Play this WSOP 7-card stud hand with me (1 Viewer)

FDLmold

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Everybody is getting cards that smash their ranges today. Interesting hand. Call 4th call 5th call 6th call 7th is a pusillanimous way to finish the hand, hero should raise somewhere, right?
 

JustinInMN

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As to the hand, I've already folded, but if you're bringing me along to fifth street, I'll raise here. Hopefully she'll reraise so I can fold again.
I think I kinda like a raise fold/ line again, but what if villain has no 3 bets here?..

It's 3 big bets to station at this point. But villain caught good unless we think villain has a lot of 3-spade hands too. (Something @RainmanTrail brought up in his last post that no one considered.

Ummm.... No. You can bet/raise the current big bet. This is limit.
I think the sarcasm font doesn't work on your device.

Everybody is getting cards that smash their ranges today. Interesting hand. Call 4th call 5th call 6th call 7th is a pusillanimous way to finish the hand, hero should raise somewhere, right?
I guess stationing is where I am at this point. If hero is discounting 888, then villain has Jacks-full, or an inferior 2-pair, or some sort of draw she is turning into a bluff.

But if we station, we are planning to put 30k in this pot that will total 90k at the end. I guess we have to decide now, are we good 33ish% of the time?
 

Legend5555

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Given how few people play stud on a regular basis, and that I've seen several people talk about playing it pot Limit in dealers choice leads me to not want to assume someone is being sarcastic in this instance.
 

JustinInMN

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Given how few people play stud on a regular basis, and that I've seen several people talk about playing it pot Limit in dealers choice leads me to not want to assume someone is being sarcastic in this instance.

https://www.tzr.io/yarn-clip/4a372e76-86a0-4b38-b053-a46b6d710000

1656506555062.png
 

upNdown

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Given how few people play stud on a regular basis, and that I've seen several people talk about playing it pot Limit in dealers choice leads me to not want to assume someone is being sarcastic in this instance.
That particular guy has published a few books on poker, so . . .
 

Frogzilla

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Also if the read is correct that split 8s are almost never in the 3rd street range;l, both 5th st cards are really bad news damn it I fold here too. This is contagious. I need to unsub stat
 

buzzmonkey

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My stud is rusty because nobody ever wants to play it anymore so mark my opinion as intermediate at best. So the big change here is that there's another pocket pair that beats you, in jacks. Otherwise her holdings are the pretty much the same. There's also less of a chance that she had jacks to begin with. You're probably not folding at this point so is the hand worth three bigs to you now.

The pot is just over 20k, and it will cost you 30k more to add ~50k to your stack. I'd say if you beat at least 40% of the hands you confidently can put her on you call it down. Now that you're on 5th st, I don't think there's any need to raise this hand unless you boat up.

Love having a stud hand to analyze though. :)
 

kirchhausen

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Well the J hits one of the hands you said she is probably calling with, the others were (x8)88. I could find a fold here, she is betting 10k into a 20kish pot if my math is correct. I just don't know what she would be doing this with worse hands.
 

bergs

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I said out loud “no Ten, no Jack” before reading that. I hate that J but laying down your hand here would be a bit of a hero fold.
 

Legend5555

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So after her bet pot is 4BB. I know I said raise, but I can really see an argument for calling as well. Stud is not my favorite game, but I tend to go for thin value in all limit games when I think it's there. I can't really see folding getting 4 to 1. Nor can I really see folding 6th except to a terrible 6th street.

Unless we think we are going to get 3 bet here, the merit to raising is we should pretty often get checked to on 6th assuming we don't improve our board and can then play accordingly. It costs us the same as calling 5th and calling 6th. Downside is it does open us to getting 3 bet. Seems close to me. But as I said, stud Hi isn't my fav.
 

kirchhausen

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So after her bet pot is 4BB. I know I said raise, but I can really see an argument for calling as well. Stud is not my favorite game, but I tend to go for thin value in all limit games when I think it's there. I can't really see folding getting 4 to 1. Nor can I really see folding 6th except to a terrible 6th street.

Unless we think we are going to get 3 bet here, the merit to raising is we should pretty often get checked to on 6th assuming we don't improve our board and can then play accordingly. It costs us the same as calling 5th and calling 6th. Downside is it does open us to getting 3 bet. Seems close to me. But as I said, stud Hi isn't my fav.
I know its 4-1, but what do you think is in V's range? How many of those hands are we beating?
 

JustinInMN

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I know its 4-1, but what do you think is in V's range? How many of those hands are we beating?
You might be able to fold 6th Street if we have some reason to believe villain is always barrelling trips and full houses, but has a stopping point with two pair.

