BTN to take his bet back and act as he chooses. After a minute's thought, BTN decides to just call. Action on Hero, with BB and UTG left to act behind - fold, call, or raise???
 

detroitdad

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call.........your ahead of behind CO and had of BTN at this stage. Or at least my guess anyways.
 

atomiktoaster

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The jack seems more like a liability than a strength at this point. I don't know if we can count on the 8 if it goes Brick-Brick (though we might have enough odds to call.) A, K, Q or 8 is deadly 5 handed here. Call if you think you can get a chance at the turn without someone raising behind and hope for the 7.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Seems like the perfect opportunity to squeeze. If CO had the goods he would have Czech raised and if button was super strong he would have made it like $50. you may not have the best hand, but if you make it $65 or so you should be able scoop the pot.
 

detroitdad

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Seems like the perfect opportunity to squeeze. If CO had the goods he would have Czech raised and if button was super strong he would have made it like $50. you may not have the best hand, but if you make it $65 or so you should be able scoop the pot.

Change my call answer. This is better :)
 

Forty4

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This is very interesting to me that the CO bet half of what the BTN threw out. Wondering if he was hoping to get raised and maybe a caller or two before he 3-bet. For that reason I think you need to try the squeeze but know that if CO jams the math might work out that you have to call. I think if you make it $75 you can get away from the hand if he jams, we are in a better spot because he has the second most, if the BTN jams I think we have to reluctantly call. I really wish we could bet something like $55 and gain enough info but I don't think that's enough unless this game really does play that small/sheepish that they would fold to $42 (~3-1). I'm thinking $55 would just get called and then you have to keep firing out of position with no more information, if you check they are going to (should) bet.
 

Ben

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Alrighty then.

UTG limps for $2. Folds to CO who raises to $7. BTN calls. Hero calls with :jd::8d:. BB calls. UTG calls. 5 players to the flop. (Pot $35)

Flop is :jh::td::9h:. Checks around to CO. CO is pondering his action and BTN, thinking CO has checked, tosses out $25 (which will be binding if CO then decides to check.) Instead CO bets $13, allowing BTN to take his bet back and act as he chooses. After a minute's thought, BTN decides to just call. Hero strongly considers the squeeze but after considering that there may be players in the Republic of Turkmenistan still in this hand and the stickiness of the villains, and the fact that this could get him pot-committed in a hurry in some really ugly spots, decides to just call here with nice odds. BB and UTG both fold. $74 in the pot, 3 handed with CO and BTN to the turn.

Turn is :7s: (giggity.) Hero is first to act. Now what?
 

Forty4

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^^^^Agree

s/b nice pot for us unless the KQ bites us. Which I'm seeing.
 

atomiktoaster

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Jam. If they're playing the top end of the straight, make them pay if they want to see the river. The reads make it seem like they both were too passive to have KQ for the flopped straight. Kx seems very likely still though (Khxh?).
 

DrStrange

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Fold pre, but that hand does look sweet. . . . there are times I would call for $5 too.

Flop: I rate it fold > raise > call. That board is really wet, I am not sure Hero gets folds out of a host of drawing hands or pair+ draw hands. The bluff is situational, I wouldn't try it vs any crowd I play with but that is because I know how hyper sticky they can be. (and there are potential RIO problems looming)

Turn: Hero shouldn't check with Button in the hand ready to pay off. Hero isn't going to like it if CO wakes up. Still I am betting with eyes on button's stack. Button has $160 left and pot is $74 - bet what button will call since a lot of his range is going to be draws that are not paying a river bet. Let' try $80.

DrStrange
 

Ben

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The good doctor hit my thinking on the head, pretty much - check/jam looks good but a check-through would be really, amazingly, horrifically bad here - and that 7 is bound to scare people. Also what happens when CO bets his silly $20 or whatever? Do I still just jam it all in there?

UTG limps for $2. Folds to CO who raises to $7. BTN calls. Hero calls with :jd::8d:. BB calls. UTG calls. 5 players to the flop. (Pot $35)

Flop is :jh::td::9h:. Checks around to CO. CO is pondering his action and BTN, thinking CO has checked, tosses out $25 (which will be binding if CO then decides to check.) Instead CO bets $13, allowing BTN to take his bet back and act as he chooses. After a minute's thought, BTN decides to just call. Hero strongly considers the squeeze but after considering that there may be players in the Republic of Turkmenistan still in this hand and the stickiness of the villains, and the fact that this could get him pot-committed in a hurry in some really ugly spots, decides to just call here with nice odds. BB and UTG both fold. $74 in the pot, 3 handed with CO and BTN to the turn.

Turn is :7s: (giggity.) Hero is first to act and leads for $50. CO raises to $150 (note: this is not a minraise...) Button folds. CO has another $143 behind after the raise. NOW what?!?!?
 

Chippy McChiperson

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The hand he's trying to rep is KQ I suppose, but what a weird line to take if that's what he actually has. I think you have to hold your nose and jam it in here. He may be free rolling, or he may have a set, (and yes I suppose he may have KQ) but if he has it nice hand well played.
 

jbutler

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get it in obv. is CO really dumb enough to have not taken the opportunity to C/R on the flop with the nuts and two hearts on board? i guess he could have exactly KQhh, but even then why wouldn't he want to min-raise just to juice the pot.
 

DrStrange

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It isn't normally the case that a weird oot action dominates my thinking, but here it seems that it might. CO had a chance on the flop to simply say "check" and get a $25 bet from button. He chose instead to bet half of button's out of turn action and let him reconsider. I have three schools of though:
* CO wasn't paying any attention and had no clue just bet 1/3 pot.
* CO was blocking and tried to see if he could get a half price card.
* CO is being tricky and hopes to induce button to raise by "waving a red flag" in front of him.

