Second in Chips 5 handed in a League Tournament. AQo in the C/O (1 Viewer)

[Moxie Mike]

Scenario: 5 handed in an online league tournament game that began with 10 runners. Blinds are 150/300 w/ an ante. HERO is in the C/O with AQo. As to league dynamics: HERO is currently 1st in points after 4/16 events where only results from the best 8 finishes are counted.

Starting stack: 10k. HERO has 26k and is second in chips. All other stacks are under 10k (none on life support) other than the BB, who has 40k.

Reads: BB is a strong player who plays his stack well once accumulated. Solid, TAG/LAG player who adjusts his style to his opponents' tendencies and evolving tournament dynamics. Has won multiple league points championships in previous seasons.

On to he hand (5 handed):

HERO is dealt in the cutoff. UTG folds and HERO raises to 900 (3x). Button folds, as does the SB after timing out due to pervasive connection issues.

BB (stack 40k) raises to 4200 immediately after waiting out the SB's timer.

HERO's options are fold; call; raise reasonable; and jam.

Thoughts?

Spoiler

HERO considers their options and eventually calls. Stack ~21k. Pot: ~8800.

Flop comes .

Villain bets 5500. Pot is 14,300.

HERO Jams.

Villain calls with little hesitation.

HERO is eliminated in 5th place.

Spoiler

The spoiler was posted without revealing the Villain's hole cards in case any additional discussion is warranted. The hand pretty much plays itself once the flop hits the board - although a different line could maybe be considered.

I'll post the Villain's holdings later today.

Spoiler: Final Spoiler

Villain held and made the nuts on the river.

 

[JMC9389]

Call and see what develops. No need to spew when both of you are playing really deep.

Are rebuys still allowed at this point?

 

[upNdown]

It seems like you want to attach some significance to the “fast” 3-bet? I’m all for timing tells, but in this case, I’m not sure you can make anything of it at all. I mean, if it was the small blind, you must have had to wait like 90 seconds, so bb was likely just trying to get things going?
Anyway, I think flatting here seems the least gross. Freaking AQ. I’m not folding it. So it’s flat or 4-bet. It sounds like you’re implying that this guy might have a broad 3-bet range with that stack in this situation? If you think he might be 3-betting light, and if you know he’s good enough to fold, maybe a 4-bet is the way to go. Fuck it, make it 12k. Probably better than 50/50 you take it down right there. If he calls, I guess there are worse things in the world than seeing a flop in position with AQ.

 

[kmccormick100]

That's a huge 3b to almost 5x your raise, honestly unless the villain is a maniac I'm probably just folding and moving on. A BB 3bet with not much dead money in there should be strong period, let alone to a massive size. At 83 big blinds deep, I think I'll have better spots.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Are rebuys still allowed at this point?

No.

Freaking AQ. Fuck it, make it 12k. Probably better than 50/50 you take it down right there. If he calls, I guess there are worse things in the world than seeing a flop in position with AQ.

This is not an opponent will will flat a 4-bet OOP. They'll either fold or jam. If taking a flop in position is the best line in this spot, then calling is more appropriate.

That's a huge 3b to almost 5x your raise, honestly unless the villain is a maniac I'm probably just folding and moving on. A BB 3bet with not much dead money in there should be strong period, let alone to a massive size. At 83 big blinds deep, I think I'll have better spots.

Love this 100%. It's worth mentioning that Villain and HERO have significant live and online history together... and a light 3-bet from the BB in this fashion is absolutely in the Villain's playbook given the history and stack dynamics. Does that change your opinion?

 

[kmccormick100]

No.


This is not an opponent will will flat a 4-bet OOP. They'll either fold or jam. If taking a flop in position is the best line in this spot, then calling is more appropriate.


Love this 100%. It's worth mentioning that Villain and HERO have significant live and online history together... and a light 3-bet from the BB in this fashion is absolutely in the Villain's playbook given the history and stack dynamics. Does that change your opinion?

