My guess is villain doesn't want to allow hero to check back, especially if he is stuck in their with a straight or flush he won't lay down. Hero also may be stuck with a big draw from villain's perspective. Hero could even have the royal draw conceivably unless she is blocking it holding a Broadway spade.On the other, would she not give some credence to the thought of check raising when your board looks so good? Obviously a J is dead, and a couple spades. But if she checked, wouldn't you value bet good 2 pair here?
It is REALLY hard to put V on exactly one instance of QQ, I think putting her on a range is much more useful.
I thought AKss was a possibility as well in the beginning (see earlier post) but it’s hard to 5 barrel in stud, particular in a limit tourney where you can’t reload and the big bets are significant to the stack sizes.Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( ) or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
Well hero just caught on 6th, so that limits that possibility. It would have to be exactly ( ) at this point if I am giving villain credit for any unpaired suited hand on 3rd street. And holding the down with the other Jack up would help villain bet this 6th street holding half of the jacks. And from villain's perspective, the only way hero has a straight is if he started with split queens and a jack.Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( ) or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
I love having Stud and Stud8 in my home game rotation. My players are TERRIBLE at it. Just awful. I profit even from my mediocre skills.I've changed my mind so many times reading this thread and I know this probably took place in just a couple minutes of real time. Stud is an amazing game when played on a high level and this seems like a good clash of titans here.
The case for raising is that it might slow her down and you should learn something about her hand. Chances are she's betting for information. If you call, she's probably going to put you on a one-pair hand or a FD. Raising may give you a chance to peel sixth street for free if/when she checks to you (if you elect to do so). The downside is that she 3-bets you - in which case you're probably going to end up calling down to the river.Hill picks up (x x)
I'm dealt ( )
Hill bets (single bet, as double bets on 4th street are no longer allowed in stud at the WSOP)
Our turn... call/raise/fold?
I think at this point you're calling this down.5th street
Hill is dealt (x x)
I'm dealt ( )
Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Damn. You caught what should be a terrifying card for her and she is still betting. Maybe she holds something like down and isn't putting you on a made flush or straight due to the obvious card removal/blockers?6th street
Hill is dealt (x x)
I'm dealt ( )
Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.
This is getting vomit inducing. I can't even imagine what the semi-bluffs are at this point when you catch that good and she catches that poorly.
I feel like on the one hand, we should fold given the boards and her story. On the other, would she not give some credence to the thought of check raising when your board looks so good? Obviously a J is dead, and a couple spades. But if she checked, wouldn't you value bet good 2 pair here?
Maybe it's just a spot where if she check raises you just always fold less than a straight? So there isn't any extra value in it.
There are almost no spades left for her to have and a and it’s really hard to imagine her getting there with worse than two pair. It’s almost as unimaginable that someone competent would bluff with a worse two pair here as it is that they’d value bet with it. So fold?
It’s not impossible that she’d occasionally show up with something uncoordinated like AKs (not spades) in the hole but seems like it would likely get folded from the get go.
And from villain's perspective, the only way hero has a straight is if he started with split queens and a jack.
That's true. I think what I was trying to say is only way you could have QQ and a straight is this combo, but that doesn't really make sense either. In pointing out hero has taken no aggressive action since 3rd street, villain may not even be putting hero on QQ. Given hero was in a steal position on 3rd street with only one superior door card left to act, hero should be opening somewhat widely to try and pick up the blinds and antes. I assume villain is probably aware of this as well, which is why I made the case she has to have some holdings in range that don't "beat" QQ, such as (A8)8.There are a ton of combos in my opening range that include a . I'm opening any 3 coordinates cards here that have the in it, and many of those include
Are we missing any higher order thinking possibilities here? Like she knows she has a strong image, knows Rain's hand is strong, she started with ( ) or something similar and is continuing the ruse, barrel after barrel, with plenty of outs to 2 pair?
Matt Glantz laughs and says, "See, I told you. Nobody ever made a living value betting this guy." (a line he kept repeating all day long ).
Man you were dancing with all the stars in this one !
What are your thoughts if Hill checks and you get to check behind on 6th, and then Hill decides to bet the river and you don't improve?
What's sick about this laydown is the only way the J helps Hill is if she started with exactly ( JJ ). I think a pro is probably too good to chase ( J8 ) 8 here against an up-queen that completed, even if it's a steal spot. But maybe that's one step below ( A8 ) 8 and I totally see that as I said already, so maybe. But by process of elimination, that seems to be what she can have aside from ( 88 ). There's one combo of TT, one combo of QQ left, one combo of 99 left. We don't think she can have AA, or KK, and if she does, still bad news for hero. But with only one jack seen, there's three combos of that, plus one of ( 88 ), plus ( A8 ) 88 still has hero in trouble.
I think it's a good laydown in the end, but I think the card hero caught made it easier as he said.
I posted that she had JJ when the J peeled on 5th and she still bet, but I think Rainman blocks me and can’t say this (lololololz).
I'd probably have to call and hate it in that spot. Hill checking on 6th street would have greatly improved the chances that QQ99 is good. It would push her range much closer to one of those suited connector type hands on 3rd street, as she could have just been repping a scary paired door card to get me to fold a better hand on 4th and 5th. But on 6th street, my board is just too scary for her to continue if that were the case. But if it went check check on 6th, I'd have to call 7th, because she's definitely capable of bet folding there.
is there a metagame aspect to showing the tight fold to some folks who already pegged you as tight…did you hero some spots later?