Play this WSOP 7-card stud hand with me (1 Viewer)

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There are almost no spades left for her to have and a and it’s really hard to imagine her getting there with worse than two pair. It’s almost as unimaginable that someone competent would bluff with a worse two pair here as it is that they’d value bet with it. So fold?

It’s not impossible that she’d occasionally show up with something uncoordinated like AKs (not spades) in the hole but seems like it would likely get folded from the get go.
 

JustinInMN

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On the other, would she not give some credence to the thought of check raising when your board looks so good? Obviously a J is dead, and a couple spades. But if she checked, wouldn't you value bet good 2 pair here?
My guess is villain doesn't want to allow hero to check back, especially if he is stuck in their with a straight or flush he won't lay down. Hero also may be stuck with a big draw from villain's perspective. Hero could even have the royal draw conceivably unless she is blocking it holding a Broadway spade.
 

raynmanas

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It is REALLY hard to put V on exactly one instance of QQ, I think putting her on a range is much more useful.

oh of course, i guess i'm just struggling to understand how QQ could be part of that range as it was played. but again, my stud instincts are virtually non-existent, so that is probably what she has.
 

warma

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So fascinating. I couldn’t walk away from this one, even knowing I could be walking I to a trap. Hopefully she’s just throwing mind games.
 

bergs

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Assume that Rainman’s image is competent Stud player as well and remembering that his QQ99 was well disguised…

She’s fearlessly betting into him with a gutter and flush draw on his board, and that 3 really is a complete brick for her.

No way she things 1 pair is good here and she probably goes check call with 2 pair.

I think this is a pretty easy check fold. Maybe if one of the down cards was a spade, that might flip it into check call for me, but I think we could’ve gotten away from this last street if we bet the last small bet and she raised or if she called the last small bet and we check and she leads the first big bet.
 

FDLmold

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Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( :as::ks: ) :8s: or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
 

bergs

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Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( :as::ks: ) :8s: or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
I thought AKss was a possibility as well in the beginning (see earlier post) but it’s hard to 5 barrel in stud, particular in a limit tourney where you can’t reload and the big bets are significant to the stack sizes.

Hero’s hand didn’t look super strong till this street. Maybe it’s not JJJ888 but it sure feels like it.
 

JustinInMN

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Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( :as::ks: ) :8s: or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
Well hero just caught :ks: on 6th, so that limits that possibility. It would have to be exactly ( :as: :js: ) :8s: at this point if I am giving villain credit for any unpaired suited hand on 3rd street. And holding the :js: down with the other Jack up would help villain bet this 6th street holding half of the jacks. And from villain's perspective, the only way hero has a straight is if he started with split queens and a jack.

But yes, this is officially leveling war, does villain know she is representing a full house by betting 6th street here? I think yes. That's the only thing that would give me doubt about folding on 6th.

Otherwise, players with inferior boards in this game usually have what they are representing. I think she is representing 888 at a bare minimum (and honestly that hand would probably check-call against hero's board at this point. I think the jack filled hero up, or she has all the eights.)
 
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FDLmold

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I've changed my mind so many times reading this thread and I know this probably took place in just a couple minutes of real time. Stud is an amazing game when played on a high level and this seems like a good clash of titans here.
I love having Stud and Stud8 in my home game rotation. My players are TERRIBLE at it. Just awful. I profit even from my mediocre skills.
 

Moxie Mike

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Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets (single bet, as double bets on 4th street are no longer allowed in stud at the WSOP)
Our turn... call/raise/fold?
The case for raising is that it might slow her down and you should learn something about her hand. Chances are she's betting for information. If you call, she's probably going to put you on a one-pair hand or a FD. Raising may give you a chance to peel sixth street for free if/when she checks to you (if you elect to do so). The downside is that she 3-bets you - in which case you're probably going to end up calling down to the river.

The case for calling is that she'll probably still have the lead on 5th and will probably bet again. You're not getting away from this in all likelihood - so minimizing exposure is probably best. Call.