That’s not a light 3b from the BB in my opinion - if it’s a competent player who understands position and sizing that screams a big hand to me. Let’s say he has TT+, AJ+ and some combos of KQss and A5ss - I feel like anything less is incentivized to just take a flop for 600 more, a 4b in the BB is just strong so often, there’s not enough incentive of free money in the pot to warrant that sizing. Let’s say with the blinds, antes and your open there’s ~1600 in there, he’s putting in 3900 more to win 1600. Also a std 3b, even out of position is going to be something in the 2500-3200 range, 4200 is just so big.

 

[JustinInMN]

Scenario: 5 handed in an online league tournament game that began with 10 runners. Blinds are 150/300 w/ an ante. HERO is in the C/O with AQo. As to league dynamics: HERO is currently 1st in points after 4/16 events where only results from the best 8 finishes are counted.

Is there money involved as well or is this just for league points? In either case, what are the remaining prizes?

 

[warma]

What V’s read of you?

 

[Legend5555]

I feel like regardless of payout and point implications, we can't just be folding AQo as the button raiser vs. a competent BB 3 bet. But 4 betting as the 2nd biggest stack against the biggest stack seems pretty terrible here. We call and try to play a small(ish) pot in position. We will still have an SPR of 3.5 to 1. Definitely room to maneuver post still unless villain's post flop sizes are very large.

 

[JustinInMN]

I feel like regardless of payout and point implications, we can't just be folding AQo as the button raiser vs. a competent BB 3 bet. But 4 betting as the 2nd biggest stack against the biggest stack seems pretty terrible here. We call and try to play a small(ish) pot in position. We will still have an SPR of 3.5 to 1. Definitely room to maneuver post still unless villain's post flop sizes are very large.

I would agree call and fold seem to be the only credible options. However, I think fold deserves a little more consideration here because the villain is the big stack, and aggressive, and the sizing of the 3-bet seems needlessly high, (almost 4x on top of the open raise) and hero's read that he is going to be shoved on if he goes for a 4 bet.

BB is a strong player who plays his stack well once accumulated. Solid, TAG/LAG player who adjusts his style to his opponents' tendencies and evolving tournament dynamics.

If this is my read as hero, I am also going to assume villain is smart enough to know I am the only player at the table that can really hurt him, therefore it is unlikely hero's 3 bet is too light. I would guess it's 88+, AQ+, just to put a range out there. If we think villain is significantly wider, then the 4 bet-call a shove line merits consideration. If not, it's a flat or fold situation clearly to me.

But again, my problem with the flat is we are giving it up on 2/3 of flops. But what's working in hero's favor is I imagine villain is continuing on almost 100% of flops, allowing us to make up some value when we improve and are ahead, and a doubleup in the best case scenario (villain calls it off with 88-JJ on a Q-hi flop for example) vaults hero in to first comfortably.

On the other hand, my ongoing criticism on tournaments resurfaces here that not-losing is rewarded way more often than winning, and the metagame conditions I asked about may tilt this into a "survival fold" as well from my view.

I think as presented this spot is really close, but I am adding a couple of assumptions of my own, of course.

 

[Moxie Mike]

That’s not a light 3b from the BB in my opinion - if it’s a competent player who understands position and sizing that screams a big hand to me. Let’s say he has TT+, AJ+ and some combos of KQss and A5ss - I feel like anything less is incentivized to just take a flop for 600 more, a 4b in the BB is just strong so often, there’s not enough incentive of free money in the pot to warrant that sizing. Let’s say with the blinds, antes and your open there’s ~1600 in there, he’s putting in 3900 more to win 1600. Also a std 3b, even out of position is going to be something in the 2500-3200 range, 4200 is just so big.

Villain knows that HERO's opening range from the C/O in a 5 handed game (with the SB sitting out) with that stack is rather wide - as it should be. HERO will fold fairly frequently to a big 3-bet from the Villain given these dynamic. Villain is trying to induce a fold with this bet sizing... nothing else makes sense. I suspect Villain is not making a move with junk but also isn't holding a monster. Holdings that are likely ahead pre but are often problematic postflop (medium PPs, suited aces, etc.) are most likely.

