Play this WSOP 7-card stud hand with me (1 Viewer)

RainmanTrail

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10k HORSE event at the WSOP this year. Seven-card stud round. Every player at this table is playing pretty well, except for the 8 seat and the 2 seat, who both folded. Very few leakers.

All relevant players have chips. No short stacks.

3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

The player with the :8s: is a really strong stud player by the name of Christina Hill. I've played with her before, and was playing next to her most of day 2 in this event as well. I've never seen her make a mistake - and trust me, I'm looking for them.

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets (single bet, as double bets on 4th street are no longer allowed in stud at the WSOP)
Our turn... call/raise/fold?
 
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kirchhausen

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Call. We could be ahead of her two pair, behind her two pair, or behind her trips.

Your 9s block 3 to a straight and your wallet blocks 3 to a flush. Still possible, but less likely.

Still, 2 pair on 4th street is strong, I’m calling all the way unless another 8, Overpair to qq, or running flush cards come
 
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xdan

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feels like a 2 pair. (4-4-8-8)
probably eliminate a 6-7-8 type hand with the half the 6's being dealt out already.

definitely a call on 4th.
 

Legend5555

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Call.

We likely have the best hand a good chunk of the time as she could have a pair in the hole lower than QQ. Obviously 888 is a concern, but I feel like from a balance POV, we should be calling here almost always for both deception and because pairing a door card is pretty strong. If she hits a disconnected card on 5th, I'd likely raise for value unless she catches really well. I'd also be raising 5th if we had a flush draw or combo draw.

If we get 3 bet it will suck, but we can't assume her range is just only better hands for value. And if she doesn't have better than just 88, then we aren't going to get much more value going forward unless she makes 2 pair. So getting value on 5 seems like the best way to get it. It is a legit concern though that 5, 6, 6, T, 9, 9, Q including Qs and 9s are dead, as it really reduces her ability to be on strong draws.
 

Jimulacrum

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She's a world-class Stud player who cold-called your raise with no other action, in a pot that looked like it would go heads-up. Her outs are all live, and so are yours (that she knows about). If there were some kind of unusual dynamic between you, I expect you'd have said so, so more than likely this is a hand being played for its own strength (i.e., not as a float or to block your ante steals). What hands does this type of player have here?

(Also, what are stack sizes? In the meantime, I'll assume the stakes are meaningfully threatening and no one's just splashing around at this point.)

Calling with the bare pair of 8s (one in the door) trying to spike a set in a heads-up pot would be too weak for a top player, so I actually wouldn't expect trips here. Rolled up trips that just made quads, perhaps, but not the bare pair of 8s for openers.

I started off thinking about a raise here, and then a call, but now that I've thought this through, I'd be tempted to fold straight off. Against the player you have described in this situation, I'm expecting that cold-call to have been a trap. She saw your queen up, interpreted it correctly as a pair of queens, and flatted with a hand that had a pair of queens beat already—basically just AA, KK, or 88 in the hole. When the 8 came on fourth, she had to bet because checking would be way more suspicious, even if that means donking with quads.

Especially with the way you described her. You've been watching carefully and she hasn't made a mistake. Wouldn't it have been a mistake for her to call with virtually anything that didn't have you beat already (and thus has you beat now)?

Yeah, I'm saying fold fourth street. When you fill up and lose to quads, I'll be here to quote this post in my reply.

One of my biggest considerations here is that even if my whole analysis is wrong and you're ahead (or it's right but you improve), it's not like this player is going to be easy money. But if she's ahead (which I expect most of the time), you could find yourself trapped badly.
 

JustinInMN

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Boy that 4th Street card sucks. If villain doesn't have 888, you pretty have to hope it's JJ or TT in the hole. ( Guess the good news is kk is partially blocked, based on 3rd street folds. But so is a T I suppose.)

Thing with stud, if we are planning to station, it's four more streets, three of which are at the big bet.

This is just an awful spot. At least hero has a live full house draw.
 

JustinInMN

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Calling with the bare pair of 8s (one in the door) trying to spike a set in a heads-up pot would be too weak for a top player, so I actually wouldn't expect trips here. Rolled up trips that just made quads, perhaps, but not the bare pair of 8s for openers.
I will give her credit for 88A, since the kicker is an over card to the board.

It's hard for me to give credit for AA88 without a 3rd street raise, or KK88 for the same reason, plus it's partially blocked.

At the same time the 4th Street donk lead screams I can beat QQ. So is it JJ88 or TT88 or maaaaaybe 7788, or is it A888?

Boy now it does seem there is more inferior two pairs than trips, but both lists are so short.
 

Jimulacrum

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I will give her credit for 88A, since the kicker is an over card to the board.

It's hard for me to give credit for AA88 without a 3rd street raise, or KK88 for the same reason, plus it's partially blocked.

At the same time the 4th Street donk lead screams I can beat QQ. So is it JJ88 or TT88 or maaaaaybe 7788, or is it A888?

