grebe
Full House
We are in position. If he checks, we bet. There is no check-check turn unless we say it's so.Problem is on check-check turns we will have wished we got the money in on the flop.
We are in position. If he checks, we bet. There is no check-check turn unless we say it's so.Problem is on check-check turns we will have wished we got the money in on the flop.
In this situation, I don't know. People are saying that the huge 3-bet should be feared. I kind of feel opposite. I think the big 3-bet suggests at the very least that he doesn't have a monster. If he's got AA or KK, why would he want to scare everybody off with such a big bet? I think it's more likely that he has either the big hands that @kmccormick100 suggested, or even something less (like maybe 33 or 77?) And this is villain specific, but I think most guys are folding the lesser hands to the 4-bet, and often 1010, JJ, and KQ to the 4-bet as well.Honestly, I don't like AQ as a 4 bet. When you get called, you are never good.
I think it's more likely that he has either the big hands that @kmccormick100 suggested, or even something less (like maybe 33 or 77?) And this is villain specific, but I think most guys are folding the lesser hands to the 4-bet, and often 1010, JJ, and KQ to the 4-bet as well.
Weelll, that's not exactly what he said. He said villain would shove instead of flatting out of position, but that doesn't mean villain doesn't have any folds - I inferred that he believes villain would either shove or fold to a 4-bet.That's the problem, the read on the villain that OP provided is that the 4-bet will be met with a shove, which means even without AA and KK it's a lot of coin flips and few dominating positions unless we think villain is 3-betting as wide as A8+ or even some Kx. With the tournament dynamics as they are, hero should not be looking for a flip against the one stack that can bust him.
If the read was there is a hunk of villain's 3 bet range he will fold, I like the 4 bet pre a lot more, but that wasn't the description of villain.
Poker sucksFinal spoiler posted.
I think the only decision point was preflop, and I still say fold and call are very close. Once hero decided to call, all the money was going in one way or another. Villain is surely going to 5-bet shove with that also given the read. Or if villain finds a flat pre contrary to the initial assumption, he's probably shoving that flop.Final spoiler posted.
What he said.I don’t like the shove on the flop, you’re still behind a lot of what I perceive as his preflop BB 4x raise 3bet range - AA, KK, QQ, chopping with some AQs, beating JJ, TT, AK and are in just OK shape against his few nut flush draws. His flop 2/3 bet is also pretty big on a board that doesn’t smack his 3b range. I think I’m flatting the flop and playing AQ as a bluff catcher. In this exact scenario idk if you can get away on the River heart, but turn action would be important.
All that being said, this is why I don’t like playing big bloated pots (generated by a bit PF 3b) against the chip leader when you can pass and pick a better spot, especially in a more substantial tournament with ICM considerations.