I would agree call and fold seem to be the only credible options. However, I think fold deserves a little more consideration here because the villain is the big stack, and aggressive, and the sizing of the 3-bet seems needlessly high, (almost 4x on top of the open raise) and hero's read that he is going to be shoved on if he goes for a 4 bet.



If this is my read as hero, I am also going to assume villain is smart enough to know I am the only player at the table that can really hurt him, therefore it is unlikely hero's 3 bet is too light. I would guess it's 88+, AQ+, just to put a range out there. If we think villain is significantly wider, then the 4 bet-call a shove line merits consideration. If not, it's a flat or fold situation clearly to me.

But again, my problem with the flat is we are giving it up on 2/3 of flops. But what's working in hero's favor is I imagine villain is continuing on almost 100% of flops, allowing us to make up some value when we improve and are ahead, and a doubleup in the best case scenario (villain calls it off with 88-JJ on a Q-hi flop for example) vaults hero in to first comfortably.

On the other hand, my ongoing criticism on tournaments resurfaces here that not-losing is rewarded way more often than winning, and the metagame conditions I asked about may tilt this into a "survival fold" as well from my view.

I think as presented this spot is really close, but I am adding a couple of assumptions of my own, of course.

All your assumptions are correct.

Given the situation, HERO and Villain are both virtually guaranteed a top 2 finish as long as they avoid catastrophe. The 3 short stacks aren't on life support yet, but they're going to be methodically ground down to dust with relentless preflop pressure from both Villain and HERO.

The case for jamming: Villain doesn't expect HERO to be as strong as AQ most of the time. This fact, along with the 3-bet sizing suggests Villain most likely holds a second-tier-strength hand. Jamming is a double edged sword... ending the hand and picking up a sizable pot with no resistance is a fantastic result for ICM and metagame aspects. However, a jam will only be called by the Villain with a hand that is tied with or is crushing AQ. So if the Villain calls, HERO is flipping or seriously behind when they're already in a dominant position. Getting felted in this spot would be a catastrophe.

Is there money involved as well or is this just for league points? In either case, what are the remaining prizes?

The entry fee is $25 of which $20 goes into the night's prize pool. 10 handed, the top 3 get paid.

What V’s read of you?

Strong, competent player who doesn't make a lot of catastrophic mistakes.

 

[Legend5555]

I would agree call and fold seem to be the only credible options. However, I think fold deserves a little more consideration here because the villain is the big stack, and aggressive, and the sizing of the 3-bet seems needlessly high, (almost 4x on top of the open raise) and hero's read that he is going to be shoved on if he goes for a 4 bet.



If this is my read as hero, I am also going to assume villain is smart enough to know I am the only player at the table that can really hurt him, therefore it is unlikely hero's 3 bet is too light. I would guess it's 88+, AQ+, just to put a range out there. If we think villain is significantly wider, then the 4 bet-call a shove line merits consideration. If not, it's a flat or fold situation clearly to me.

But again, my problem with the flat is we are giving it up on 2/3 of flops. But what's working in hero's favor is I imagine villain is continuing on almost 100% of flops, allowing us to make up some value when we improve and are ahead, and a doubleup in the best case scenario (villain calls it off with 88-JJ on a Q-hi flop for example) vaults hero in to first comfortably.

On the other hand, my ongoing criticism on tournaments resurfaces here that not-losing is rewarded way more often than winning, and the metagame conditions I asked about may tilt this into a "survival fold" as well from my view.

I think as presented this spot is really close, but I am adding a couple of assumptions of my own, of course.

There are a lot of situations in poker where you have to give up on a lot of flops. This just isn't an extreme enough situation to warrant folding AQo in position on a very 3 bet happy configuration IMO when villain can have some worse hands and even some bluffs. If we are folding AQo, then villain can just 3 bet some absurd % of hands here against us. Whether he will or not is question. But either way I'd be shocked if theory ever said to fold this.