5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Hero call/raise/fold?...
I think at this point you're calling this down.
6th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd::3h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th::ks:

Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.

Hero?
Damn. You caught what should be a terrifying card for her and she is still betting. Maybe she holds something like :as::js: down and isn't putting you on a made flush or straight due to the obvious card removal/blockers?

If you call and need to fill up to win, a 9 on 7th street might just cost you more bets if you're up against quads or jacks full. But those are so oddly specific that they seem really unlikely.

The pot isn't large enough to chase any draws - so it comes down to how often do you like your hand in this spot?

I think I'm too stubborn to fold here. I'd call and call 7th if she fires again.
 

RainmanTrail

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This is getting vomit inducing. I can't even imagine what the semi-bluffs are at this point when you catch that good and she catches that poorly.

While she is capable of a good semi-bluff, I think my board on 6th street heavily discounts that likelihood. The only combos that are in her range that could be causing her to semi-bluff here would be something like :as::js::8s: or :ts::js::8s:. Basically, playable 3 flush hands that include the :js:, many of which are no longer an option as the :qs::9s::ks: are all on my board. I think there are only two, maybe three combos that she could have that are even remotely semi-bluff worthy, but it's not a play that I've seen her make before, and one that I don't think she would make in this spot. If she had those, it would give her JJ88, and a few spades, so she'd be much more inclined to try to let me hang myself and call down in the event that I was repping a hand I didn't have.

I feel like on the one hand, we should fold given the boards and her story. On the other, would she not give some credence to the thought of check raising when your board looks so good? Obviously a J is dead, and a couple spades. But if she checked, wouldn't you value bet good 2 pair here?

Maybe it's just a spot where if she check raises you just always fold less than a straight? So there isn't any extra value in it.

I thought about this possibility quite a bit. I actually went into the tank for a few seconds wondering why she didn't just go for the check raise. I think she was hoping that the :ks: helped me and that I'd put in a raise so that she could 3-bet (or flat and go for the check-raise on 7th). But I think she wanted 4 more bets to go in at this point, and a check raise only gets in 3.

As far as whether I'd value bet two pair here if checked to, it's close. It would really depend on my live read in the moment and who I was up against. In this particular hand, no I would not have. Remember though, she's playing against my range of possible holdings, not specifically against a two pair possibility, and my board screams flush or straight.

There are almost no spades left for her to have and a and it’s really hard to imagine her getting there with worse than two pair. It’s almost as unimaginable that someone competent would bluff with a worse two pair here as it is that they’d value bet with it. So fold?

It’s not impossible that she’d occasionally show up with something uncoordinated like AKs (not spades) in the hole but seems like it would likely get folded from the get go.

She's never showing up here with something like :ah::kh: down. She's folding that on 3rd street.

And from villain's perspective, the only way hero has a straight is if he started with split queens and a jack.

There are a ton of combos in my opening range that include a :jx:. I'm opening any 3 coordinates cards here that have the :qs: in it, and many of those include :jx:
 
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JustinInMN

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There are a ton of combos in my opening range that include a :jx:. I'm opening any 3 coordinates cards here that have the :qs: in it, and many of those include :jx:
That's true. I think what I was trying to say is only way you could have QQ and a straight is this combo, but that doesn't really make sense either. In pointing out hero has taken no aggressive action since 3rd street, villain may not even be putting hero on QQ. Given hero was in a steal position on 3rd street with only one superior door card left to act, hero should be opening somewhat widely to try and pick up the blinds and antes. I assume villain is probably aware of this as well, which is why I made the case she has to have some holdings in range that don't "beat" QQ, such as (A8)8.

I need more story!
 
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RainmanTrail

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Hero calls

5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Hero calls, hoping to either improve, or catch a good card that causes the villain to slow down. But I hate that :jd:

6th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h::jd::3h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th::ks:

Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.