Boy now it does seem there is more inferior two pairs than trips, but both lists are so short.
Do you really see a world-class Stud player flatting a raise in that spot with an underpair to queens? Unless the antes are obscene or something, I just don't see a player like that chasing a hand like that.

I agree with you about AA or KK as well. I'd expect a reraise from those hands.

If I had to stop and call her hand right now, I think she was rolled up and caught the quads. This is probably a little premature, but it feels that way from third street. This player doesn't get sloppy, from OP's description, but flatting a raise like that would be sloppy if it weren't a trap, which tells me this is a trap.

What's she trapping with, if KK and AA would warrant a reraise?

She was probably upset when she spiked the quads because she thought it might kill her action.

I suppose we could talk about A88 too. Maybe that's the cusp of her calling range there, at worst. But that's still a fold.
 
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JustinInMN

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She was probably upset when she spiked the quads because she thought it might kill her action.
I guess the reason she would lead 4th street is her broader strategy is to almost lead when she pairs the door card. There's just nothing here that makes sense that fits the image though.

But I have read some stud books that do mention a live overcard to the board in the hole with a split pair is an okay call spot. In this case I could see a skilled villain making this call because
1) villain will likely get it heads up with only the :3c: bring in to act.
2) villain will likely keep position on Hero unless she improves

And without shared cards in stud, pair-vs-pair is hardly as damning as it is in hold'em.

That said, if there were a :Kx: left to act, or if she were acting right after hero and not as close to closing the action, then I can buy split-eights is too loose.

But if hero completing with the queen showing signals villain should throw everything away that doesn't beat queens, there is literally nothing to put her on, unless she is flatting KK (which is partially blocked) or AA.

I suppose we could talk about A88 too. Maybe that's the cusp of her calling range there, at worst. But that's still a fold.
I do agree if this is in her calling range, it's probably the bottom. No other kicker would make sense. Kings, Queens, and Tens are not live. Jack is an undercard to the completion. Otherwise she had a wired pair AA-TT, and hero beats half of those.
 

bergs

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Trying to think of the best case scenario - maybe AKhh and maybe picked up a flush draw with her pair?

I might raise here and try to buy a free card on 5th, and you can reassess based on her action and the up cards.
 

Jimulacrum

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Trying to think of the best case scenario - maybe AKhh and maybe picked up a flush draw with her pair?
I could maybe see :as::ks:, for 2 likely overs and 3 to a flush. Put that in the vicinity of A88 near the bottom of her range. But it's a much thinner call than the handful of hands I think are firmly in the range of a solid player here (88, AA, KK, in that order), especially with a king out already.

Stud doesn't reward playing speculative openers the way flop games sometimes do. Stud players are nitty because, short of weird stuff like gigantic antes, insane opponents, or endgame tourney situations, that's what gets the money.

If our player bio for Villain is that she's a Stud pro, I just don't see her throwing away 5K here to defend this pot in this position with anything that's beaten by queens. It's limit poker, there's barely anything to win in the pot, and from OP's description the game was tight and she wouldn't expect more calls. Her flat call feels like a trap through and through. The bet on fourth says nothing because it's practically mandatory. Regardless of that, if she had Hero beat on third, she has him beat when her door card pairs too.

I'll hedge my prediction on the possibility that Villain saw some table image in Hero that led her to make some kind of exploitative move. But short of extreme cases that Hero has not mentioned, there's not as much value in that kind of thing in Stud as there is in carefully tracking known cards, using logic, and playing the odds.
 

Jimulacrum

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But I have read some stud books that do mention a live overcard to the board in the hole with a split pair is an okay call spot. In this case I could see a skilled villain making this call because
1) villain will likely get it heads up with only the :3c: bring in to act.
2) villain will likely keep position on Hero unless she improves
This is true. Sometimes you do want to play with a pair and an over, which here would only mean A88 because a king is out. But it's still a marginal spot, and the type I wouldn't expect an experienced Stud tournament player to play very often. There are just way better places to gamble than a small pot with no dead money against a hand that already beats you.

And without shared cards in stud, pair-vs-pair is hardly as damning as it is in hold'em.
Sure, but it's not a great match-up either, and at least Hold'em gives you 3 cards to spike a set on the next round. Stud doesn't offer nearly as much incentive to speculate with beaten openers. You may find yourself pair over pair from time to time because of a hidden pair or a big pot that justified a call, but in general—and especially in pots with minimal action and nothing special going on—you shouldn't seek to play a pair that you fully expect to be smaller than your opponent's.
 

FDLmold

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I like a call to see 5th street. I can't limit her range to only AA, KK, and 88 and fold to one small bet yet. We beat everything else beyond that range. We are getting 5 to 1 on our bet with live outs. We are about 1 in 10 of boating up on 5th street. Us catching a T, J, or spade might slow her down on 5th as well and we may get a free card.
 

mack10man

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I would have called the rest of the way. Your crushing her two pair except aces and eights and kings and eights, and if she does has trip eights, you still have four outs to boat up.
 

RainmanTrail

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Our turn... call/raise/fold?