 

[JustinInMN]

The entry fee is $25 of which $20 goes into the night's prize pool. 10 handed, the top 3 get paid.

Appreciate the added color, I think that tips me to a fold. Hero is a heavy favorite to get to the top 3 by avoiding this pot. I think flatting and planning to go for it on improvement is a defendable line too. Especially if we think villain has a sizing tell here that diminishes the chances of holding AA or KK. But there is a chance of going broke against the one guy that could break you when with a fold you have more that twice the chips of any of the short stacks.

I think AQo is a fine hand to open pre in this situation, but what hero really would want here is to get involved with either the button or the small blind. Eventually hero would be able to put pressure on these stacks or even make the best hand and get the chance to bust one of them. So I think hero can have a strategy to fold this specifically to the big-blind, and still come out okay against the other players.

This is a really good play by villain if he understands tournament dynamics as well as MM indicates, and is aware of his reputation that he will play for stacks here.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Spoiler/results posted.

 

[JustinInMN]

If we are folding AQo, then villain can just 3 bet some absurd % of hands here against us.

That's a good point and I think a question to the read on villain. Is villain going to 3-betting pretty wide here?

 

[Moxie Mike]

That's a good point and I think a question to the read on villain. Is villain going to 3-betting pretty wide here?

Yes. Villain has a propensity to defend against (perceived) blind steals with a wide calling range or a wider-than normal 3-betting range. This is especially true if Villain believes he can win pots without resistance.

The dynamics of this exact stage of the tournament are what I thought made for an interesting discussion and one that doesn't come up in these threads all that often. Earlier in the tournament AQ is an easy call. Later in the tournament it's a clear jam. But in this spot - all 4 options have merit.

 

[Legend5555]

I'm going to comment on the spoiled stuff.

Given the tournament dynamics, I don't like the jam. I don't see how you get called by worse very often and you still have to protect your stack. Even if you do get called by worse, the only hand you are crushing is KdQd. The rest is overpairs, nut flish draws and KhQh. And the last thing you want to do is let the villain of the hook on their bluff. You have position, use it and try to keep things manageable. If the villain understands tournament dynamics at all, they would know that any semblance of you continuing here is very strong.

I know it's a bit of a feel bad to just call flop and get no more action with TPTK. But I don't think you get much more value with it anyway unless villain is going to barrel off as a bluff.

 

[JustinInMN]

Thoughts on the spoiler.

Spoiler: Spoiler Response

If hero decides to call pre, the rest of the hand plays itself. Given hero's read on villain is aggression and how much hero has commit to the pot, shoving for the rest is the only play that makes sense. The preflop call is atrocious if hero is unwilling to ship it on this board. It's about as safe as it gets. My guess is hero ran into 77 as played. Maybe villain had big hearts and got there as well.

 

[JustinInMN]

I know it's a bit of a feel bad to just call flop and get no more action with TPTK. But I don't think you get much more value with it anyway unless villain is going to barrel off as a bluff.

I guess I am going to pick a dispute here. But I have to ask, what boards are you continuing with if not this one? To me, if you can find a fold here, the call pre becomes even more suspect.

 

[Legend5555]

I guess I am going to pick a dispute here. But I have to ask, what boards are you continuing with if not this one? To me, if you can find a fold here, the call pre becomes even more suspect.

I'm not saying fold. I'm saying call this board. Jamming isn't great because it's too hard to get called by a worse hand. And the ones that do except for KdQd still have a lot of equity, which makes it a bad ICM play I'd think. We still have to protect our stack. It's possible we shouldn't have any raises here.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm not saying fold. I'm saying call this board. Jamming isn't great because it's too hard to get called by a worse hand. And the ones that do except for KdQd still have a lot of equity, which makes it a bad ICM play I'd think. We still have to protect our stack. It's possible we shouldn't have any raises here.

Okay, I think I see. I would be hung up on for the amounts involved, calling is pretty much committing to the pot, and I think villain still has to call pretty wide against a hero shove given the pot odds. But you call and hope to induce one more bluff on the turn instead of giving villain a chance to give up on the bluff part of range. That makes some sense.