This is a death blow. That :ks: was one of the worst cards in the deck for her, other than another :qx: If she had trip 888s, she'd be checking here 100% of the time. At this point, I'm convinced that she either has :jx::jx::8s::8h::jd:, :8x::jx::8s::8h::jd:, or :8c::8d::8s::8h:. There exists some chance that she could be making an Ivey level blocker bet bluff with a hand like something like :as::js::8s: or :ts::js::8s:, but that's not something I've seen from her, and even if it were in her toolbox of plays, my board is still just too strong for her pull the trigger on it. If it were someone like Jeff Madsen who reliably falls asleep at the wheel with his foot on the gas pedal in every hand, then I'd just call down the whole way and rake the pot in after he shows down a naked pair of 88s. But Christina is better than that. She's hoping to get raised with that bet on 6th street.

Hero goes into the tank for about 10 or 15 seconds, replaying everything that went down in the hand and decides that the :jd: had to help her. She's full already. I said, "Christina, do you have Jacks full of 8s or 8s full of Jacks? Do I have 2 outs, or 4? Hill is a statue. She gives me nothing. I toss my :qc::9h: in face up and say, "the :ks: didn't help me, but I'm pretty sure it saved me some money. Nice hand Christina." Matt Glantz laughs and says, "See, I told you. Nobody ever made a living value betting this guy." (a line he kept repeating all day long :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:).

After the hand, several players were debating whether it was a good fold or a bad one. Hill never said what she had, but I'm confident I made the right fold. She filled up on 5th street.
 

RainmanTrail

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Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( :as::ks: ) :8s: or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?

The :ks: is on my board, so that particular combo is out, but yes, there are some players who are capable of barreling through with a hand like this (most of them are not good). Jeff Madsen certainly would. But Hill is smarter than that. She would have slowed down possibly on 5th and certainly on 6th with a hand like that. Also, those types of players are likely to have 3bet me on 3rd street with a hand like that as well.
 

MrCatPants

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Was quietly following as my stud experience is limited to homegames, and mostly hi-lo at that. Interesting hand - thanks for posting it!
 

JustinInMN

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Matt Glantz laughs and says, "See, I told you. Nobody ever made a living value betting this guy." (a line he kept repeating all day long :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:).

Man you were dancing with all the stars in this one :)!

What are your thoughts if Hill checks and you get to check behind on 6th, and then Hill decides to bet the river and you don't improve?

What's sick about this laydown is the only way the J helps Hill is if she started with exactly ( JJ ). I think a pro is probably too good to chase ( J8 ) 8 here against an up-queen that completed, even if it's a steal spot. But maybe that's one step below ( A8 ) 8 (given K and Q are not fully live I think those kickers to split 8s are unplayable on 3rd St) and I totally see that as I said already, so maybe. But by process of elimination, that seems to be what she can have aside from ( 88 ). There's one combo of TT, one combo of QQ left, one combo of 99 left. We don't think she can have AA, or KK, and if she does, still bad news for hero. But with only one jack seen, there's three combos of that, plus one of ( 88 ), plus ( A8 ) 88 still has hero in trouble.

I think it's a good laydown in the end, but I think the card hero caught made it easier as he said.
 
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upNdown

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Yeah thanks. I appreciate the insight into stud, and I don’t mind saying I’m a pretty big WSOP fanboy, so insight into this particular game was very cool.
 

RainmanTrail

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Man you were dancing with all the stars in this one :)!

Every table in this event is like a who's who of the poker world. It was the $10k HORSE championship, so all the bracelet hunters were out. The last table I was at before I busted out, Robert Mizrachi was on my left, Ben Yu and Ben Lamb were to his left, and across from me was Shaun Deeb, then Mike Matusow to his left, and Matt Glantz between me and Matusow. And the other players at the table were probably someone "important" as well, but I don't know a lot of the names. I don't watch poker on TV. The only player I was excited to play with was Nate Silver. I got to play with him for a few hours on day 2. We both do the same type of work (building predictive models using statistics and machine learning), so we had some fun conversations talking about building models for sports and elections. Nice guy.


What are your thoughts if Hill checks and you get to check behind on 6th, and then Hill decides to bet the river and you don't improve?