Hero likely has a ton more information about the personal dynamics here, I am just guessing.

I have a hard time putting villain on KQ (or Q8 for that matter) here and then not accepting the $25 bet from button. Given that, I think Hero should jam (but it is close enough that I can't fault a fold too much).

Villain is calling the bulk of the time. Hero shouldn't be shocked to see villain is on a freeroll or on a monster draw.

Get lucky, win the pot -=- DrStrange

PS This has the potential to be really funny if CO does in fact have KQ. . . .
 

Ben

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I have three schools of though:
* CO wasn't paying any attention and had no clue just bet 1/3 pot.
* CO was blocking and tried to see if he could get a half price card.
* CO is being tricky and hopes to induce button to raise by "waving a red flag" in front of him.

It definitely wasn't option 1. Options 2 and 3 are both distinct possibilities (although some or even all of it may be that button made an honest mistake, is the host, and CO is a nice enough guy to let him off the hook and just pretend it didn't happen and proceed accordingly.)
 

stocky

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What's CO usual open range? Any idea.

Tough hand because it's hard to put him on a hand that doesn't check the flop and let buttons bet stand with the draws out there.

As played I'm probably jamming then kicking myself when CO snaps with KhQh or something similar.
 

bergs

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Jam. If he has KQ it's a cooler than the non flushing 7 came.
 

DrStrange

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I wouldn't be too happy getting free rolled here. :ah: :8h: could merit a $7 preflop bet. Putting in $300 and getting back 80 cents on the dollar is a -$60 hit.

Better than drawing dead to be sure though.

DrStrange
 

stocky

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I wouldn't be too happy getting free rolled here. :ah: :8h: could merit a $7 preflop bet. Putting in $300 and getting back 80 cents on the dollar is a -$60 hit.

Better than drawing dead to be sure though.

DrStrange

This was something a was thinking also. Same straight with flush draws.
 

Ronoh

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Smells like he hopes you have the 8 to me. You're either dead, being freerolled, chopping or he could have AQhh... not really sure what else he would be doing here.
 

jbutler

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Go back and read Ben's description of CO in the OP. It's just delusional monsters under the bed thinking to think we're behind such a player's range in this spot. Sure, he could have whatever but against that villain with that description with these stack sizes with this action on this board anything but jamming is a huge mistake.
 

Ben

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What's CO usual open range? Any idea.

With one limper from the CO I would guess something like 66+, A9+, any suited ace or suited broadway, possibly some suited connectors and/or unsuited broadways (not sure if he would limp with those, or raise.)

Smells like he hopes you have the 8 to me. You're either dead, being freerolled, chopping or he could have AQhh... not really sure what else he would be doing here.

So what would you actually do in that case? No pokerstove at the table sir. ;)
 

Ronoh

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Go back and read Ben's description of CO in the OP. It's just delusional monsters under the bed thinking to think we're behind such a player's range in this spot. Sure, he could have whatever but against that villain with that description with these stack sizes with this action on this board anything but jamming is a huge mistake.
I've read villain's description... and think it can go partially out the window on this hand, with this action, on this board. He has exactly $20 invested when Ben leads out for $50 on the turn on a funky board, I just don't see it.
So what would you actually do in that case? No pokerstove at the table sir. ;)
I don't use such things. You've played with me, you know I can find a fold here. Don't know for certain that I would... but I could.
 
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DrStrange

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There are so many hands with potential here besides the mean ones. We are told the villain makes strange sizing decisions and looks to tangle with Hero. I can't find a fold vs t his guy where I might feel differently vs another villain. And Hero has the benefit of the funny play on the flop that helps us limit the absolute worst prospects.

At least Villain isn't hopping up, dancing and shouting "sucker fish" if Hero is drawing dead -=- DrStrange
 

jbutler

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I've read villain's description... and think it can go partially out the window on this hand, with this action, on this board. He has exactly $20 invested when Ben leads out for $50 on the turn on a funky board, I just don't see it.

So villain is aggro, rarely calls, raises a lot and in too small amounts, is extra aggro vs hero and doesn't need a premium hand to put money in. What specifically happened here that would make you disregard the above factors literally all of which indicate that villain has a huge non-nut range here?
 

Ronoh

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So villain is aggro, rarely calls, raises a lot and in too small amounts, is extra aggro vs hero and doesn't need a premium hand to put money in. What specifically happened here that would make you disregard the above factors literally all of which indicate that villain has a huge non-nut range here?
The current board and fact that he has so little invested when the turn comes. YMMV
 

jbutler

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The current board and fact that he has so little invested when the turn comes. YMMV

re: board texture, that would be the single factor against all the factors set out by Ben which would militate in favor of him overplaying a hand or turning a hand into a bluff. if you think board texture should be weighted so heavily in this instance that it irons out all other reads on his play, fair enough, just a difference of opinion. but how much or little one has personally invested in a pot on previous streets is irrelevant to any later decisions in a hand.
 

Ben

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I've played with the guy for years, and even I have no idea which one of you is actually right in this particular scenario - both points of view have a lot of merit IMO. Thus the thread. :)
 

trever

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The only way preflop makes sense to me is if CO decided to bet 13 as button bet 25 and he decided to be a kindhearted gentleman and stick with what he intended to do rather than take advantage.

A8s, AhQh, KQ and maybe even K8s are all consistent with his play so far, but sets, and even JQ are plausible given his habits and his history with you.

I'd like to say I would make a tight fold here but it is very close.
 
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