This was a close decision for me between a call and a raise. I heavily discounted the likelihood that she'd have 3 8s here. There just aren't very many 88 combos that are in her calling range. If she were a worse player, I'd give her much more credit for 888, but she's not calling with most split 8s. Hands like ( :8c::5h:):8s: are going in the muck from her in this spot. If she were the bring-in and I were the last high card to act, then she might defend with something like that, but in this spot, she's definitely folding weaker split 88 here. The fact that the :kc: (Ben Yu) was still behind me when I raised 3rd street with my :qs: in the door also makes it less likely that I'd be raising light here. Her range is fairly narrow here. She's calling with hands like ( :ad::8h: ) :8s: , ( :kh: :8h: ) :8s: , ( :jd: :js: ) :8s: , ( :ts: :9s: ) :8s: , etc. And she's reraising hands like ( :ah: :as: ) :8s: and ( :kh: :kc: ) :8s: . She probably mixes it up between calling and reraising ( :8h: :8d: ) :8s: and possibly even some of her stronger calling hands, as she does have a strong incentive to be reraising here on 3rd street as I'm technically still in steal position and could be raising with hands like ( :9h: :9d: ) :qs: , ( :8s: :7s: ) :qs: , ( :th: :kd: ) :qs: in addition to my split QQ hands. But she also knows me well enough to know that I'm not opening here with trash.

If she weren't a good player, I'd be much more inclined to give her credit for split 88s here, but I've played with her enough to know that she doesn't have that leak, so when she pairs her door card on 4th street, I'm discounting the likelihood of her having trips here fairly heavily.

It was a close decision for me between raising her for information and just calling. The problem though is that she isn't likely to give me the information I'm looking for. She's not going to 3-bet me even if she does have 888. And she's also probably not giving me free cards on future streets. I can't exploit her here because, as I mentioned, she doesn't really have any leaks in stud hi. So, I decided to do what every Hollywooding poker player does and I subtly grab enough chips for the raise, pause briefly, decide against it, and put half of them back and toss out enough chips to just call the bet. I wanted her to think that I just improved my "flush draw" and/or "straight draw" since the :9s: definitely improves a fairly wide portion of my raising range with my :qs: in the door, because I would definitely be raising a flush draw on 4th street if she were first to act and hadn't paired her door card.

So... I call


5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Hero call/raise/fold?...
 
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davislane

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Our turn... call/raise/fold?

This was a close decision for me between a call and a raise. I heavily discounted the likelihood that she'd have 3 8s here. There just aren't very many 88 combos that are in her calling range. If she were a worse player, I'd give her much more credit for 888, but she's not calling with most split 8s. Hands like ( :8c::5h:):8s: are going in the muck from her in this spot. If she were the bring-in and I were the last high card to act, then she might defend with something like that, but in this spot, she's definitely folding weaker split 88 here. The fact that the :kc: (Ben Yu) was still behind me when I raised 3rd street with my :qs: in the door also makes it less likely that I'd be raising light here. Her range is fairly narrow here. She's calling with hands like ( :ad::8h: ) :8s: , ( :kh: :8h: ) :8s: , ( :jd: :js: ) :8s: , ( :ts: :9s: ) :8s: , etc. And she's reraising hands like ( :ah: :as: ) :8s: and ( :kh: :kc: ) :8s: . She probably mixes it up between calling and reraising ( :8h: :8d: ) :8s: and possibly even some of her stronger calling hands, as she does have a strong incentive to be reraising here on 3rd street as I'm technically still in steal position and could be raising with hands like ( :9h: :9d: ) :qs: , ( :8s: :7s: ) :qs: , ( :th: :kd: ) :qs: in addition to my split QQ hands. But she also knows me well enough to know that I'm not opening here with trash.

If she weren't a good player, I'd be much more inclined to give her credit for split 88s here, but I've played with her enough to know that she doesn't have that leak, so when she pairs her door card on 4th street, I'm discounting the likelihood of her having trips here fairly heavily.

It was a close decision for me between raising her for information and just calling. The problem though is that she isn't likely to give me the information I'm looking for. She's not going to 3-bet me even if she does have 888. And she's also probably not giving me free cards on future streets. I can't exploit her here because, as I mentioned, she doesn't really have any leaks in stud hi. So, I decided to do what every Hollywooding poker player does and I subtly grab enough chips for the raise, pause briefly, decide against it, and put half of them back and toss out enough chips to just call the bet. I wanted her to think that I just improved my "flush draw" and/or "straight draw" since the :9s: definitely improves a fairly wide portion of my raising range with my :qs: in the door, because I would definitely be raising a flush draw on 4th street if she were first to act and hadn't paired her door card.

So... I call


5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Hero call/raise/fold?...
All in! :cool
 

Legend5555

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I'm sticking with what I said earlier. I'd raise 5th. We are only behind K888, A888, 8888, and JJJ88. It's still a little awkward that many of the cards we want her to have in the hole are dead. If we don't raise, we are pretty committed to calling down since we have what seems like 7 clean outs unless she actually is full.
 
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