But this is the trap in stud. It's 4-1 now, but it's basically 6-3 by the end of villain barrels every street.
 

kirchhausen

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You might be able to fold 6th Street if have some reason to believe villain is always barrelling trips and full houses, but has a stopping point with two pair.
What wired pair do you think V could have here? There is a T, 6, 6, 5, 3 shown. 6 combos of AA, 6 of KK, one of QQ, 3 of JJ, 3 of TT? So we are beating 4/18 of those hands? What else could V have, possible trip or even quad 8s? Anything else at this point? Maybe :js:X:spades:?
 

Legend5555

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What wired pair do you think V could have here? There is a T, 6, 6, 5, 3 shown. 6 combos of AA, 6 of KK, one of QQ, 3 of JJ, 3 of TT? So we are beating 4/18 of those hands? What else could V have, possible trip or even quad 8s? Anything else at this point? Maybe :js:X:spades:?
We also have 4 outs for sure and likely 7 in addition to maybe just being good right now.
 

JustinInMN

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What wired pair do you think V could have here? There is a T, 6, 6, 5, 3 shown. 6 combos of AA, 6 of KK, one of QQ, 3 of JJ, 3 of TT? So we are beating 4/18 of those hands? What else could V have, possible trip or even quad 8s? Anything else at this point?
I really don't know. I think we are hung up on the 4th st donk means two pair or better, the question is does it beat queens up?

And the J just hit one of the hands we didn't want villain to have. We are going for TT (which is also partially blocked), maybe QQ (one combo left). KK, AA, (though that requires a lack of raise on 3rd street) and split 8s on 3rd st are all bad, but we don't know how many of those hands and "expert" would play.

Even knowing calling 3 times is a 2-1 proposition from this point, it's tough to both put villain on things we can beat, and thinga villain can have that win.
 

RainmanTrail

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Our turn... call/raise/fold?

5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill bets
I call

6th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd::3h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th::ks:

Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.

Hero?
 

kirchhausen

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I really don't know. I think we are hung up on the 4th st donk means two pair or better, the question is does it beat queens up?

And the J just hit one of the hands we didn't want villain to have. We are going for TT (which is also partially blocked), maybe QQ (one combo left). KK, AA, (though that requires a lack of raise on 3rd street) and split 8s on 3rd st are all bad, but we don't know how many of those hands and "expert" would play.

Even knowing calling 3 times is a 2-1 proposition from this point, it's tough to both put villain on things we can beat, and thinga villain can have that win.
I really think that V has JJ, QQ, jx :spades: :spades: ,88, A8 (possibly) down. I dunno, maybe with the various jx:spades::spades: combos we need to call. I am certainly never raising.
 

kirchhausen

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Our turn... call/raise/fold?

5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill bets
I call

6th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd::3h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th::ks:

Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.

Hero?
No way that the 3 helped V. If you are calling before I guess you are still calling? I hate it, though. You have 4 to a straight showing, and obviously have something going on with your hand, and she is still betting into you.
 

raynmanas

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I really think that V has JJ, QQ, jx :spades: :spades: ,88, A8 (possibly) down. I dunno, maybe with the various jx:spades::spades: combos we need to call. I am certainly never raising.

agree except for QQ (and with my instincts, that is probably exactly what she has).

or as someone mentioned earlier she just thinks she has picked up a read on OP and can get him off a hand.

certainly a very interesting hand to follow.
 

kirchhausen

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agree except for QQ (and with my instincts, that is probably exactly what she has).

or as someone mentioned earlier she just thinks she has picked up a read on OP and can get him off a hand.

certainly a very interesting hand to follow.
Certainly possible about the read, but Travis is a pretty solid player (so I've heard) and she probably is aware of this if she has seen him play for any amount of time at the table.

It is REALLY hard to put V on exactly one instance of QQ, I think putting her on a range is much more useful.
 

JustinInMN

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6th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd::3h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th::ks:

Hill looks over at my board, again pauses briefly, and again bets into me.

Hero?
Wow, Again, that's strong. This bet screams she's blocking jacks heavily or isn't worried about a straight or a flush. Just a question of if she has one or two down.

Seriously, this is a classic slow down card for villain if she has two pair, I'm having a hard time giving her credit for a bluff now. I think this is where I get off and lay it down. There's a slight chance we are drawing dead if @Jimulacrum was right on 4th street. I think Villain's bet screams she can beat a straight or a flush. (Note hero just made a flush if he started with two spades down with the queen.) Maybe she is running a "bluff" with 888 and a very live full house draw (aces, jacks, and threes are all pretty live, only one dead 3 from 3rd street) In which case hero has four clean outs out of 36 unseen cards. If villain has Jacks full, it's only two outs for hero. It's really hard for me to put villain on JJ88 only because that would mean she left the gate with 3 unpaired cards, at least two of which were below the queen which hero showed on 3rd street and then completed.