I'd probably have to call and hate it in that spot. Hill checking on 6th street would have greatly improved the chances that QQ99 is good. It would push her range much closer to one of those suited connector type hands on 3rd street, as she could have just been repping a scary paired door card to get me to fold a better hand on 4th and 5th. But on 6th street, my board is just too scary for her to continue if that were the case. But if it went check check on 6th, I'd have to call 7th, because she's definitely capable of bet folding there.

What's sick about this laydown is the only way the J helps Hill is if she started with exactly ( JJ ). I think a pro is probably too good to chase ( J8 ) 8 here against an up-queen that completed, even if it's a steal spot. But maybe that's one step below ( A8 ) 8 and I totally see that as I said already, so maybe. But by process of elimination, that seems to be what she can have aside from ( 88 ). There's one combo of TT, one combo of QQ left, one combo of 99 left. We don't think she can have AA, or KK, and if she does, still bad news for hero. But with only one jack seen, there's three combos of that, plus one of ( 88 ), plus ( A8 ) 88 still has hero in trouble.

I think it's a good laydown in the end, but I think the card hero caught made it easier as he said.

Ya, I think she probably had ( :jx::jx: ) down, most likely. However, she could have had something like ( :jh::8h: ) :8s: or ( :8d::js: ) :8s: here. It's close since I was in the steal position, but ya, for the most part, she's probably folding hands like ( :jx::8x: ) :8s: on 3rd street. :ax::8x: and :kx::8x: were definitely in her range up through 5th street, but the 6th street action pretty well shut the door on those hands. It really narrowed her range there pretty heavily.
 

RainmanTrail

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I posted that she had JJ when the J peeled on 5th and she still bet, but I think Rainman blocks me and can’t say this (lololololz).

Ya, that's what I put her on. I hated the :jd: It was the most likely pair I put her on before it showed up. I was thinking she probably had JJ88 already on 4th street before it even fell. Just because I was holding the QQ, and there was a dead K and a dead T, and if she had AA or KK down, or even QQ down, she would have 3bet me on 3rd street. And she's folding a lot of her 88 hands there, as well as 99, which I was also blocking. I was hoping she had something like :7s::ts::8s: on 3rd and 4th street, which are also in her range, but by the time we got to 6th street and she was still betting into me, I had to throw those hands out.

Good read.
 

Frogzilla

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is there a metagame aspect to showing the tight fold to some folks who already pegged you as tight…did you hero some spots later?
 

JustinInMN

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I'd probably have to call and hate it in that spot. Hill checking on 6th street would have greatly improved the chances that QQ99 is good. It would push her range much closer to one of those suited connector type hands on 3rd street, as she could have just been repping a scary paired door card to get me to fold a better hand on 4th and 5th. But on 6th street, my board is just too scary for her to continue if that were the case. But if it went check check on 6th, I'd have to call 7th, because she's definitely capable of bet folding there.

I am kind of wondering if she didn't err in betting a card that is so obviously bad for her if she indeed had the goods. But again, from her perspective, if she checks, she might get 2-3 bets in over the last two streets. If she bets, she probably has a good chance of getting 3-4 bets in. And if you are checking queens-up behind, checking means she is probably playing for one bet tops.

So now here's a really tough question. Do you think if you had started with ( j9 ) Q instead of ( Q9 ) Q, do you think you could have folded a straight here?

(Also full disclosure, I do play 10/20 stud and stud-8 as part of a mix game at our local cardroom, and my first "final table" cash was in a stud event back around 2008 or so at our local cardroom tournament series, so no I won't be playing any 10Ks any time soon, just trying to say I've played more than your average hold'em nut :p.)
 

RainmanTrail

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is there a metagame aspect to showing the tight fold to some folks who already pegged you as tight…did you hero some spots later?

I often show my cards. It might be hubris, but I'm convinced that I do it strategically. I pick and choose my spots, but I'll show big bluffs and big folds. I generally do it to fuck with my opponents if I think it will either alter their perception of me or put them on tilt.
 
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