 

[Legend5555]

Okay, I think I see. I would be hung up on for the amounts involved, calling is pretty much committing to the pot, and I think villain still has to call pretty wide against a hero shove given the pot odds. But you call and hope to induce one more bluff on the turn instead of giving villain a chance to give up on the bluff part of range. That makes some sense.

Yeah, I mean we are pretty much committed on this board. I'm not even sure we can give up on a heart turn. But at least this way we give villain a chance to bluff. And we get a decent amount of check check turns.

 

[JustinInMN]

And we get a decent amount of check check turns.

Problem is on check-check turns we will have wished we got the money in on the flop.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I'm going to comment on the spoiled stuff.

Given the tournament dynamics, I don't like the jam. I don't see how you get called by worse very often and you still have to protect your stack.

The case for jamming on this flop is the fact that it's probably all going in on a future street anyway. If HERO believes Villain has air and will barrel future streets then a call is fine but it's most likely Villain will slow down if HERO calls and the turn is a blank (if they don't have anything).

There aren't really any scary turn cards other than a King. Even a 3rd heart hitting the turn isn't enough of a scare card to get away from TPTK IMO. If Villain jams the turn, HERO is calling.

 

[Legend5555]

Problem is on check-check turns we will have wished we got the money in on the flop.

Why? What hands are we giving a free card to exactly that have a lot of equity. Presumably most of those types of hands barrel turn to try and maximize fold equity. Given our position in the tournament, I think it's dangerous to think we want to be getting all the money in here at any point without a really strong hand and a few bluffs. ICM dictates we have to play cautiously and try to manage the pot size as 2nd in chips vs 1st in chips. My plan would be to check back nearly all turns with everything except my very strong hands and a few bluffs. Problem is, there aren't a lot of bluffs to get here with that don't have decent showdown value. So it's hard to imagine having many bluffs. This is the big issue with tournament poker in spots like this, the situation forces us to have hands the majority of the time. So to balance, we have to play things in ways we wouldn't typically expect.

 

[grebe]

Skipping all comments and first thing I will say:

-your opening raise should be smaller. I start sizing down as stacks get smaller and smaller in BB's, also you are in position, which would be another reason for a smaller opening. 600-750.

-His 4X raise is HUGE. Honestly, I probably fold here and look for a better spot. Sometimes I call, but we don't need to beat this guy yet. I know usually I am more aggressive than most here, but I HATE calling a 3 bet....I would rather 4 bet, but not here.

I say fold pre.

 

[upNdown]

I know results don't matter, but I'm still curious to see what the guy had, just to see if my 4-bet could have gotten through.

 

[grebe]

Going with the spoiler stuff, since we got here and that is as good a board as we can hope for, I am probably in bluff catcher mode unless he checks to us. Only card that's scary is a K...and if he has one, there's only 3 of them. I am calling his bets to keep his whole range in tact, and if he checks to me I jam.

My guess is he had either KK or AA....given the large 3 bet and the fact that you lost (I would think AK is in a play like that as well). If he bet that large with anything else and caught lightning in a bottle, well I guess I am wrong.

 

[grebe]

I know results don't matter, but I'm still curious to see what the guy had, just to see if my 4-bet could have gotten through.

Honestly, I don't like AQ as a 4 bet. When you get called, you are never good.

 

[grebe]

The case for jamming on this flop is the fact that it's probably all going in on a future street anyway. If HERO believes Villain has air and will barrel future streets then a call is fine but it's most likely Villain will slow down if HERO calls and the turn is a blank (if they don't have anything).

There aren't really any scary turn cards other than a King. Even a 3rd heart hitting the turn isn't enough of a scare card to get away from TPTK IMO. If Villain jams the turn, HERO is calling.

This is WHY you should not be shoving flop. Let him shove here, you will have him beat more often than when you shove and he calls. We are in position....why give up that advantage by getting it all in (on the flop)?