Maybe it's TT88 for villain that's she's turning into a bluff? Hero hasn't taken an aggressive action since 3rd street, maybe she just somehow thinks villain only has QQ and still trying to improve? Even this feels like a stretch.

I think part of calling 5th is to see if villain is ever going to slow down. If she's betting when hero catches a card that makes a straight or a flush, I think this is the data point that could lead to a fold.

The only way for hero to continue is if he gives villain credit for trying to exploit him in this spot. It's hard for me to think this could have been villain's plan though.
 
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Legend5555

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I mean we MAY have 4 outs. If v has JJ we have 2 outs, if v has 8888 we have only runner runner outs. What are the 7 additional outs you mentioned?
Poorly worded. Not 7 additional, 7 total of you count the gutter. Likely 7, in addition to maybe just our hand being good.
 

Legend5555

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This is getting vomit inducing. I can't even imagine what the semi-bluffs are at this point when you catch that good and she catches that poorly.

I feel like on the one hand, we should fold given the boards and her story. On the other, would she not give some credence to the thought of check raising when your board looks so good? Obviously a J is dead, and a couple spades. But if she checked, wouldn't you value bet good 2 pair here?

Maybe it's just a spot where if she check raises you just always fold less than a straight? So there isn't any extra value in it.

Weird spot. I really don't know whether to fold or call down.
 

Jimulacrum

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3rd street

Bring-in (x x) :3c:
It gets folded around to me (dead cards were a T, 6, 6, 5)
I look down at ( :qc::9h:) :qs:
Left to act is the :kc: and the :8s:.

Obviously, I complete the bet, raising it to $5k.

:kc: folds
:8s: calls
:3c: folds

4th street

Hill picks up (x x) :8s::8h:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s:

Hill bets
Our turn... call/raise/fold?

This was a close decision for me between a call and a raise. I heavily discounted the likelihood that she'd have 3 8s here. There just aren't very many 88 combos that are in her calling range. If she were a worse player, I'd give her much more credit for 888, but she's not calling with most split 8s. Hands like ( :8c::5h:):8s: are going in the muck from her in this spot. If she were the bring-in and I were the last high card to act, then she might defend with something like that, but in this spot, she's definitely folding weaker split 88 here. The fact that the :kc: (Ben Yu) was still behind me when I raised 3rd street with my :qs: in the door also makes it less likely that I'd be raising light here. Her range is fairly narrow here. She's calling with hands like ( :ad::8h: ) :8s: , ( :kh: :8h: ) :8s: , ( :jd: :js: ) :8s: , ( :ts: :9s: ) :8s: , etc. And she's reraising hands like ( :ah: :as: ) :8s: and ( :kh: :kc: ) :8s: . She probably mixes it up between calling and reraising ( :8h: :8d: ) :8s: and possibly even some of her stronger calling hands, as she does have a strong incentive to be reraising here on 3rd street as I'm technically still in steal position and could be raising with hands like ( :9h: :9d: ) :qs: , ( :8s: :7s: ) :qs: , ( :th: :kd: ) :qs: in addition to my split QQ hands. But she also knows me well enough to know that I'm not opening here with trash.

If she weren't a good player, I'd be much more inclined to give her credit for split 88s here, but I've played with her enough to know that she doesn't have that leak, so when she pairs her door card on 4th street, I'm discounting the likelihood of her having trips here fairly heavily.

It was a close decision for me between raising her for information and just calling. The problem though is that she isn't likely to give me the information I'm looking for. She's not going to 3-bet me even if she does have 888. And she's also probably not giving me free cards on future streets. I can't exploit her here because, as I mentioned, she doesn't really have any leaks in stud hi. So, I decided to do what every Hollywooding poker player does and I subtly grab enough chips for the raise, pause briefly, decide against it, and put half of them back and toss out enough chips to just call the bet. I wanted her to think that I just improved my "flush draw" and/or "straight draw" since the :9s: definitely improves a fairly wide portion of my raising range with my :qs: in the door, because I would definitely be raising a flush draw on 4th street if she were first to act and hadn't paired her door card.

So... I call


5th street

Hill is dealt (x x) :8s::8h::jd:
I'm dealt ( :qc::9h:) :qs::9s::th:

Hill glances down, looks over at my board, pauses briefly, and bets into me again.
Hero call/raise/fold?...

Yeah, I'm saying fold fourth street. When you fill up and lose to quads, I'll be here to quote this post in my reply.
Are we there yet?
 
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